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Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Thu 26/11/2020 10:05
by Richard
The moderate risk level for Friday.
Long overdue to finally get a storm
Thunderstorm outlook from the Met Service
Issued at 8:50am Thursday 26 Nov 2020
Valid from Noon Friday 27 Nov 2020 to Midnight Friday 27 Nov 2020
An unstable showery southerly flow affects much of the South Island.
During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Clutha, the east of Otago and the far south of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may by accompanied by bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h and hail.
During the afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the remainder of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 20mm per hour and hail.
There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a slightly broader area as indicated on the chart.
easternSI.png
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Thu 26/11/2020 10:58
by mikestormchaser
Interesting one Richard. Doesnt look like a " stick out like dogs balls" set up but a risk is there.
Would be nice to see that curved polar jet more over Canterbury as a whole
North Canterbury/ inland i would say will have more the risk. So maybe oxford north?
Any storms i think will become messy quickly
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Thu 26/11/2020 16:49
by Chris W
Would have to look at today's modeling but wasn't sure about Amuri, also thought there was a low chance of severe given the upper temperatures and some helicity/strong shear at the coast....but if something thundery fires up I'll be happy. It's been a long while for me.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 06:25
by mikestormchaser
Latest check is just a low risk. Change is quite early today. 10amish
There might be the chance of a heavy shower later but it could be one of those messy rain band set ups u expect to go inland.. chch will get a few mm though, always welcome
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 07:24
by Razor
Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 07:54
by mikestormchaser
Razor wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 07:24
Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
There is definitely a risk but i consider it low. The clagg will clear up and winds expected to go light NW before the change. But as i said quite early about 10am. Reasonably strong change to so maybe look out for a gust front
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 07:58
by Richard
Razor wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 07:24
Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
Clear sky NW wind here and unstable looking cloud to the south.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 08:16
by Razor
Yes, clagged all burned off. Better!
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 08:47
by Chris W
Sunny with a little cumulus developing over Amberley.
Come on guys, fog is not clagg!
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:08
by Orion
Approaching cloud at 8.45am, photographed by my Westerfield Spy
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:11
by Orion
^ Southerly blew through Ashburton just before 9am.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:21
by Chris W
Good gust front then! DP 12C here
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:31
by JP.
20c in Christchurch city with 15c DP.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:33
by Razor
Chris W wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 08:47
Sunny with a little cumulus developing over Amberley.
Come on guys, fog is not clagg!
It wasn't fog in Halswell.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 09:59
by mikestormchaser
You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 10:17
by Chris W
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 09:59
You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
That's how I check where it is on radar, a strong-enough change sticks out clearly.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 10:52
by TonyT
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 09:59
You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
Its when the frogs and small rodents get swept up that you know its gonna be a good one...
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 11:13
by Chris W
Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 11:22
by Razor
Chris W wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 11:13
Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Its already dropped to 14 here from 26
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 11:25
by Chris W
Southerly just came through here a minute ago.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 11:59
by Chris W
Going grey quickly
20201127_115844.jpg
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 12:53
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Bit of a non-event down here, southerly rolled in around 8:30am and clouded over with grey skies. Finally came onto rain from noon.
Calm here now.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 13:02
by Richard
Strong NW is still holding back the wind change till now.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 14:18
by Chris W
Seems to be a heavier wave of showers coming off the Alps, but so far not much has made it here. Looks like South Canty is getting wet though. Not sure the coldest upper air is that far north yet.
Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov
Posted: Fri 27/11/2020 14:49
by Richard
The coldest upper looks to be passing over us this evening.
