NZ Weather Forum

Anyone care to speculate 14 days out? Anything from a TC to a big fat high?

xmas TC! lol

Oops, sorry, EX-TC for any media types reading!!!

Anticyclone North Island, unsettled westerly quarter flow South Island.

Latest gfs showing height falls over the south Tasman/South Island, maybe a thunderstorm day of two around Xmas.
North Island under influence of a ridge.

500mb heights December 25

It would be nice for a thunderstorm as a Christmas present.
Maybe Santa Claus or Father Christmas, could drag in unstable air over here behind his sleigh to deliver a nice thunderstorm for Christmas Day.
Would he have to come in from the South Pole and drag in colder upper atmosphere air for it to work?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 12/12/2020 18:34 It would be nice for a thunderstorm as a Christmas present.
Maybe Santa Claus or Father Christmas, could drag in unstable air over here behind his sleigh to deliver a nice thunderstorm for Christmas Day.
Would he have to come in from the South Pole and drag in colder upper atmosphere air for it to work?

Lol. I remember hearing thunder here Christmas day 2018 here in Auckland. Had a huge downpour that day

NZstorm wrote: ↑Sat 12/12/2020 09:38 Latest gfs showing height falls over the south Tasman/South Island, maybe a thunderstorm day of two around Xmas.
North Island under influence of a ridge.

500mb heights December 25

Hot Christmas Day and a stormy Boxing Day perhaps.

Still way to far out but GFS now has shifted ex-TC cyclone remnants to the South Island on xmas day. I expect wild model variability as there usually is with these things so far out, but the media hysteric types won't notice that

Also some convergence showers possible in the north island. Hmm. Getting a bit interesting hope we don't get too much damage.

10days away, still far out but a ridge hanging onto the NI, trough deep south, humid air across NZ. Fiordland/west Otago the place for a thunderstorm.

Looks like some rain may eventuate next week. Christmas. Day could be a wash out

Looks like the weather leading up to Christmas is going to be the "Neither or Neither" scenario?
Boring really

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 20/12/2020 00:00 Looks like the weather leading up to Christmas is going to be the "Neither or Neither" scenario?
Boring really

Yeah models seems to keep on flip floping.

Latest UKmet and EU are staying with the prognosis of an upper level trough over the South Island and ridge over the North Island.
Shower/thunder risk for lower half of the South Island, generally fine over North Island.

Thunderstorm risk for the South Island Xmas Day and Boxing Day as a spell of cooler weather moves onto NZ after Xmas Day.

Auckland Xmas Day, fresh southwest breeze, high cloudiness.

So we're looking at a balmy high of...14C for Chch on the day! Won't mind if a storm turns up though

Chris W wrote: ↑Thu 24/12/2020 06:37 So we're looking at a balmy high of...14C for Chch on the day! Won't mind if a storm turns up though

For Christchurch perhaps christmas night when convection develops on the mid Canterbury coast.

The models we were looking at 12 days ago look to have given reasonable guidance for Xmas day.

Yes that's about the time I've been looking at. Night time is tricky for us normally due to lack of onshore wind but it's possible.

well no xmas cyclone
but we did get 2.5mm here yesterday in a very humid northerly flow, which had some of its source as the remains of TC Yasa...so ....

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 12/12/2020 18:34 It would be nice for a thunderstorm as a Christmas present.
Maybe Santa Claus or Father Christmas, could drag in unstable air over here behind his sleigh to deliver a nice thunderstorm for Christmas Day.
Would he have to come in from the South Pole and drag in colder upper atmosphere air for it to work?

Looks likely he might do this. According to reports, because of the Covid-19 pandemic, he has shifted from his North Pole base, to the South Pole, this year to deliver his presents, globally, as he didn't want to drop any presents onto people that may have the virus ,especially after the strain of the Covid that sadly is affecting the UK this Christmas

Merry Christmas all!

Overcast start to the day here, 16C min with a SW wind. Likely to feel more like spring than summer today I think.

Merry Christmas. Yes gonna be a un summer like day around the country. Thunderstorms South Island.

It was sunny for a start but the cloud has moved in and is now looking rather threatening

Merry Christmas everyone, I hope you all have a wonderful day.