UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The first day of Winter was dry here in Tiverton with a sunny but cool morning - after an early ground frost - but it clouded over in the afternoon whilst staying dry and the mercury reached 8°C, which is about average for early December. The colder theme will continue for the foreseeable future and another cold front will introduce a further shot of colder air from later tomorrow (Weds 2ns Dec) with the following showers turning increasingly wintry in the north of the UK.

A series of low pressure systems will move south over the UK from Thursday onwards bringing not just rain, but sleet and snow, and not exclusively to the high ground of the north. Whilst most of the wintry weather will be in the north, there is a reasonable chance of some sleet or snow even in more southern counties thru Friday and Saturday and perhaps even down here in the far SW - especially on the higher ground of Dartmoor, Exmoor or Bodmin Moor. Looking further ahead, there is some suggestion of a build of pressure to our NW in the models and this will maintain the cold flow over the UK and much of NW Europe. Some of the model output is looking rather interesting.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A complex area of low pressure moved south and developed over the UK between Wednesday and Friday last week (it got as low as 968mb) and has since then slowly filled as it has drifted further south into northern France by this morning (Sun 6th Dec). This produced many areas of rain and showers with the precipitation turning to snow at times and not just on the high ground - parts of SE England and East Anglia had a brief covering on Friday morning. It has been cold as well, with frost forming where skies have cleared at night - indeed, the lowest temperature of the winter so far was recorded on Friday morning when Altnaharra, in the far north of Scotland, reported a low of -9.6°C.

I have been travelling between Tiverton and Milton Keynes in the last few days and encountered a period of heavy sleet on the M5 motorway near Wellington (Somerset) on Friday evening - I was not expecting any wintry precipitation down here in the SW and especially at home - the sleet (albeit lighter) was still falling when I arrived home around 11pm with a temperature of just 3°C.

This morning it it gloriously sunny here in Tiverton and the slight overnight frost is still evident on the grass in the shade at 11am. However, it looks like more rain is sliding south across the Midlands and it has our name on it for this afternoon. The week ahead also looks rather chilly with some rain at times, but it looks to be predominantly dry with some sunshine and a nip of frost at night.

The CET for December was 4.5°C (-0.8°C) up to the 5th and the EWR was 30mm up to the 4th, which is 31% of the monthly average of 96mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As an area of snow moved westwards across Scotland on the morning of Friday 4th December, thundersnow was reported from quite a few places in the central belt of Scotland from Dundee + Edinburgh in the east to the Glasgow area in the west. This is not a common occurrence for the UK. The BBC has a story and a good video on the event.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... e-55184493

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-43075477

Radar and Lightning map attached (courtesy of The Met Office & Blitzortung). There were also a few thunder and hail showers in the SW.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has gradually become milder in the last few days with the usual rain + showers. Thankfully it has not been very windy - indeed, this autumn and winter has seen a distinct lack of strong winds.

Looking ahead, the picture is one of a very unsettled 5-7 days (at least) to come and remaining on the mild side as well. Nothing particularly stormy in the models, but it looks like we will see more windy conditions than we have been used to recently. With regards to Christmas Day, the range of solutions is quite large, but it currently looks like high pressure will be closer to the UK by then with drier and cooler weather expected - a nice frost on the morning of the 25th will suffice!

The CET was 4.5°C (-0.5°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 51mm up to the 10th which is 53% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The mild weather has persisted over the last few days with some rain or showers at times, but nothing of great significance - you could say it has been the continuation of the generally bland weather we have been experiencing since the Autumn.

Things will liven up a bit from now on with a lot of rain predicted for my area, the SW of the UK, and Wales, with 50-100mm expected over the hills on Friday/Saturday alone. The ground is generally saturated or close to it in most places, so I am expecting some flooding to occur. Looking further ahead, the mild and unsettled weather looks set to continue, but it will turn colder close to Christmas with the potential for a few wintry showers on the big day.

