The moderate risk level for Friday.
Long overdue to finally get a storm
Thunderstorm outlook from the Met Service
Issued at 8:50am Thursday 26 Nov 2020
Valid from Noon Friday 27 Nov 2020 to Midnight Friday 27 Nov 2020
An unstable showery southerly flow affects much of the South Island.
During the afternoon there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Clutha, the east of Otago and the far south of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may by accompanied by bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h and hail.
During the afternoon and evening there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the remainder of Canterbury as indicated on the chart. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain, 10 to 20mm per hour and hail.
There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a slightly broader area as indicated on the chart.
easternSI.png
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Interesting one Richard. Doesnt look like a " stick out like dogs balls" set up but a risk is there.
Would be nice to see that curved polar jet more over Canterbury as a whole
North Canterbury/ inland i would say will have more the risk. So maybe oxford north?
Any storms i think will become messy quickly
Would have to look at today's modeling but wasn't sure about Amuri, also thought there was a low chance of severe given the upper temperatures and some helicity/strong shear at the coast....but if something thundery fires up I'll be happy. It's been a long while for me.
Latest check is just a low risk. Change is quite early today. 10amish
There might be the chance of a heavy shower later but it could be one of those messy rain band set ups u expect to go inland.. chch will get a few mm though, always welcome
Razor wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 07:24
Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
There is definitely a risk but i consider it low. The clagg will clear up and winds expected to go light NW before the change. But as i said quite early about 10am. Reasonably strong change to so maybe look out for a gust front
Razor wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 07:24
Timing is crucial. Looks to be little to no chance of thunder to me given whats out the window so far, easterly clagg
Clear sky NW wind here and unstable looking cloud to the south.
Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Chris W wrote: ↑Fri 27/11/2020 11:13
Hot right now, 25C and DP still 12C with a very light NE says weather underground, which has us pegged for a drop to 11C by teatime but DP still good through the arvo. Looks like action is starting up over South Canterbury with the S vs W.
Seems to be a heavier wave of showers coming off the Alps, but so far not much has made it here. Looks like South Canty is getting wet though. Not sure the coldest upper air is that far north yet.
