UK Weather - Spring 2021

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Spring started with a glorious sunny and mild day on Monday, but the cloud has progressively filled-in since then and we have had a dull + misty day today (Weds 3rd March) with showery outbreaks of rain spreading to most parts of the UK. It has been mild, but not as mild as the last third of February.

High pressure has built to our NW in the last couple of days and this will push a cold front south westwards over the UK on Thursday bringing a change to colder weather and still mostly dry. We should see some sunshine and the return of frosty nights into the weekend. After that, the high will continue SE and exit the UK into Europe as an invigorated jet stream moves across the Atlantic to bring much more unsettled weather back to the UK by early next week - it could get rather wet & windy again.

Late of Sunday night (around 10pm on 28th Feb), a very bright fireball was seen across a wide section of the UK (estimated at magnitude -12) and there is some hope that fragments might have reached the ground.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56241511
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been mostly dry, albeit rather chilly, over the last few days as high pressure has dominated the scene and we have had plenty of sunshine. However, these clear skies have resulted in some very chilly nights with a sharp frost in places. The last two nights have seen minimums of-7°C in parts of Wales and SW England, the latter not normally noted as the coldest part of the UK. Dry and sunny again here in the SW today (Mon 8th March) and we saw a maximum of 10°C here in Tiverton despite a frosty start to the day.

Big change in the weather coming in the next couple of days with a very strong jet stream crossing the Atlantic with a deep low developing as it reaches the UK on Thursday - would not be surprised if it is named Storm Evert. Looks like lots of wind and rain to come from Wednesday onwards and into the weekend, but there is some hope of a return of high pressure next week and some milder days.

The CET for March was 3.8°C (-1.0°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 4mm up to the 6th, which is 8% of the monthly total of 74mm.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A few fragments of the fireball have been found in the village of Winchcombe, Gloucestershire, which is in the zone suggested by the mathematics. They are of the rather rare carbonaceous chondrite variety which were evidently created at roughly the same time as the suns accretion disc coalesced into the planets, i.e.4.6 billion years ago. More in this BBC story:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56337876

After more frost and sunshine on Monday + Tuesday of this week, today has seen a return to rain and wind and we are expecting a cooler and very windy end to the week. Should see some decent convection as well for the next few days with a few hail showers locally.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have had a long spell of very windy weather here in the UK and plenty of rain and showers/hail to accompany it. Gusts in excess of 80mph were recorded on a number of days at the end of last week and over the weekend, but damage appears to have been light. High pressure has been building from the SW since Sunday and it was a much calmer and drier day on Monday - and quite mild here in Tiverton with 13°C reached this afternoon.

The high will build just to the west of the UK over the next few days to give us some drier and brighter weather and with temperatures around normal for a while. The models suggest that the high may move a bit more to our NW late in the week and this could introduce a colder continental flow, but the current trend is to downplay this.

The CET for March was 5.2°C (+0.1°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 33mm up to the 13th which is 44% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has been rather benign here in the UK for the last few days as high pressure has remained to our west and fed generally cloudy weather in off the North Sea, but there have been some regional variations. Some areas have been favoured by breaks in the cloud and particularly so for parts of Scotland, where sunshine and a local fohn condition led to the highest temperature of the year so far being recorded in and around Edinburgh on Thursday 18th March. Grangemouth recorded a high of 19.3°C and Edinburgh Botanic Gardens 19.0°C, along with around 8 hours of sunshine. It might be a few weeks before this is beaten in the south of the UK.

The high (1039mb) is currently located to the west of the UK and will slowly drift SE into Europe keeping the weather fine and dry here in the UK with hopefully more breaks in the cloud on Sunday, before more unsettled conditions arrive from the Atlantic by mid-week. Looks like staying generally mild, though.

The CET for March was 5.8°C (+0.6°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 38mm up to the 18th which is 51% of the monthly average. Not sure why the CET is not updating.

