NZ Weather Forum

I feel this has gone on so long its worth a new post. I got thinking when we got 10.1mm on Saturday that it was a rare event lately to get to double figures. Just how rare is quite revealing.

Here in Halswell its the first time this year we passed 10mm, as at 19 April and little reason to thing that will change before May at least. Looking back through 2020 there were only 6 occurrences of days with 10mm or more, the most being 27mm in March 2020

7 occurrences of 10mm in 16 months. Incredible to think.

We are sitting on 61mm YTD 2021, on top of only 383mm for 2020. So thats 444mm in 16 months.

No wonder the landscape is screaming for a drink

looking like rain next week?

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Mon 19/04/2021 21:58 looking like rain next week?

Models are all over the show but hopes are there huh?

it will be murphy's law that now that you started this thread, you get rain haha

It's been a great autumn weather wise

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Awhituobs wrote: ↑Mon 19/04/2021 22:19 it will be murphy's law that now that you started this thread, you get rain haha

Aha you have of course stumbled on the real purpose of posting this thread

Call it a meteorological version of crickets' Commentators' Curse

I was astounded at how dry 2020 was in Christchurch and 2021 is following a similar vein compared to 2020. Jeff's has the end of March 2020 v 2021 as being within 1mm of each other. April so far has been extremely dry though, really hoping we get some much needed rain in the next few months.

Hopefully you guys get some good reprieve over the late Autumn and Winter. I still very much remember the 150mm we had in 6 months here November 2019 to April 2020 and how everything suffered from it. Thankfully we are doing much better up here this year rain wise.

Well tomorrows forecasted rain has now disappeared.... holding hopes for next week but not holding breath

Niwa in their latest season forecast bringing little cheer with indications pointing to warmer and dryer than normal winter for Coastal Canterbury

MS forecasting another dry week ahead except possibly for Sunday which looks less than 5-8mm anyway.

77mm give or take for the year mid way through May is incredibly dry.

JP. wrote: ↑Tue 04/05/2021 13:51 MS forecasting another dry week ahead except possibly for Sunday which looks less than 5-8mm anyway.

77mm give or take for the year mid way through May is incredibly dry.

Don't expect anything measureable on Sunday, maybe a few spots of brief spill-over if we are lucky. Looking at 25 degrees on Sunday, crazy! Another stunner today with 23, the same expected tomorrow. As of 9:45pm, it is 20 degrees in the Port Hills and 19 at Christchurch Airport. Amazing temperatures at this time of night for May! The lack of rainfall is becoming quite concerning!

re the above posting, also the lack of snow along the Alps. The ski fields might be worrying

Its interesting, I've noted a trend to regular warmer than usual May's in recent years. I'm only going anecdotally here but it feels like May in ChCh is the month that has been punching the warmest over average of all months

when i was a kid skiing on Mt Ruapehu was possible in the May School holidays and they had special vehicles to get up due to the depth of snow. now it's the end of july before there is enough snow.just anecdotal too.

I can re call noticing how mild the month of May was becoming as far back as the 1990's iin Auckland, although in recent years we have had some unusual frosty snaps here too.

Christchurch Could be on track for some rain mid next week, not holding my breath though.

Giz some rain pls.

Another article on the big dry.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farmin ... he-big-dry

I guess this thread won’t be getting many more posts.