The recent run of milder days has shifted the temperature average into positive territory. The CET for December was 5.4°C (+0.5°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 74mm up to the 15th which is 77% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have had a rather wet spell down here in the SW of the UK with some sites seeing over 100mm of rain in the last three days. Admittedly, the worst affected areas have been those exposed to the southerly winds and especially on the south side of high ground areas such as Bodmin Moor, Exmoor, Dartmoor and the South Wales mountains. One site operated by the Environment Agency at Whitebarrow (on Dartmoor, Devon) had 138mm of rain on the 18th alone. There has been some flooding and the Eden Project in Cornwall (still in Tier 1 for COVID-19) has been forced to close because of the threat of landslides. This project, an environmental visitor attraction, was built in a massive disused claypit (the clay was used by the pottery industry years ago) which has rather steep sides.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-55377974

Still looking like it will turn colder later this coming week, but any whiteness for Christmas Day is likely to be frost rather than snow.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The rain has continued to fall, albeit mostly light in intensity - but the dullness is one of the worst aspects of midwinter in the UK - we are now at the time of the shortest days and lowest light levels. The rain has been drizzly today here in Tiverton with low cloud hugging the hills, but at least it was mild at 11°C. More rain tomorrow as yet another depression moves across the UK - this time over more southern parts - and this will allow a more northerly flow to develop as it moves off into Europe. The wind on the backside of this low could be quite strong here in the SW, although the Met Office weather warnings are for another 50mm+ of rain rather than the wind.

Christmas Eve + Christmas day should be dry over most of the UK and rather nippy as the NW wind will continue to be felt. Frosty nights will also be a feature, especially on the big day - we should have a white start - of sorts. After that there looks to be another re-load of the north westerly or northerly airmass over the weekend and this will persist and stagnate next week with various areas of low pressure dumbelling around one another near or over the UK which will bring rain and/or snow and a cold period of weather. Just what we need with covid + Brexit peaking. :crazy:

The CET for December was 6.1°C (+1.2°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 102mm up to the 20th which is 107% of the monthly average. Another wet month, but if the forecast is correct, we might just see a colder than average month.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been a wet period of weather over much of the UK, although it did dry out for Christmas Day - we had a nip of frost on Friday morning here in Tiverton and some nice sunshine for the post lunch walk - it was rather chilly at 5°C, though.

The worst of the rain fell across a swathe from South Wales across the southern Midlands to East Anglia on Christmas Eve, with daily totals of 50-60mm in many parts of this area. Dan Holley (a forecaster with Weatherquest) has provided a good map of the rainfall figures from Met Office + Environment Agency gauges:

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 9650425856

The outcome has been the issuing of three severe flood warnings (which means a potential danger to life) as the water hit the rivers over Christmas Eve/Day. They apply to parts of the River Nene and the River Ouse - the latter has seen a request to evacuate 1300 properties in the town of Bedford today - not a good Christmas for them.

And now we have Storm Bella about to arrive for Sat/Sun. More about this later.

EDIT: I forgot to add that it was officially a White Christmas in parts of the UK as a few snow flurries were reported in eastern England + Scotland and a few favoured spots even had a dusting of snow on the ground. Here in Tiverton we had to make do with a little white hoar frost.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Storm Bella is affecting the UK tonight and will deliver high winds, plenty of rain and a return to colder conditions from tomorrow onwards and through most of the coming week. The low (currently at 957mb at 00:00GMT 27/12/2020 and near the Faroe Islands) is unusual in that it has developed north of Iceland and is now moving SE towards northern Scotland on its way to the southern North Sea by Sunday evening. This is at 90 degrees to the normal movement (to the NE) of low pressures near the UK and will introduce a very broad NW flow from the North Atlantic which will get progressively colder as it develops and moves SE.

We have already seen gusts to 80-90mph in more exposed parts of the west of Wales and along the south coast of England and this will continue overnight and into Sunday morning. The accompanying heavy driving rain will not help the flooded areas. After the fronts pass through it will get colder and the showers will turn wintry, even over England + Wales - could be some lying snow in places by Monday.

Synoptic map at 00:00Z for 27th Dec 2020 courtesy of Meteocentre. The low is moving SSE currently.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by TonyT »

Simon Culling wrote: Sun 27/12/2020 13:35 Storm Bella is affecting the UK tonight and will deliver high winds, plenty of rain and a return to colder conditions from tomorrow onwards and through most of the coming week. The low (currently at 957mb at 00:00GMT 27/12/2020 and near the Faroe Islands) is unusual in that it has developed north of Iceland and is now moving SE towards northern Scotland on its way to the southern North Sea by Sunday evening. This is at 90 degrees to the normal movement (to the NE) of low pressures near the UK and will introduce a very broad NW flow from the North Atlantic which will get progressively colder as it develops and moves SE.

We have already seen gusts to 80-90mph in more exposed parts of the west of Wales and along the south coast of England and this will continue overnight and into Sunday morning. The accompanying heavy driving rain will not help the flooded areas. After the fronts pass through it will get colder and the showers will turn wintry, even over England + Wales - could be some lying snow in places by Monday.

