General January Weather

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NZstorm
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General January Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like another upper-level vortex will spin across the country early in the New Year. These are thunderstorm producers so worth keeping an eye on it.

EU 500mb Jan 2
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by tornado »

I really think it won't be dry as last 2 jans
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Otago looks wet to start the year, heavy rain modelled for Central Otago as well.
There is model variation for Auckland, possibly some heavy showers 2-5th
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Significant La Nina equatorial easterlies pumping into the south pacific convergence at a precip water total of 60mm and are projected to maintain intensity into the first week of January. It's now a waiting game for the next MJO pulse into the region. There is still uncertainty on the MJO's arrival (probably 2nd half of Jan) but if these equatorial easterlies are to maintain their rage when it arrives, it's going to be an extraordinary weather pattern switch for the Coral sea and South West Pacific including NZ.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 30/12/2020 14:52 Significant La Nina equatorial easterlies pumping into the south pacific convergence at a precip water total of 60mm and are projected to maintain intensity into the first week of January. It's now a waiting game for the next MJO pulse into the region. There is still uncertainty on the MJO's arrival (probably 2nd half of Jan) but if these equatorial easterlies are to maintain their rage when it arrives, it's going to be an extraordinary weather pattern switch for the Coral sea and South West Pacific including NZ.
Quite wildly varying MJO forecasts coming out of the different agency models at present (indicative of considerable uncertainty and probabiy an inability to latch on to the current state of the atmosphere due to the more unusual La Nina/low solar phase). The ECMWF for example has many model runs all around the MJO cycle, and hence the mean is in the null zone (they all cancel each other out).
EMON_phase_51m_full.gif
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

models are showing a return to warmer and more humid NE winds more and more into January
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest EU indicates thunderstorms over the North Island 2nd to 4th time frame. Showing surface dewpoint 17C with 500mb temperature -16C.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:Latest EU indicates thunderstorms over the North Island 2nd to 4th time frame. Showing surface dewpoint 17C with 500mb temperature -16C.
Last time I checked gfs wasn’t wanting a bar of it. Getting close now tho. Has gfs come into agreement?


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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Rogue »

jamie wrote: Thu 31/12/2020 09:34
NZstorm wrote:Latest EU indicates thunderstorms over the North Island 2nd to 4th time frame. Showing surface dewpoint 17C with 500mb temperature -16C.
Last time I checked gfs wasn’t wanting a bar of it. Getting close now tho. Has gfs come into agreement?


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GFS has changed significantly since I checked yesterday 👍
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by wembley »

Looking at Alexandra's forecast over the next couple of days, it looks like it won't quite be raining 100% of the time and it won't always be heavy.

Thus...
https://www.metservice.com/towns-cities ... /alexandra
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see Alexandra had a high today of 13C while Milford Sound got to 20C.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Happy New Year :smile:
I did with an Interesting day to start off 2021.
Uninteresting cloud turning onto a thunderstorm this afternoon with some rain following.
Today's maximum was 23.1C 12.5mm for today.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by tornado »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 01/01/2021 22:53 Happy New Year :smile:
I did with an Interesting day to start off 2021.
Uninteresting cloud turning onto a thunderstorm this afternoon with some rain following.
Today's maximum was 23.1C 12.5mm for today.
Lucky. Can't be jealous as it's our turn tommorow as well. Let's hope we get a better year. 2021 .
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Some good numbers with tomorrows setup. Waikato heading for a humid day with DP's forecast to 19*C!

I notice there is a good split in the upper level flow around the central North Island with tomorrows setup too.

The edges of the jets draw away more air and can favor convection to fire with a big more vigor.

Will be watching with interest :)
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

ECMWF and GFS agree on WNW convergence forming just east of Hamilton from 1 PM and progressing slowly eastwards throughout the afternoon then stalling.

Jamie, our favorite hotspot Kariprio is looking bang on in the zone ;)
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tornado Tim wrote: Sat 02/01/2021 00:09 ECMWF and GFS agree on WNW convergence forming just east of Hamilton from 1 PM and progressing slowly eastwards throughout the afternoon then stalling.
That's got my attention now! I hope it's not over here. Might see you this afternoon in the Waikato.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see a PWS in Naseby in North Otago has had 72mm in the last 18 hours.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by wembley »

Do you know when the next anticyclone is due over us?
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Andy »

61mm in Alex the last 3 days here.
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Re: General January Weather

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That is unheard of
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Queenstown currently on 8.7C with heavy rain.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

The high at Alexandra Airport about 13C again today. The average January max is 24C for Alexandra.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Andy »

Rain easing now in Alex 105mm in the last 2 days, 80mm in the last 24hrs.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by Flutterbye »

Andy wrote: Sat 02/01/2021 20:33 Rain easing now in Alex 105mm in the last 2 days, 80mm in the last 24hrs.
According to MS, Alex has had 96mm since midnight. Heavy rain here in Cromwell overnight and more today though it did start to get patchy this afternoon.
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Re: General January Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Rain overnight but easing up this morning but remaining rather overcast.
2 rounds of thunderstorms developed from the possible TC corner today and moved to the south.
This delivered, all up including the overnight rain to 29.8mm for today with a substantial amount occurring from the squall which moved through around 8pm. Today's maximum was 21.5C.
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