Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Archive of NZ Weather and Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8577
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1800 times
Been thanked: 868 times

Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Richard »

The moderate risk level for Friday.
Long overdue to finally get a storm =D>


Thunderstorm outlook from the Met Service
Issued at 8:50am Thursday 26 Nov 2020

Valid from Noon Friday 27 Nov 2020 to Midnight Friday 27 Nov 2020

An unstable showery southerly flow affects much of the South Island.

During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Clutha, the east of Otago and the far south of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may by accompanied by bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h and hail.

During the afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the remainder of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 20mm per hour and hail.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a slightly broader area as indicated on the chart.
easternSI.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2749
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 401 times
Been thanked: 651 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Interesting one Richard. Doesnt look like a " stick out like dogs balls" set up but a risk is there.
Would be nice to see that curved polar jet more over Canterbury as a whole

North Canterbury/ inland i would say will have more the risk. So maybe oxford north?
Any storms i think will become messy quickly
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Would have to look at today's modeling but wasn't sure about Amuri, also thought there was a low chance of severe given the upper temperatures and some helicity/strong shear at the coast....but if something thundery fires up I'll be happy. It's been a long while for me.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2749
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 401 times
Been thanked: 651 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Latest check is just a low risk. Change is quite early today. 10amish

There might be the chance of a heavy shower later but it could be one of those messy rain band set ups u expect to go inland.. chch will get a few mm though, always welcome
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5327
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 821 times
Been thanked: 1065 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
Christchurch Rocks
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2749
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 401 times
Been thanked: 651 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Razor wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 07:24 Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
There is definitely a risk but i consider it low. The clagg will clear up and winds expected to go light NW before the change. But as i said quite early about 10am. Reasonably strong change to so maybe look out for a gust front
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8577
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1800 times
Been thanked: 868 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Richard »

Razor wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 07:24 Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
Clear sky NW wind here and unstable looking cloud to the south.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5327
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 821 times
Been thanked: 1065 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

Yes, clagged all burned off. Better!
Christchurch Rocks
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Sunny with a little cumulus developing over Amberley.

Come on guys, fog is not clagg! 😄
Orion
Posts: 4156
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1544 times
Been thanked: 406 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Orion »

Approaching cloud at 8.45am, photographed by my Westerfield Spy
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Orion
Posts: 4156
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1544 times
Been thanked: 406 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Orion »

^ Southerly blew through Ashburton just before 9am.
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Good gust front then! DP 12C here
JP.
Posts: 372
Joined: Mon 12/06/2006 15:16
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 109 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by JP. »

20c in Christchurch city with 15c DP.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5327
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 821 times
Been thanked: 1065 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 08:47 Sunny with a little cumulus developing over Amberley.

Come on guys, fog is not clagg! 😄
It wasn't fog in Halswell.
Christchurch Rocks
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2749
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 401 times
Been thanked: 651 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

mikestormchaser wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 09:59 You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
That's how I check where it is on radar, a strong-enough change sticks out clearly.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2941
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 361 times
Been thanked: 1264 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by TonyT »

mikestormchaser wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 09:59 You can the bugs being sweeped up by the change from ashburton north on the radar
Its when the frogs and small rodents get swept up that you know its gonna be a good one... :lol:
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5327
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 821 times
Been thanked: 1065 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Fri 27/11/2020 11:13 Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Its already dropped to 14 here from 26
Christchurch Rocks
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Southerly just came through here a minute ago.
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Going grey quickly
20201127_115844.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18814
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1891 times
Been thanked: 1484 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Bit of a non-event down here, southerly rolled in around 8:30am and clouded over with grey skies. Finally came onto rain from noon.
Calm here now.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8577
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1800 times
Been thanked: 868 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Richard »

Strong NW is still holding back the wind change till now.
Chris W
Posts: 1445
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 367 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Chris W »

Seems to be a heavier wave of showers coming off the Alps, but so far not much has made it here. Looks like South Canty is getting wet though. Not sure the coldest upper air is that far north yet.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8577
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1800 times
Been thanked: 868 times

Re: Eastern SI storms 27th Nov

Unread post by Richard »

The coldest upper looks to be passing over us this evening.
Locked