NZ Weather Forum

I see a second one is forming near Samoa... I was sent a picture of some high tide inundation yesterday...must have been associated

Yes, JTWC declared TD 03F (06P) near Samoa a TC earlier this morning, after issuing an Alert yesterday evening…

Nev wrote: ↑Mon 14/12/2020 07:26 Yes, JTWC declared TD 03F (06P) near Samoa a TC earlier this morning, after issuing an Alert yesterday evening…

Bingo!

I reckon this might be a active season

Missed these posts, or thought they were about Yasa. Anyhoo, Zazu thread also started. Never saw that coming.

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 14/12/2020 16:49 Missed these posts, or thought they were about Yasa. Anyhoo, Zazu thread also started. Never saw that coming.

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 09/12/2020 11:51 Yesterday's CME could suggest a South Pacific TC spool up in around 7-10 days time if waters are favourable.

I see the coral sea temperature is above normal now
and with the next MJO due in a few weeks time and the next BFH in jan, maybe by middle of jan there will be a coral sea TC

About to become more lively in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia with the current position of MJO and the Kelvin wave. The easterlies in the equatorial Pacific will intensify further in the coming week keeping the monsoon trough in the Indian Ocean. Based on all the global model ensembles, the South Pacific and Coral sea will likely see more widespread deep convective activity towards the end of January now.

Tropical cyclones Joshua and Kimi now born in Oz waters. Kimi may become a cat 2 before landfall near Cairns.

gosh, to think I called it, a TC for the coral sea

TC Kimi showing a more southerly track this morning, currently a cat 1 but has very favourable sea surface temp of 29c and low 10 knot wind shear to become stronger.

Radar in NZT.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 18/01/2021 08:45 TC Kimi showing a more southerly track this morning, currently a cat 1 but has very favourable sea surface temp of 29c and low 10 knot wind shear to become stronger.

Radar in NZT.

Each update from the BOM brings landfall further south. Lots of uncertainty with not only the track but the strength as well.

TC Kimi's convection overshooting the CDO into the stratosphere. ADT method showing Kimi is 53 knots (1 min sustained), 2 knots off cat 2.

Sat pic 2.20pm NZT.

Kimi is now officially a cat 2 and the eye is around 50 km further east than the BoM's track map.

BoM now also expect this midget TC to stall off the coast between Hinchinbook Island and Townsville on Tuesday…

Ex-TC Kimi was downgraded to Cat 1 overnight and declared extratropical around 7am NZDT this morning…

Nev wrote: ↑Tue 19/01/2021 08:32 Ex-TC Kimi was downgraded to Cat 1 overnight and declared extratropical around 7am NZDT this morning…

Some great social distancing from Kimi I see another cyclone brewing in Western Australian waters in the coming days.

EC showing a Monsoon gyre signal around the Solomon Islands in 6 days.

Here’s the next TL. Soon to be TC Lucas I believe.

ICON projecting a low shear environment and pulls the trigger a South Pacific goliath in less than 6 days. The German model was showing a strong tropical cyclogeneses signal days before other models became keen. Almost all models underestimated Yasa 6 days out from becoming a 898 hPa beast. Tropics are awakening.

The most reliable South Pacific cyclone global model UKMet, now jumping onboard with ICON and the BoM's Access G3, producing a severe TC near New Caledonia this Sunday on the latest 00z run. GFS & EC going for a fujiwhara effect, then 2 weaker vortices either end of the South Pacific convergence zone.

Latest UK 12Z run producing a deep warm core annular TC which exits the tropics on 1 February.

BOM has cyclones in the Indian Ocean/Kimberley Coast, Coral Sea and SW Pacific on Saturday

Hot towers exploding in the Gulf of Carpentaria with outflow starting to appear. A new cyclone is close .....probably the most difficult spot on earth for weather models to accurately project tropical cyclone intensity and track. Anything could happen over those 31c sea surface temps with low wind shear.

Invest 95P, now up and running with the GEFS ensemble.