EDIT: More details on the Gloucestershire meteor below. A loud sonic boom was heard over SW England yesterday (Saturday 20th March) and a bright meteor was filmed over Jersey at the same time - 3pm. As it was clearly visible during daylight, it is suspected that another meteorite fell to ground. Interestingly, I heard nothing here in Tiverton! - I was indoors so maybe the double glazing got in the way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56326246
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Not a lot happening on the weather front here in the UK - mostly dry and normal temperatures with some sunshine at times. All very bland. The milder weather has meant a big reduction in the heating bill!

We should see a cold front cross the country tomorrow (Fri 26th Mar) with a period of rain and this will introduce much colder weather with the showers turning wintry on high ground and in the north. But this will only be a short incursion of colder weather as it will turn mostly dry and milder over the weekend - we might see some decent spring-like weather early next week, especially in more south eastern parts.

The CET for March was 6.5°C (+1.1°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 40mm up to the 23rd which is 54% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Some interesting weather at last. The cold snap was short lived, but there was a brief covering of snow to quite low levels (150m amsl) in northern parts of the UK on Saturday morning and a sharp frost in the far north - down to -5.6°C at Kinbrace in Sutherland. No snow here in Tiverton but we did have a few hail showers on Friday and it was only 7°C mid-afternoon. It is milder today (Sunday 28th March) but cloudy and dull with a little drizzle here in Tiverton and 12°C - but very wet in more north western parts such as Cumbria + N Wales. The wet theme will continue in the NW as the weather improves elsewhere.

This milder air is moving north and with increasing sunshine from Monday onwards, it will become pleasantly warm over the UK, especially in more southern parts. We could see maximums of 22-23°C on Tues/Weds before colder air spreads south later in the week. Some of the charts for the Easter weekend look very cold indeed with the 516mb thickness line getting into Scotland by Monday.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by spwill »

London still on 20C at 7pm.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed, spwill - we have had two sunny and warm days here in the southern half of the UK - further north and west it has been cloudy and wet. Today, Tuesday 30th March, has been very warm and I think it will rank as the second warmest March day on record. Here are a few of today's maximum temperatures which are all in and around London:

24.5°C at Kew Gardens
24.2°C at St James Park
24.1°C at RAF Northolt
23.9°C at London Heathrow.

22°C was reached quite widely over the UK and as far north as Yorkshire and as far west as the west Wales coast. The record for March is currently 25.6°C which was recorded in Mepal, Cambridgeshire on 20th March 1968. Wednesday is also expected to be warm and sunny in the SE and we could get very close to this record.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The very warm early Spring weather continued for a couple more days in the UK with a maximum of 23.9°C at Weybourne (Norfolk) on Wednesday and 19.9°C at Virginstowe (Devon) on Thursday. It has turned generally cooler since then, but it has still been quite spring-like during the day with plenty of sunshine away from eastern coastal counties. Indeed, the mercury reached 17.8°C at Drumnadrochit in northern Scotland yesterday, Saturday 4th April. There have also been some large diurnal ranges - yesterday at Braemar the temperature lifted from a morning low of -5.3°C to an afternoon high of 17.1°C to give a daily range of 22.4°C

The warm air from the south brought with it elevated Saharan dust and here in the SW we had a few light rain showers on Thursday afternoon which left a deposit of this dust everywhere. It was particularly bad here in Tiverton and my car was covered in it - see photo below.

There is about to be a dramatic change in the weather with a plunge of pure Arctic air moving south across the UK from later today and lasting well into the coming week. We will see wintry showers and plenty of frost, so a return to winter is on the cards. The air looks to be very dry, so the showers will be over Scotland and both the eastern and western coasts - not much inland unless a general feature (trough) develops - what are known as polar lows can sometimes form under these synoptic conditions, although the models are not indicating this at present.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by spwill »

The weather pattern ahead for UK looks brutal.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed spwill, it has certainly turned rather chilly here in the UK - we have had our first potent springtime northerly for quite a while.

The cold front cleared away southwards last Sunday giving us three cold and showery days with frosty nights. We even had a few snow and soft hail showers here in Tiverton which gave us a brief dusting of snow on Monday morning - but it soon melted. I travelled to Milton Keynes (for work - we are still in a general lockdown) and drove through a few further wintry showers, but when I arrived in MK at around 6pm we had a very heavy snow shower that left a general covering of about 1cm - except on the roads. The car thermometer fell to 0°C and did not recover - by the morning, local stations were reporting temperatures as low as -5°C and it took a while to scrape off the frost and frozen snow from the car.

