Rain & storms NI- 29 Mar 1 Apr

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Rain & storms NI- 29 Mar 1 Apr

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Thought this might be worth a separate thread. Plenty of potential over the next 48 hours. Northland and Auckland now under a severe thunderstorm watch for today.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Cyclone Tracy on Wed 31/03/2021 07:54, edited 1 time in total.
Peter
Posts: 433
Joined: Wed 05/05/2004 09:03
Location: Pt Chevalier, New Zealand
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 13 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Peter »

Areal coverage of severe risk extended further south on latest outlook
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Peter
Posts: 433
Joined: Wed 05/05/2004 09:03
Location: Pt Chevalier, New Zealand
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 13 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Peter »

Tornado Tim wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 10:32 Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
... didn’t there were Pivotal Weather products for NZ? - I’ve always just used them for USA storm chasing ...
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Peter wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 10:45
Tornado Tim wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 10:32 Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
... didn’t there were Pivotal Weather products for NZ? - I’ve always just used them for USA storm chasing ...
For pivotal - I dont use the custom severe weather indexes they provide as they are tailored for US forecast analysis, just the hodograph and wind vectoring to see the difference with height.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see later tomorrow and Wednesday being the main period for thunderstorms over the upper North Island when the upper level cooling gets more over the area.

GFS has been indicating an isolated supercell risk which would correspond to hail/tornado if it happened.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by NZstorm »

Peter wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 10:45

... didn’t there were Pivotal Weather products for NZ? - I’ve always just used them for USA storm chasing ...
I'm sure Pivotal weather did offer more products for Australia/NZ but they scaled back. I find the soundings of some use though.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by David »

A rather uneventful day here, hopefully better action tomorrow
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by NZstorm »

David wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 17:22 A rather uneventful day here, hopefully better action tomorrow

I thought we might get a bit of drizzle atleast given onshore NE. But good to see a fine sort of a day.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18485
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

David wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 17:22 A rather uneventful day here, hopefully better action tomorrow
I think there was a wee bit of action in the Waikato today, but no reports have come in.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

It was most entertaining today to watch the MS published rainfall projection of nearly 100mm for central Auckland miss every hour with zilch. It's not giving up though, with another 33mm projected before midnight atm :lol:

The main course still looks on track for late tomorrow into Wednesday AM. Tonight's EC 00z run showing plenty of electricity.
spwill
Posts: 9903
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 864 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, showers were a no show today apart from the very early morning stuff.
Upper level cooling tomorrow with the very moist air still in place, afternoon dewpoint here today was a humid 19C.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by David »

Metservice now going for just a low risk here tomorrow 😞
Image
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Still in the 00z run. Risk of Supercells with significant hail from Northland to Waitomo if GFS verifies.

Hail forecast sounding suggesting hail of up to 0.75" (1.95 CM).

Tomorrow could end up being a very interesting day.

ECMWF also has the atmosphere quite unstable areas (1600j/kg+) with decent shear. Storms should they pop up in those area could very well turn super cellular quick. :mrgreen:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Awhituobs »

very warm night for the time of year
(20.2c currently here)
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

David wrote: Mon 29/03/2021 20:46 Metservice now going for just a low risk here tomorrow 😞
They are probably not weighting any decision based on GFS - it hasnt been flip flopping either which i am curious as to why they haven't given it bit more weight.

Regardless whatever the model you pick, there is moisture, shear and its unstable. If a storm eventuates the risk is real.

Interesting they didn't even mention hail either....
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Awhituobs »

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued by MetService at 8:55 pm Monday 29-Mar-2021

Heavy rain for parts of the North Island

A slow-moving front just west of the North Island should begin to
move eastwards on Wednesday. This front is expected to bring periods
of northerly rain to much of the North Island, and heavy falls and
embedded thunderstorms are possible in the north and west.

People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts as parts of this
Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and new areas may be added to the
Watch.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Awhituobs »

looking much better now...shower lines developing...Waikato has had a good one early this morning
and another one is developing to my north
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by NZstorm »

Should get heavy precip and a rumble of thunder in Auckland today, frequent lightning possible tomorrow morning as the front crosses.
Last edited by NZstorm on Tue 30/03/2021 07:24, edited 1 time in total.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Awhituobs »

nice heavy rain here currently :)
I see Jamie in the Waikato has had good rain too overnight :)
User avatar
David
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by David »

Getting pretty heavy rain right now in Auckland City. Narrow band, looks like it misses home out east.
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by David »

Also, did not go below 20C here overnight, pretty hot for almost April!
Image
spwill
Posts: 9903
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 864 times

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by spwill »

Looks like some heavy showers for West Auckland next hr going by radar, a developing line of showery rain.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Awhituobs »

strikes.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yup got some Thunder around Raglan atm 🙂
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Locked