Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

[Cyclone Tracy]

Let’s see where this thread takes us. 3 surface and upper cut off lows, multiple surface and upper troughs over the next 6 days across the country. Rain, storms and wind is in order. 1st cab off the rank is a subtropical low that moves into the North Island region tomorrow. Models suggest this will be the most widespread rainfall week in a long time.

Image is GFS rainfall over the next 6 days.

[tornado]

Bring it on hopefully natural fireworks aka thunderstorms in the mix as well. Haha

[NZstorm]

Todays rainfall totals according to the latest run of EU for the wider Auckland region. Yes, hopefully a thunderstorm in the mix as well.

[tornado]

Moderate rain starting now. Was supposed to be having fireworks with family but that can wait till tomorrow. If a thunderstorm is occurring or still raining tonight. But people will still set fireworks off. Anyway

[Nev]

For posterity... (like where MS have got their arrow pointing...lol)

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:44am Thursday 5 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Thursday 5 Nov 2020

A low and associated rain-band will move southwards over northern and central New Zealand today, while other rain-bands affect the South Island west coast, and also the southern South Island later today. Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are in force for many parts of northern New Zealand, and also Westland and the Southern Alps.

In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms is either behind or on the back edge of the northern rain-band as it moves southwards. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland this afternoon and evening, about Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty this evening or tonight, and eastern Bay of Plenty tonight. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by rainfall rates of 15-25mm/h (or possibly more).

In the South Island, a southerly wind change is likely to produce a few thunderstorms this afternoon about parts of Otago, mainly inland and in North Otago, with a broader lower risk as indicated on the chart. There is also a low risk of a few embedded thunderstorms about the Westland ranges this morning and afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur in these areas will be accompanied by localised heavy rain.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand today.

MetService T-storm Outlook - Nov 5, 8.42am.png

[spwill]

Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.

[tornado]

Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.

If there is lightning and thunder then it will be a good guy fawkes fireworks show in the sky lol. Yes good instability tonight.

[Chris W]

This is your PV meets Nina moment CT, sparks starting to fly.

[David]

Great rain for soaking in to the ground, up to 9mm so far.

[Cyclone Tracy]

East to north easterly is picking up here. Now up to 13mm. (edit 20mm now)

[Nev]

Waterspout off Papamoa this morning…
https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255484-f ... pamoa.html

Edit: Probably the same waterspout filmed from Mt Maungnaui? ...
https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255502-t ... -days.html

[tornado]

Waterspout off Papamoa this morning…

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255484-f ... pamoa.html

not surprised. papamoa had a tornado in june due to a suptropical low so not surprised really.

[Awhituobs]

24mm for us so far.great

[tornado]

25mm here. good old rain. yay. a good guy fawkes rain lol

[David]

Early clearance on radar? Thought we were expecting the worst of it this evening. 22mm of moderate rain here today

[tornado]

What do anyone reakon about tonight's thunder chance?

[Cyclone Tracy]

29.4mm locally. A very nice drop for the 1st round, would expect more showers early tomorrow morning when the low drags south. Convergence zone peaked off the gulf into SE Auckland. 126mm for Clevedon and importantly 76mm so far at Mangatangi Dam.

[David]

Not sure I believe that 126 reading? Highest I can see anywhere close to that location on Wunderground is approx 40mm (and nothing particularly heavy ever showed on the radar either...)

[Cyclone Tracy]

There is also a 99mm at a PWS on the North Shore at Greenhithe, 84mm Albany, there was plenty of moisture aloft so isolated downpours were possible. Mangatangi dam now at 80mm.

[Awhituobs]

Manukau heights

20201105_172325.jpg

[NZstorm]

32mm in Grey Lynn.

An isolated cb/ts still on the cards this evening if there is decent enough convergence.

[David]

59km/h gust this afternoon is the highest on my station since mid July. Not been a lot of windy weather the last few months as is often typical in Spring.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Some bubbling clouds on sunset over the Tasman as the low wraps around. Starting to show up on radar to the west of Auckland slowly heading east.

[wre1991]

93mm in Waihi

[Nev]

Looks like T-storms fired up around the inland East Cape area earlier this morning, along with a few around inland south Otago yesterday afternoon.

39mm here in the last 30 hrs or so, and a few branches down around the island by the looks.