Rain & storms NI- 29 Mar 1 Apr
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Rain & storms NI- 29 Mar 1 Apr
Thought this might be worth a separate thread. Plenty of potential over the next 48 hours. Northland and Auckland now under a severe thunderstorm watch for today.
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Last edited by Cyclone Tracy on Wed 31/03/2021 07:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Areal coverage of severe risk extended further south on latest outlook
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- Tornado Tim
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
... didn’t there were Pivotal Weather products for NZ? - I’ve always just used them for USA storm chasing ...Tornado Tim wrote: ↑Mon 29/03/2021 10:32 Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
For pivotal - I dont use the custom severe weather indexes they provide as they are tailored for US forecast analysis, just the hodograph and wind vectoring to see the difference with height.Peter wrote: ↑Mon 29/03/2021 10:45... didn’t there were Pivotal Weather products for NZ? - I’ve always just used them for USA storm chasing ...Tornado Tim wrote: ↑Mon 29/03/2021 10:32 Eeesh! Supercells deff a chance looking at tomorrows forecast sounding for Waikato, will be keen to see the 00z run later on today.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
I see later tomorrow and Wednesday being the main period for thunderstorms over the upper North Island when the upper level cooling gets more over the area.
GFS has been indicating an isolated supercell risk which would correspond to hail/tornado if it happened.
GFS has been indicating an isolated supercell risk which would correspond to hail/tornado if it happened.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
I'm sure Pivotal weather did offer more products for Australia/NZ but they scaled back. I find the soundings of some use though.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
I thought we might get a bit of drizzle atleast given onshore NE. But good to see a fine sort of a day.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
I think there was a wee bit of action in the Waikato today, but no reports have come in.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
It was most entertaining today to watch the MS published rainfall projection of nearly 100mm for central Auckland miss every hour with zilch. It's not giving up though, with another 33mm projected before midnight atm
The main course still looks on track for late tomorrow into Wednesday AM. Tonight's EC 00z run showing plenty of electricity.
The main course still looks on track for late tomorrow into Wednesday AM. Tonight's EC 00z run showing plenty of electricity.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Yes, showers were a no show today apart from the very early morning stuff.
Upper level cooling tomorrow with the very moist air still in place, afternoon dewpoint here today was a humid 19C.
Upper level cooling tomorrow with the very moist air still in place, afternoon dewpoint here today was a humid 19C.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Still in the 00z run. Risk of Supercells with significant hail from Northland to Waitomo if GFS verifies.
Hail forecast sounding suggesting hail of up to 0.75" (1.95 CM).
Tomorrow could end up being a very interesting day.
ECMWF also has the atmosphere quite unstable areas (1600j/kg+) with decent shear. Storms should they pop up in those area could very well turn super cellular quick.
Hail forecast sounding suggesting hail of up to 0.75" (1.95 CM).
Tomorrow could end up being a very interesting day.
ECMWF also has the atmosphere quite unstable areas (1600j/kg+) with decent shear. Storms should they pop up in those area could very well turn super cellular quick.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
very warm night for the time of year
(20.2c currently here)
(20.2c currently here)
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
They are probably not weighting any decision based on GFS - it hasnt been flip flopping either which i am curious as to why they haven't given it bit more weight.
Regardless whatever the model you pick, there is moisture, shear and its unstable. If a storm eventuates the risk is real.
Interesting they didn't even mention hail either....
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Issued by MetService at 8:55 pm Monday 29-Mar-2021
Heavy rain for parts of the North Island
A slow-moving front just west of the North Island should begin to
move eastwards on Wednesday. This front is expected to bring periods
of northerly rain to much of the North Island, and heavy falls and
embedded thunderstorms are possible in the north and west.
People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts as parts of this
Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and new areas may be added to the
Watch.
Issued by MetService at 8:55 pm Monday 29-Mar-2021
Heavy rain for parts of the North Island
A slow-moving front just west of the North Island should begin to
move eastwards on Wednesday. This front is expected to bring periods
of northerly rain to much of the North Island, and heavy falls and
embedded thunderstorms are possible in the north and west.
People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts as parts of this
Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and new areas may be added to the
Watch.
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
looking much better now...shower lines developing...Waikato has had a good one early this morning
and another one is developing to my north
and another one is developing to my north
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Should get heavy precip and a rumble of thunder in Auckland today, frequent lightning possible tomorrow morning as the front crosses.
Last edited by NZstorm on Tue 30/03/2021 07:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
nice heavy rain here currently
I see Jamie in the Waikato has had good rain too overnight
I see Jamie in the Waikato has had good rain too overnight
Brian Hamilton
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Getting pretty heavy rain right now in Auckland City. Narrow band, looks like it misses home out east.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Also, did not go below 20C here overnight, pretty hot for almost April!
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Looks like some heavy showers for West Auckland next hr going by radar, a developing line of showery rain.
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
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Re: Rain & storms NI 29-31 March
Yup got some Thunder around Raglan atm
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