General February Weather

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TonyT
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General February Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

The MJO is forecast to swing through a moderate phase 6 to 7 over the next ten days, and slowly weaken in phases 7 & 8 through the front two thirds of February. Phase 6/7 is the blocking anticyclone to the east phase which leads to northeast airflow anomalies over the North Island and weakening high pressure over the South Island, while the 7/8 phases are the northeast anomaly leading into dominant low pressure systems over and around the country.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by David »

Nice to see the La Nina easterlies due to come in but still no sign of real rain in the 10-day outlook. Hopefully Feb will eventually deliver.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

What's happening...no rain now in models
High too strong
Easterly surge though might bring a bit Auckland
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Temperatures in the first week of February look to be average to slightly below average for the country but significantly above average for inland Waikato and Otago/Southland.

Dry apart from isolated afternoon showers.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

GFS still showing the La Nina atmospheric signature on the equator has dissipated but there are signs of hope in a week or so from now. Once the equatorial easterlies strengthen again, this will assist in steering tropical depressions more west, giving an opportunity for cyclonic lows to catch a ride on a mid latitude trough towards NZ and strengthen the north east flow.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:Temperatures in the first week of February look to be average to slightly below average for the country but significantly above average for inland Waikato and Otago/Southland.

Dry apart from isolated afternoon showers.
Yea the MetService 10 day forecast has highs of 27-29 every day for the next 10 days for us. She’ll be a brown dust bowl here in two weeks.


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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by jamie »

It’s going to take a monumental shift in weather patterns to make February a wetter than normal month for much of the country.


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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

yeah...the remains of a coral sea TC drifting into the north tasman...is the only thing on the horizon...but by then there is a replacement high pressure coming in from south of australia to keep it out
I might not be able to face the music going to the next farmers discussion group lol

the weather pattern is more neutral rather than La Nina ...its a claytons la nina ...
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

jamie wrote: Sun 31/01/2021 09:15 It’s going to take a monumental shift in weather patterns to make February a wetter than normal month for much of the country.


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MJO is still on track to take the first half of Feb to swing through 7 and then hit 8 a little after mid-month. So a monumental shift is indeed on its way, but for many the drier phase 7 first half might outweigh the rain that falls in the second half.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Sun 31/01/2021 09:22 the weather pattern is more neutral rather than La Nina ...its a claytons la nina ...
This Nina has faded out to neutral in the eastern tropical Pacific, and is on the way out in the west. Several months earlier than expected (and than usual). However it looks to come back strong in the winter. Tasman Sea is now mostly cooler than normal (models had this happening in 2-3 months time, not now) so won't be supporting enhanced low pressure system development. Huey has pulled a fast one on us...
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

strong sunshine over the tasman sea the next 10 days will help bring the sea temperatures back up
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Re: General February Weather

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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by cbm »

Have just come over the hill to Raglan and the Te Uku windfarm was stalled due to lack of wind. The seabreeze just starting in kick into life here.

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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

we did have fog in the valley here overnight due to lack of wind
do those turbines have to go through a start up procedure?
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by cbm »

Not sure, but only one other time have I seen them all not turning at all.
There is normally some wind up on that ridge, even on a generally calm day.

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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by David »

Temps only 13C / 24C for the first day of Feb. Lacking the usual late Jan/early Feb heat & humidity this year.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice sunny day but with some high cloud to start off February.
24.6C for today with southerly breezes turning more easterly during the afternoon.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The latest BoM's longwave radiation minimum map showing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is dropping well south of the 1981-2010 climatology. I'm calling it, floods for the North Island in the 2nd half of February.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Big call
but anything goes just about

anyone notice there is a thin brown haze in the sky today?
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Awhituobs wrote: Tue 02/02/2021 14:50
anyone notice there is a thin brown haze in the sky today?
It will be local pollution given there is an inversion.

Highest temps today Alexandra and Pukaki on 30C.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

That inversion is causing false rain echoes
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Low cloud and mist overnight and early this morning, with the cloud gradually lifting and cleared away from noon, becoming a pleasant fine day with various high cloud and pleasant temperatures with NE winds.
Today's maximum was 26.5C.
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Re: General February Weather

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Both UK & EC bringing cyclone Lucas into the southern Tasman as a strong extratropical cyclone on the 12z runs.
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Re: General February Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

A lot of mixing of humid warm subtropical air through the mid-latitudes and deep into the Southern Ocean (in the northerly flow), alongside dry cold air from the sub-polar seas through the mid-latitudes close to the sub-tropical zone.
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Re: General February Weather

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28c today for Hamilton, Pukaki and Wanaka. Dunedin Airport 25C plunging to 17C on a southerly change.
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