The brunt of the cold weather was felt in Scotland with some stations barely getting above freezing on Monday + Tuesday and up to 10cm of snow was reported. These pictures will give a taste of the weather up north:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56638415

It was briefly a little milder on Thurs/Fri, but the cold flow from the N-NW has returned for today, Saturday 10th April.

The CET for April was 5.9°C (-0.6°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was just 2mm also up to the 8th, which is 3% of the monthly average of 62mm.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by spwill »

Continues on the chilly side this week but with plenty of dry weather.
Great to see shops and some hospitality will open today _b as restrictions around Covid continue to ease.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained rather chilly and also mostly dry with just a few showers to trouble the rain gauges - this April is shaping up to be one of the driest for a while. The nights have been persistently cold with some very sharp frosts for the time of the year - on 11 of the first 15 days of April, somewhere in the UK has recorded a minimum of -5°C or lower. There has been a run of low figures this last week:

Saturday 10th April, -7.8°C at Shap Fell (Cumbria)
Sunday 11th April, -8.7°C at Tulloch Bridge (Highlands)
Monday 12th April, -9.4°C at Tulloch Bridge
Tuesday 13th April, -8.0°C at Braemar (Highlands)

Not record breaking, but cold by recent standards - the record low for April remains the -15.4°C recorded at Eskdalemuir Observatory (Dumfries & Galloway) on 2nd April 1917.

The outlook remains predominantly dry and rather cool, although there is the prospect of a slow warm-up next week.

The CET for April was 5.6°C (-1.2°C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 4mm also up to the 13th, which is just 7% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The long run of frosty nights has continued with another one recorded this morning here in Tiverton. That makes 14 mornings this month out of 18 with a visible frost deposit at dawn. The upside has been dry and sunny days, but the maximum temperature has been in the range of 11-14°C, so rather cool. This weather pattern looks like continuing for much of the rest of the month with generally dry weather and sunny days with a frost in places at night. It should get a little warmer, but only up to around the average for the time of year - there is no sign of anything warm in the model output at the moment.

The CET for April was 5.7°C (-1.5°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 5mm up to the 16th, which is just 8% of the monthly average. The CET for April is currently running just half a degree warmer than for February this year.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looked like a fine, sunny day for the funeral today. Possibly was a frost there this morning.
Nearly a frost here this morning, down to 2.3C.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Royal events, sad or joyous, have all had good weather in recent years. The privileged even win in the weather stakes!

The manly dry and sunny weather has persisted over the UK as we remain dominated by high pressure mostly to our west or north. The night frosts have diminished and it has become a little warmer by day - yesterday saw the highest temperature of the month so far of only 18.6°C which was recorded at both Heathrow and Pershore in Worcestershire. That might be as high as it gets until May making this the first sub 20°C maximum April for quite a while. It has also been a very dry month with not much rain in prospect before the change to May and it is remarkable how quickly the soil has dried out after the winter rains.

With a reload of near Arctic sourced air today we will see some more frosty nights into the weekend. Many places have seen 10-15 nights with frost this month already which would be above average for the winter months.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained gloriously sunny over the last few days over most of the UK with near 14 hours of sunshine per day. The forecasters underestimated the temperatures somewhat as it has been a bit warmer than expected, although nothing spectacular. The temperature has reached 19-21°C on the western side of the UK as the high pressure just to our north has been giving easterly winds which has meant a rather cool east coast but warmer the further west you go.

Not much change expected for the next few days, although it will cool down a bit.

Attached is a photo from Saturday when it was sunny all day in Tiverton and up to 17°C. The picture was taken from the Peoples Park and overlooks the ground of Tiverton Town FC.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The dry weather has finally come to an end today and what was going to be a record dry April will now not happen. A low pressure system has moved south across the UK and brought showery rain overnight and into today, Wednesday the 28th. Not much rain here in Tiverton so far, but if the sun breaks through later today, we could see some sharp convective rainfall.

The forecast for the next two weeks looks dire, with the cold north to north east flow persisting and plenty of rain or showers by the time we get to early May. There will even be snow on the northern hills and the frosts will return.