Synoptic map at 00:00Z for 27th Dec 2020 courtesy of Meteocentre. The low is moving SSE currently.
SSW happening now, combined with Nina intensifying. You could be in for a bumpy ride over the next 6 weeks.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Hello Tony. Thanks for raising the SSW point. There seems to be a general consensus in the meteorological community that a SSW event is possible in early January for the the northern Hemisphere. If this were to occur, somewhere will get very cold weather, but it will depend on how the Polar Vortex breaks up and where the lobes of cold air go - i.e. the location of the blocking highs are critical. If this were to occur in the UK later in the winter, the combination of very cold weather, Covid + Brexit will definitely make for a bumpy ride. :(

Storm Bella brought some strong winds on her southern flank overnight into Sunday (27th Dec), but the worst of the winds were over the SW Approaches and SW coastal counties. Thankfully, disruption from the wind was not great, but the additional heavy rain has brought more flooding misery to some, especially over more southern + central parts of England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55454045

The gust of 106mph was at a very exposed site (Needles, Old Battery) on the SW tip of the Isle of Wight. It is not very representative and other coastal sites in the area saw gusts of 80-85mph which is more like the figure for this storm.

The low pressure system this morning (Mon 28th Dec) was located over North Wales at 967mb and is now slowly filling and we have areas of showery sleet + snow over the UK. It will slowly move east into Europe as other lows approach from the SW and bump into the now resident colder air. It will be a difficult forecasting week for the industry as snow could fall just about anywhere, although on low ground where most of us live, it will probably be slushy and quick to melt.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Since the departure of 'Storm Bella' the UK has been in a NW flow and remained rather cold with rain, sleet + snow in most places. The snow has been mainly in the north and not widespread, but some of the higher towns + villages in Staffordshire have seen around 15cm of snow. This has also been the case in parts of Northern Ireland where numerous wintry showers have developed over the (relatively) warm seas to their north. Last night (Tues/Weds 29th/30th Dec) was the coldest of the winter so far with the temperature falling to -10.2°C at Dalwhinnie in the Scottish Highlands.

Here in Tiverton we have seen a few hail and sleet showers, but no snow on the ground. Indeed, we have struggled to record an air frost, with just three so far in December. This part of the UK - a peninsula with the sea not far away in most directions - is the mildest part of the UK and snow is becoming increasingly rare. I cannot say the same for rain, though. :lol:

Still plenty of chatter about an SSW event, but it is still all forecasts - no reversal of the flow seen yet at the surface. This twitter thread has the latest:

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1 ... 0250876928
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained cold over the New Year with sharp overnight frosts and sleet, hail + snow showers in many areas. There has not been any organised areas of snow, but some places have seen 10cm+ of snow on the ground. Here in Tiverton, we have only managed a few sleet showers and even the high ground of nearby Exmoor and Dartmoor have only seen a sprinkling of snow. We have had some sharp frosts at night with a number of local stations reporting lows of -6°C.

The cold weather looks set to continue over the next few days and probably beyond next weekend. The high pressure to the west of the UK will transfer NE to our north or north west and this will introduce an easterly or north easterly flow. Initially, the source of this air will effectively be the eastern Mediterranean as it circulates around a low near Corsica, but the air will become more continental later next week as the source becomes more from central Europe. Not a 'Beast from the East', but it will be cold with plenty of wintry to showers to more eastern areas - the North Sea SST's are about 2°C above average at the moment, so a good trigger for convection as cold air passes west over it.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Still cold here in the UK, although nothing of great note meteorologically speaking, especially here in the SW - we have had nothing more than a few sleet/snow showers and a little frost here in Tiverton. Further north, the cold had been more intense and they have had some disruption from snow, but this mostly on the higher ground where only a handful of people actually live.

The cold conditions look set to remain through this week, but apart from some showers in the east, it should be mostly dry and becoming frosty later in the week. After that, we may see an incursion of milder weather off the Atlantic.

