Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

A 2nd rotating vortex in the South Pacific convergence zone is now of the GEFS ensemble radar. Invest 96P
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Awhituobs »

La Nina pattern about to be unleashed
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Gulf of Carpentaria does it again and bamboozles the BoM. The tropical low projected by the BoM to be a cat 2 later today, moves east and over land :smile:
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Blowy »

Will that then, c0-mingle with 95 and 96 and head here?
Crikey we need the rain, praps not 3 XTC's worth though....
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

It's think it's too early to tell about possible impacts on NZ due to the uncertainty on how strong the ridge above NZ will be but there will definitely be a fujiwhara effect in the short term and possible consolidation in the tropics.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Chris W »

IMO those systems are far too far apart to interact. Going by the BOM they would have the Samoa one passing well north/east of us but the Coral Sea one possibly heading our way. Meanwhile they send an east coast low to NSW/Tas.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Chris W wrote: Thu 28/01/2021 14:08 IMO those systems are far too far apart to interact. Going by the BOM they would have the Samoa one passing well north/east of us but the Coral Sea one possibly heading our way. Meanwhile they send an east coast low to NSW/Tas.
GFS 00Z is consolidating invest 94P & 96P.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Ana, bearing down on Fiji, was named by Fiji Met this morning…
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Ana was upgraded to Cat 2 overnight and is about to make landfall around the north coast of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Awhituobs »

looks like a second tropical low behind it on the sat image
and the northern coral sea is nice and active again too...that system remains might eventually end up in the north tasman...
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Lucas in the Coral Sea was named by the BoM this evening, after earlier crossing Cape York from the GoC …
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Awhituobs »

someone did wonder if it would survive and get reborn
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

TC Bina was named Fiji Met overnight and looks set to hit Fiji's main islands tonight, before ultimately being absorbed by TC Ana which was also upgraded to a severe Cat 3 TC overnight.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

Short-lived Ex-TC Bina has now weakened back to a Tropical Depression according to Fiji Met, but still on track to hit Fiji's already flood damaged main islands later today.

Not often you see a Cat 2, Cat 1, and Cat 3 all lined up like earlier this morning though…
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by TonyT »

A period of moderate geomagnetic storming happening now and into tomorrow from a high speed stream from a coronal hole, directed more at the Southern Hemisphere. Look for a possible tropical cyclone spin up in 7-10 days from now in the Coral Sea/SWP area.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Will be shorted lived but JTWC has named Tropical storm 20P SW of Tonga.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 10/02/2021 16:34 Will be shorted lived but JTWC has named Tropical storm 20P SW of Tonga.
It's now also well into MetService's 'area of responsibly' (AOR), so it would be a first if they did decide to officially name it... :-k
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Awhituobs »

they should name it spaghetti monster?
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by TonyT »

Weak to moderate geomagnetic storming happening currently from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. Could be a pre-cursor to a TC spin up in 7-10 days time in the South Pacific.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The Australian monsoonal low climatology peak hour is arriving soon and ensembles are projecting that to be the case. The Coral sea is currently a cat 5 production factory with large areas of the sea surface between 29c to 31c. ECMWF attached.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

All global models now have invest 99P developing into a cyclone in the Coral sea off Far North Queensland on Monday or Tuesday. The most reliable South Pacific model UKMet is producing a cat 4 by the end of next week. Access G is going cat 5 near the same location.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Chris W »

Looks a monster on the BOM and possibly to head our way going by the Access model, though the GFS doesn’t want a bar of it today.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Invest 99P is starting to get the look about it off the North Queensland coast. Strong outflow and a hot tower punching into the stratosphere over the Coral sea.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The BoM commences the game of pin the tail on the donkey.
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Re: Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

Unread post by Willoughby »

Meant to be taking the 8 o'clock ferry back out to Fitzroy Island this morning from Cairns... Think I'll be a bit out of luck.

Area of stronger southerlies starting to increase to the southeast here.
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