Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

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Cyclone Tracy
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Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Let’s see where this thread takes us. 3 surface and upper cut off lows, multiple surface and upper troughs over the next 6 days across the country. Rain, storms and wind is in order. 1st cab off the rank is a subtropical low that moves into the North Island region tomorrow. Models suggest this will be the most widespread rainfall week in a long time.

Image is GFS rainfall over the next 6 days.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by tornado »

Bring it on hopefully natural fireworks aka thunderstorms in the mix as well. Haha
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Todays rainfall totals according to the latest run of EU for the wider Auckland region. Yes, hopefully a thunderstorm in the mix as well.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

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Moderate rain starting now. Was supposed to be having fireworks with family but that can wait till tomorrow. If a thunderstorm is occurring or still raining tonight. But people will still set fireworks off. Anyway
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Nev »

For posterity... (like where MS have got their arrow pointing...lol) :smile:
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:44am Thursday 5 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Thursday 5 Nov 2020

A low and associated rain-band will move southwards over northern and central New Zealand today, while other rain-bands affect the South Island west coast, and also the southern South Island later today. Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are in force for many parts of northern New Zealand, and also Westland and the Southern Alps.

In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms is either behind or on the back edge of the northern rain-band as it moves southwards. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland this afternoon and evening, about Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty this evening or tonight, and eastern Bay of Plenty tonight. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by rainfall rates of 15-25mm/h (or possibly more).

In the South Island, a southerly wind change is likely to produce a few thunderstorms this afternoon about parts of Otago, mainly inland and in North Otago, with a broader lower risk as indicated on the chart. There is also a low risk of a few embedded thunderstorms about the Westland ranges this morning and afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur in these areas will be accompanied by localised heavy rain.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand today.

MetService T-storm Outlook - Nov 5, 8.42am.png
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by spwill »

Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.
Last edited by spwill on Thu 05/11/2020 09:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by tornado »

spwill wrote: Thu 05/11/2020 09:16 Hopefully a thunderstorm can be generated in our area this evening, plenty of instability showing this evening.
If there is lightning and thunder then it will be a good guy fawkes fireworks show in the sky lol. Yes good instability tonight. :-o
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

This is your PV meets Nina moment CT, sparks starting to fly.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by David »

Great rain for soaking in to the ground, up to 9mm so far.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

East to north easterly is picking up here. Now up to 13mm. (edit 20mm now)
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Nev »

Waterspout off Papamoa this morning…
https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255484-f ... pamoa.html

Edit: Probably the same waterspout filmed from Mt Maungnaui? ...
https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255502-t ... -days.html
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

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Nev wrote: Thu 05/11/2020 13:31 Waterspout off Papamoa this morning…

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/255484-f ... pamoa.html

not surprised. papamoa had a tornado in june due to a suptropical low so not surprised really.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Awhituobs »

24mm for us so far.great
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

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25mm here. good old rain. yay. a good guy fawkes rain lol
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by David »

Early clearance on radar? Thought we were expecting the worst of it this evening. 22mm of moderate rain here today
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by tornado »

What do anyone reakon about tonight's thunder chance?
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

29.4mm locally. A very nice drop for the 1st round, would expect more showers early tomorrow morning when the low drags south. Convergence zone peaked off the gulf into SE Auckland. 126mm for Clevedon and importantly 76mm so far at Mangatangi Dam.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by David »

Not sure I believe that 126 reading? Highest I can see anywhere close to that location on Wunderground is approx 40mm (and nothing particularly heavy ever showed on the radar either...)
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

There is also a 99mm at a PWS on the North Shore at Greenhithe, 84mm Albany, there was plenty of moisture aloft so isolated downpours were possible. Mangatangi dam now at 80mm.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Manukau heights
20201105_172325.jpg
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

32mm in Grey Lynn.

An isolated cb/ts still on the cards this evening if there is decent enough convergence.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by David »

59km/h gust this afternoon is the highest on my station since mid July. Not been a lot of windy weather the last few months as is often typical in Spring.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Some bubbling clouds on sunset over the Tasman as the low wraps around. Starting to show up on radar to the west of Auckland slowly heading east.
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

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93mm in Waihi
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Re: Low pressure sequence 5 -11 Nov

Unread post by Nev »

Looks like T-storms fired up around the inland East Cape area earlier this morning, along with a few around inland south Otago yesterday afternoon.

39mm here in the last 30 hrs or so, and a few branches down around the island by the looks.
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