Final figures for December have not yet been released, but the Met Office calculators have been busy producing preliminary figures for 2020 which appears to be the third warmest year in the current temperature series back to 1884 and the sixth wettest in the current rainfall series back to 1862. More facts in this press release:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... s-round-up
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The UK has remained in a rather stagnant N flow with small disturbances giving wintry showers to some areas - the hills of NE England seem to have caught the worst of the snow with 20-25cm in some places, although the main cities have not been badly affected. The coldest air has been in the north as daily outgoing radiation exceeds the incoming and this can lead to some cold days/nights even when it is sunny as the cold air gets trapped at the surface - we have not had much in the way of wind in the last week or so and have hence been relying on gas + coal for much of our energy needs. These are the lowest temperatures for recent nights:

Weds 6th Jan -12.3°C at Loch Glascarnoch (Highlands)
Thurs 7th Jan -9.5°C at Redsedale Camp (Northumberland)
Fri 8th Jan -8.2°C at Loch Glascarnoch
Sat 9th Jan -11.9°C at Eskdalemuir Observatory (Southern Uplands)

Here in Tiverton we have managed five air frosts so far this year, but nothing lower than -4°C, so a different world to the north of the UK. It is taking me a while to get used to the mild winters here in the SW and the lack of any 'weather' other than rain + drizzle. :-(

Milder weather is on the way from Sunday and next week looks like a return to a more westerly or south westerly flow with plenty of rain about. Europe looks like it will remain cold, so the potential is there for a return to colder weather in the UK after mid-month.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We are currently transitioning to much milder weather here in the south, although this will struggle to make much of an inroad to more northern counties. This morning (11am, Tues 12th Jan) it is drizzly, breezy and 10°C here in Tiverton, but it is sunny and still around zero in much of Scotland and this split in the weather will continue through much of this week. The model output is rather variable at the moment as it struggles to cope with the effects of the current SSW. Cold weather looks like developing more widely over NW Europe in the coming week, but there is not yet a route in the forecast for this cold air to filter any further west to us in the UK. Mild and unseetled in the south this week, with something a little cooler and drier by the weekend.

The final CET for December was 5.0°C (+0.3°C) and the final EWR was 159mm which is 167% of the monthly average. The colder weather at the end of the month brought the temperature average down in what was a very wet month.

The CET for January was 1.6°C (-2.0°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 13mm up to the 10th Jan, which is just 13% of the monthly average of 91mm. Both of these measures will rise this week.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The mild and drizzly weather has continued here in Tiverton with virtually constant light rain + drizzle from mid Monday to mid Thursday this week with the temperature stuck between 9-11°C. The rain finally cleared yesterday afternoon and we had a nip of frost this morning (Fri 15th Jan) and the morning has seen plenty of hazy sunshine and a nice halo around the sun.

This is in stark contrast to the much colder and snowier weather further north and east. Parts of Scotland and NE + E England had quite a lot of snow on Weds/Thurs with up to 25-30cm recorded in places. It did not just affect the high ground either - many of the main northern cities such as Leeds, Sheffield + Newcastle were affected. The skies cleared overnight into Friday and the Met Office site at Ravensworth (North Yorks) recorded a low of -11.8°C over the snowfields - I think this is the lowest temperature of the winter so far in England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55660232

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-55630882

The dull, wet, mild + boring weather looks set to continue here in the SW in the next few days.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The mild weather has now pushed further north and we are entering a very unsettled spell of weather this coming week. Some snow did fall in London and East Anglia/SE England on Saturday morning (up to 6cm temporarily in Norfolk), but soon melted as milder weather followed from the SW. Nothing wintry here in Tiverton - we had heavy rain overnight into Saturday and it was 10°C by the morning. Winter is very different down here in the South West.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-55687934

As mentioned above, the weather is set to turn very unsettled this week with plenty of rain and wind. The Met Office have recently named a storm for Weds/Thurs as 'Cristoph' and this will bring a lot of rain to northern England, and this combined with snowmelt will lead to some serious flooding in this area. It will be wet over most of England + Wales with higher ground in the west and north expecting 100-200mm this week - falling on saturated ground. Not good news at this difficult time.

The CET for January was 2.6°C (-0.9°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 53mm up to the 16th which is 58% of the monthly average. The latter figure is likely to be above the monthly average by the end of this coming week.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The effects of 'Storm Cristoph' were spread over three days as it moved NNE over the UK during Tues/Weds/Thurs of this week. It brought extensive rainfall, strong winds and quite a bit of snow (for northern parts) as it moved away into the North Sea. Looking at the synoptic maps, it reached a low of around 950mb on Thursday as it moved off the coast of eastern Scotland. It was a complicated system with two centres (the second was Cristoph) and gave particularly heavy rain to NW England and northern parts of Wales - and this resulted in plenty of flooding. The upland site at Capel Curig in North Wales had 181mm in the 72 hours to 12Z on Thursday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55743246

Southern England was spared the worst of this storm, but it has still been wet at times in the last few days. Here in Tiverton we had around 30mm from the storm, but no snow. It has turned colder since 'Cristoph' passed and we had a frost this morning (Fri 22nd Jan) with wispy fog coming and going. Looking forward, it will remain on the cool side with further showers which will turn increasingly wintry, even here in the south.

