New Year Thunderstorms
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New Year Thunderstorms
MS is posing a moderate risk for thunderstorms in the high country of Canterbury for tomorrow, which according to their models, looks good for the TC area. Hope it is better than the Christmas scenario which brought, nothing here but it delivered that hailstorm to the Motueka area.
JohnGaul
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Was a small mid-afternoon thunderstorm near Amberley on the 27th also.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 31/12/2020 19:10 MS is posing a moderate risk for thunderstorms in the high country of Canterbury for tomorrow, which according to their models, looks good for the TC area. Hope it is better than the Christmas scenario which brought, nothing here but it delivered that hailstorm to the Motueka area.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Looks like a thundery weekend for the upper north island including Auckland. Hoping for some good storms
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
The colder upper air over the South Island and a slow moving front over the North Island with moist subtropical air.
500mb chart for 2nd January.
500mb chart for 2nd January.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Well, 2021 is here
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Might head inland tomorrow Saturday , best thunderstorm chance will be inland.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Tomorrow looks like action for all, or most!
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Severe thunderstorm watch issued by Metservice for southern Canterbury plains, high country and north Otago. Just missing me to the south. Looks like tomorrow will be a better day for me to chase from my lounge room window
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Nothing much happening here at the moment but south Otago does look quite wet according to their new radar.
JohnGaul
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Actually first 3 days of the year has thunderstorm/hail set ups for most of the country including Canterbury.
I am currently in Hanmer Springs so a good zone today for where the convergences are, will be much better late this afternoon into the evening I think.
The zone shifts slightly more SE tomorrow but I'm thinking given where the convergence is we may see isolated storms possibly severe around inland from Rakaia gorge north into North Canterbury and Marlborough.
45kt upper jet through here too, and things tend to form ahead of the main occluded line to the south.
This line might also have a few embedded storms on it like what's happening today through South Canterbury.
Christchurch and the coast looks better for Sunday afternoon evening on a brief SW flick.
Upper air hovering - 22c to - 25C so still good for summer, but the upper jet and convergences is what we need to watch in terms of hail size and maybe rotation in slow moving storms.
I'd have the severe risk in the areas I just mentioned above.
Happy new year everyone, and cover those crops.
I am currently in Hanmer Springs so a good zone today for where the convergences are, will be much better late this afternoon into the evening I think.
The zone shifts slightly more SE tomorrow but I'm thinking given where the convergence is we may see isolated storms possibly severe around inland from Rakaia gorge north into North Canterbury and Marlborough.
45kt upper jet through here too, and things tend to form ahead of the main occluded line to the south.
This line might also have a few embedded storms on it like what's happening today through South Canterbury.
Christchurch and the coast looks better for Sunday afternoon evening on a brief SW flick.
Upper air hovering - 22c to - 25C so still good for summer, but the upper jet and convergences is what we need to watch in terms of hail size and maybe rotation in slow moving storms.
I'd have the severe risk in the areas I just mentioned above.
Happy new year everyone, and cover those crops.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
If I was still in Timaru I would be targeting Fairlie to Geraldine today.
GFS also likes the Molesworth station area.
GFS also likes the Molesworth station area.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Molesworth cob cottage campsite would be a great area to watch a storm if anyone can get up there, just camp on the higher ground!
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
skies have that unstable look here today
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Latest water vapour image showing the polar injected upper rotating cold pool is about to be cut off from the upper trough over the west coast of the SI.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Something is happening down there. Just came back for a look. Sadly too much lower cloud is moving in. Few sferics on the radio.
JohnGaul
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Nearly continuous thunder out the back of Woodbury. I'm nicely placed at Rangitata
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Warned storm heading for Geraldine then Temuka, another coming off Mt Hutt looks interesting on radar.
Last edited by Chris W on Fri 01/01/2021 16:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Yes, hearing those ominous rumbles, as well, Andrew. Too cloudy though to venture out and have a look. All seems to be in the cloud.
JohnGaul
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Two warned storms approaching Ashburton and Rakaia.
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
I see the severe thunderstorm watch has now been extended to include Ashburton and areas further west and north. Just had the newly warned cell pop up on my phone as I type this.
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Thunder has now eased here. Was of the elevated type as you could hear it high up in the cloud.
Wind gone more Southerly here with low cloud moving in from the south. Temperature dropping away as well.
Wind gone more Southerly here with low cloud moving in from the south. Temperature dropping away as well.
JohnGaul
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Re: New Year Thunderstorms
Is anyone planning on chasing in Canterbury tomorrow? I see metservice have added small tornadoes possible to the outlook. Could be some photogenic storms about.