Talking of frosts, it has been the frostiest April since at least 1960 according to the Met Office with some sites seeing 25 nights with a sub zero minimum up to this morning (the 28th).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56903882
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has turned rather more unsettled in the last few days with what we would describe as 'April showers' and they have continued into early May. It has not got any warmer and we continue to have some quite sharp frosts at night. This morning (Sunday 2nd May) the temperature fell to -6.1°C at St Harmon in the middle of Wales and this is just 0.1°C shy of the Wales record low for all of May.

The final figures for April have not been published yet, but it was cold and dry - indeed it was around the 10th driest April in the EWR series going back to 1766. it was also very sunny and looks like it might have just beaten the UK April sunshine record set only last year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... -dry-april

Right on cue for the Spring Bank Holiday tomorrow we have the first deep low to cross the country for over a month and there are already wind warnings in place. The low, with a central pressure around 985mb, will cross the centre of the UK and will again introduce another shot of Artic air as it departs on Tuesday. More cold and showery days to come next week with more frost at night.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The low duly gave us a wet and windy day last Monday with gusts to 70-80mph in more exposed parts of the western coast of the UK. Since then we have seen a return to the cold NW-N feed from the Arctic with sunshine and showers, with plenty of hail and even sleet and snow over higher ground in the north. Not very seasonal at all.

Today, (Sat 8th) we have seen a band of heavy rain move NE over the UK and this is introducing warmer air to the country. Here in Tiverton it has been cloudy with drizzly rain all day and with a fresh southerly breeze, but it has felt quite a bit milder at 15°C. This milder air will be with us for a few days and we might see 21°C in the SE tomorrow if the cloud breaks. The low responsible for today's rain looks set to be anchored just to our west well into next week which will mean showers or longer periods of rain and some sunny spells. Not looking overly mild after Sunday and no sign of 'summer' yet.

The final CET for April was 6.4°C (-1.5°C) and the final EWR was 14mm, which is just 22% of the monthly average . April was nearly a degree colder than March.

For May, the CET was 7.0°C (-2.9°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 23mm up to the 6th, which is 35% of the monthly average of 65mm.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There has been much debate in weather circles as to whether this little event is a dust devil or a small spin-up/landspout. It occurred near Gateshead, which is in NE England, on Friday 7th May 2021.

The exact surface conditions are not fully known - there were showers in the area after a mostly sunny morning and some rain had fallen as evidenced by the rain spots on the car window and this might stack against a dust devil. If it had remained mostly dry, then maybe not. There is evidence of a convergence zone over the area.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-tyne-57033510

Further discussion here if you are interested.

https://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/ ... ad-752021/
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The very unsettled weather has continued with plenty of rain and showers, although not much in the way of wind......or sunshine. It has been unseasonably cold now for more than 6 weeks and there is no prospect of summer starting in the next 5-7 days. it is very much a case of the anomalous north westerly flow courtesy of the ending of the La Nina phase.

Every day in the last week has seen rain or heavy showers with hail, thunderstorms, numerous funnel clouds and a couple of tornadoes - indeed a very minor one affected the town of Cullompton which is only 10 miles from me.

The CET for May was 9.2°C (-1.3°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 62mm up to the 14th, which is 95% of the monthly average - making up for the dry March + April very quickly.

The Met Office have a blog entry on the miserable start to May:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/05/1 ... ay-so-far/
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cold and showery theme continues with hail, thunder, funnel clouds etc and still chilly for the time of the year. London has been hit on both Monday + Tuesday afternoons by thunderstorms and heavy hail, reducing the temperature to 10°C. Not very summery at all.

The BBC has produced two pieces on why the weather has been so crap this May here in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/57156159

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57149441

Forecast for the next 5 days is not looking better, although there is a hint of high pressure exerting more of an influence by the end of the month. A deepening depression is on its way for Thurs/Fri with gales and heavy rain. Winter rolls on!
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: UK Weather - Spring 2021

Unread post by spwill »

NZ often has a cool Spring pattern but latitude helps keep us out of the colder air like UK has experienced this Spring.
Post Reply