The CET for January was 3.4°C (-0.2°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 91mm up to the 20th which is bang on 100% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A trough pushing into southern parts of the UK has (and continues) to give some snow to southern England - a rare visitor these days. Here in Tiverton we had a dusting of snow overnight which I measured at 1cm at 9am this morning (Sun 24th Jan). There was still a 75% cover at this time and it had re-frozen as the cloud cleared before dawn. Further sleet and snow showers are expected here today, but I think the slow thaw will continue. The snow band will likely pivot over central southern England, so some parts there may see 10cm or so on the ground. At 10am there was 6cm reported on the ground at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire. Just starting to settle in my old stamping ground of Milton Keynes - could be 5cm+ there by tea time.

We had a sharp frost here in the SW before the snow arrived with a minimum air temperature of -5.9°C at Exeter Airport.

EDIT: The snow fell across much of southern and central England today with up to 15cm in parts of the East Midlands. The snow has all melted here in Tiverton and we had sleet showers this afternoon and a cold wind. BBC piece gives a flavour.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55786984
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Orion »

^ great video and photos at that BBC link - thanks, Simon.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cold weather has hung on in the north for much of the past week with further hard frosts + more snow, but here in the south it has turned progressively milder and yesterday (Thurs 28th Jan) the temperature hit 14°C in parts of the Midlands + southern England. The mild air has not stopped the rain falling so the old expression about it "being grim up north" applies equally to the south at the moment - Mr Sun is not a frequent visitor at the moment.

England + Wales will be a bit of a battleground this weekend as the colder air pushes south again and rain moves up from the south west. As the rain moves into central parts of England + Wales it will turn progressively to snow, but these situations are always very difficult to forecast. One thing is for certain - it will only be rain here in the SW!

The cold rampers are getting rather excited as the models are firming up on a much colder spell of weather starting in the latter part of next week with snow possible even here in the south. We could well do without this bearing in mind the health emergency, but what will be will be - at least it might be something to enjoy. We will know by the end of the weekend if the models have been teasing or not! Interestingly, the Met Office is not yet reflecting this in their 7 day forecasts.

The CET for January was 3.3°C (-0.5°C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 120mm up to the 27th which is 132% of the monthly average. Unusually, a cold and wet winter month.
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

I was wrong - we had a period of snow on Saturday morning in Tiverton, although it didn't settle. It kept switching between rain, sleet and snow all morning, so we must have been right on the turning point in terms of temperature, humidity and precipitation rate.

The battle between the cold and mild air has continued over the UK with further heavy snow in the northern half today, Tuesday 2nd February. Here in the south it has turned milder again after a chilly weekend, and the temperature reached 14*C in London this afternoon. I am in Milton Keynes at the moment and it has been showery today, but we have managed some sunshine and a max of 12*C. This BBC link gives an idea of the northern snowfall:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55899744

The Met Office has now joined in forecasting a change to generally much colder weather by the weekend with snow showers for many parts of the UK and maximums not far from zero. There is already a heavy snow warning for Eastern Scotland over the weekend with 20-40cm expected by Sunday in the Highlands. Once an easterly gets established, forecasting day to day snowfall amounts can be very difficult, so the current zero may well change for us in the SW of England.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The mild weather has continued here in the south, but the cold has persisted over Scotland with plenty of snow away from the coasts and above about 150m amsl. Lots of showers in the last couple of days here in Tiverton, but up to 10°C today and felt quite pleasant in the sunshine between the showers. However, the cold weather is due to spread south over the weekend and we will all be in a cold and snowy easterly flow by Sunday and there could be quite a lot of snow in more eastern parts. Not expecting much snow here in Tiverton, though.

With all the cold weather this winter and accompanying snow, the Scottish ski resorts have ideal conditions - but due to the COVID-19 restrictions, no customers. Life can be very ironic at times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-55903349

The final CET for January was 3.1°C (-0.7°C) and this is one of only six of the last 25 months that were colder than average. The final EWR was 143mm which is 157% of the monthly average.
spwill
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Re: UK Weather - Winter 2020/21

Unread post by spwill »

A difference between UK and NZ Winter is the level of cold weather UK will experience next week (bitter) and no where in Uk will escape it if latest GFS proves correct.
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