Coldest year in decades 2021

talbotmj15
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Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Most major climate models are picking a colder than normal year by quite some degree.

By year end sea temps look decisively colder than normal.

Antarcticas ice shelfs have had little melt compared to normal. Will be interested to see what effects this has on our weather this year also.

Antarctica being colder than normal too. Certainly some interesting times ahead. I thought this may been the case but i now see Tony is on board with this too.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

antarctica sea ice is about normal for the current time
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

global sea temps are around normal overall...but yeah not as warm as other recent years
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/ ... bal&c=ssta
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Interesting subject, especially if we have back to back La Ninas. University of Alabama has just released January's lower tropospheric temps overnight . Global temps now showing a drop of 0.5c in the last few months. Surface temps at 2 metres temps showing a similar decline on JRA. NOAA still a week away from releasing the RSS plots. Equatorial Pacific decline one factor you can assume, affecting both hemispheres.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

talbotmj15 wrote: Mon 01/02/2021 13:14 Most major climate models are picking a colder than normal year by quite some degree.

By year end sea temps look decisively colder than normal.

Antarcticas ice shelfs have had little melt compared to normal. Will be interested to see what effects this has on our weather this year also.

Antarctica being colder than normal too. Certainly some interesting times ahead. I thought this may been the case but i now see Tony is on board with this too.
Well as Jim Hickey would say, "Better fill up the Woodbox" then 8-o
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

reminds of the joke about the north american indian's collecting firewood early...and so everyone thought it was going to be a cold winter..but they heard it was going to be on the radio..
talbotmj15
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Well 8f you spent more time doing your own research rather than stupid comments you would see people like NOAA are on board with a global cool down along with many others. But hey what do they no. Lol
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Bradley »

Everyone should watch Tony’s explanation on Facebook around a week ago explaining why he believes this will be one of the coldest years of the last decade coming up. Backed up by solid data and consistent computer modelling output. Anyone denying that all the signs aren’t there is just being wilfully ignorant or pursuing their own, policitcally motivated agenda...
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote: Thu 04/02/2021 11:31 Everyone should watch Tony’s explanation on Facebook around a week ago explaining why he believes this will be one of the coldest years of the last decade coming up. Backed up by solid data and consistent computer modelling output. Anyone denying that all the signs aren’t there is just being wilfully ignorant or pursuing their own, policitcally motivated agenda...
I think I said coldest WINTERS, not year. But thanks for the like!
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

politically motivated agenda?
what are you on about?
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I wreakin it will be a cold year this year as February has been giving some indications with some cold temperatures to start off the month when temperatures should be in the thirties. Interesting to see how we go. Anticyclones moving to the south of us with ridging over NZ doesn't give much hope for warm weather.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Awhituobs wrote: Thu 04/02/2021 19:35 politically motivated agenda?
what are you on about?
When you put up silly attack comments in stark contrast to solid consistent data thats out there you look silly.

Last year was the coldest in a decade. Data suggests this cooling will continue all of this year and maybe into next year. NOAA are also stating global sea temps will be alot cooler than now by end of the year.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Nev »

talbotmj15 wrote: Thu 11/02/2021 12:40 Last year was the coldest in a decade. Data suggests this cooling will continue …
Not sure what you're referring to?

According to NIWA, the national average temp for 2020 was 13.24C, making it NZ's 5th warmest year during the last 10 years, as well as being the 7th warmest year on record in 111 years of records. Also note that 6 of NZ's 10 warmest years on record occurred during the last 10 years - only 2012 was (slightly) below average.

NIWA 7SS Annual Average Temp Anomalies.png

And according to NOAA, globally, 2020 was the second warmest year in 141 years of records, with 2016 being the warmest.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Razor »

talbotmj15 wrote: Thu 11/02/2021 12:40
Awhituobs wrote: Thu 04/02/2021 19:35 politically motivated agenda?
what are you on about?
When you put up silly attack comments in stark contrast to solid consistent data thats out there you look silly.

Last year was the coldest in a decade. Data suggests this cooling will continue all of this year and maybe into next year. NOAA are also stating global sea temps will be alot cooler than now by end of the year.
Statements like this need hard evidence please... every scientific piece of research I have seen says this is not true
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

La Nina is now showing a widespread affect on surface and troposphere's temps. The equatorial heat flux it propagated poleward in December 2020, kicked off a major sudden stratospheric warming event over the North Pole in January, causing the current northern hemispheric mid latitude cold waves. Longer terms models are still suggesting a back to back La Nina into late 2021. Interesting times.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

JRA takes the earth's 2 metre surface temp to near -0.2 below the 1981-2010 climatology as of yesterday.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

so the chances of the coldest year in decades (which means for more than 20 years) might come true?
La Nina is slowly weakening
but that large area of colder than normal water in the pacific is un surprisingly having a global affect
add to that the current solar minimum and of course you end up with a global cool down (once La Nina fades back to neutral then that would you think to a more gradual return to more normal global temperatures...if that happens in the second half of the year then that will negate the colder first half of the year so its a still a big call for the temperatures to be sustained for the whole year...thoughts?)
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

2 cents worth.

As you can see on the JRA graph, the global 2 metre temperature has shown a steady decline since February/ March 2020 until now. February 2020 climaxed around 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average, then started to decline which lines up with the coupling affects of the Spring 2019 South Pole Sudden Stratospheric warming and Oz bushfires back into the troposphere. I was curious about this impact in the initial stages of the SSW thread in 2019 due to the change in chemistry in the stratosphere, like what happened with Mt Pinatubo in the early 90's when global temps cooled. viewtopic.php?p=184792#p184792

The 2019 SSW event was kicked off from a cooling of the central equatorial Pacific in August 2019 sending heat flux into the stratosphere and changing the ozone chemistry. A similar ocean cooling occurred in August 2020 and turned into La Nina. If CFSv2 verifies this year, we could be in the middle of a medium term equatorial Pacific cooling feedback loop. Time will tell if the cooling continues. :popcorn:
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

thats worth more than 2 cents
i wonder if colder global temperatures will equate to a return to more normal or even above normal rainfall for the upper NI
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

i see Germany just has had 21c
warmest winter day on record
China also having a heatwave
all as a result of a wavey polar jet stream
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

JRA55 (2m surface) and UAH (lower troposphere) have released the latest temps overnight for March compared to the 1990-2020 average. JRA55 +0.10c for 2m surface, UAT -0.01c for lower troposphere.

UAH has Australia coming in -0.79c below average (1990-2020), global sea temps -0.07c, tropics -0.29c the coolest since June 2012.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

statistically it does not look very probable for this year globally to end up being coldest in decades (which I take as meaning for at least 20 years or more)
i.e would need to end up being one heck of an outlier
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Fri 05/02/2021 20:32 I wreakin it will be a cold year this year as February has been giving some indications with some cold temperatures to start off the month when temperatures should be in the thirties. Interesting to see how we go. Anticyclones moving to the south of us with ridging over NZ doesn't give much hope for warm weather.
Not looking like it now, sadly, with no snow on the mountains and a rather warm April here. May looks as though it will be a warm month as well.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

UAH (lower troposphere) have released the latest global temps over the weekend for April compared to the 1990-2020 average. Has dropped again to -0.05c for lower troposphere. Still early days with 8 months to go but the 13 month trend line continues to fall globally, tropics and for the Southern hemisphere. Locally, my 2 metre year to date temperature is 0.5c below my 2018-20 average but too short term to read anything in to.
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Re: Coldest year in decades 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

i cant see it ending up being the coldest year in decades
coldest year for a few years yes
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