Intense Tasman Low - Nov 24-26

[spwill]

Dewpoint 18C now with low stratus but can see patches blue sky. Hopefully some good heating this morning.

A little bit of sunshine here now, heavy showers currently near the Auckland west coast

[Nev]

MS's T-Storm update for today now includes Akld in the high risk area…

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:59am Wednesday 25 Nov 2020
Valid to Midnight Wednesday 25 Nov 2020

Strong moist northwesterlies with embedded troughs and fronts affect the upper and central North Island today.

This morning, this afternoon and early evening there is a high risk of thunderstorms in Auckland, the west of Coromandel, Waikato, Waitomo, Taranaki, inland Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taumarunui, Taupo and the north of Taihape as indicated on the chart. These storms could be accompanied by heavy rain and there is a moderate risk of SEVERE thunderstorms with downpours, 25 to 40mm per hour. There could also be hail, strong wind gusts of 80 to 100 km/h and localised small tornadoes.

This morning and into the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Northland. These storms could be accompanied buy heavy rain, 10 to 25mm+, strong wind gusts of 80 to 100 km/h and localised small tornadoes.

This afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the east of the Coromandel Peninsula, coastal Bay of Plenty, the west of Gisborne, inland Hawkes Bay, Wanganui and inland Manawatu as indicated on the chart. These storms could be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 25mm per hour.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a slightly broader area as indicated on the chart.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

MetService T-storm Outlook map for Nov 22.png

[Awhituobs]

active cell to my SW

active.png

[tornado]

Yes high risk yay

[Nev]

21.5mm here for the last 24 hrs.
Here's a few MS totals (mm) for the 24 hrs to 9am today:

82 … New Plymouth Aero
49 … Hāwera
38 … Whakatane
35 … Taumarunui
31 … Tauranga Aero
29 … Hamilton Aero
29 … Whanganui Aero
28 … Whitianga Aero
24 … Rotorua Aero
24 … Taupo Aero
15 ... Auckland Aero
14 ... Whenuapai
10 … Whangaparaoa

Edit: Added a few more.

[Awhituobs]

not exactly flooding type rain totals then

[Cyclone Tracy]

There is a clear out zone coming in behind these current Auckland showers for heating. Also some gravity wave clouds aloft with pluming moisture in the mid levels.

[jamie]

Yea I’m on watch for a chase this arvo


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[Cyclone Tracy]

My DP just hit 20c, my first for the warm season.

[David]

Some heavy showers popping up

[David]

Really convective rain, big raindrops

[Brassnz]

Hammering down, here. The heaviest rain we’ve had for a while.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Drizzling here

[Cyclone Tracy]

Thunder to my south I think

[NZstorm]

Can hear thunder to the SSW here in Grey Lynn.

[Razor]

Drizzling here

It was promising here in ChCh earlier with a brief heavyish shower, but dry since.

[spwill]

Seen a few Cgs going into the Manakau harbor area.
Thunder here

[jamie]

Brian is quiet. He must be chasing?


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[spwill]

Shower line over us now but just the one storm a little earlier sw of here

[spwill]

A couple of nice Cgs observed but storm clouds moved off to SW.
Some cloud photos from Mt Roskil

[David]

Impressive cell in the gulf on latest radar. Looks like the action will go east of me this time

[Tornado Tim]

Some good rumbling going on to my west atm.

[tornado]

have heard thunder and seen lightning as well as some heavy showers today!!! yay some good claps too. yay i thought it would of been a high risk bust but nope. still hearing rumbles now. awesome weather.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Drizzling here

It was promising here in ChCh earlier with a brief heavyish shower, but dry since.

After posting that about the drizzle, we have had a reasonable downpour here.

[Nev]

Quite a bit of surface flooding in New Plymouth this morn - 51mm in 3 hours at the airport…

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/123498 ... rth-island