General May Weather

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talbotmj15
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

TonyT wrote: Fri 14/05/2021 22:12
talbotmj15 wrote: Fri 14/05/2021 08:20 Silly question. Whats the chances the tropical low coming down NZs east coast interacts with the polar fronts and low from the south around 24/25th May. If so this would inject cold air into a mid low off the coast. This would energize it massively. Still a very long shot.

On another note. Coldest morning so far this year. 2021. -3.5 deg out oxford ways.
Aint gonna see any tropical depressions near NZ this time of year. But the week after next looks to be significantly colder than any so far, and has been consistently called as such in the longer range guidance for some time. Any disturbance in the force that week will have consequences. :D
Interestingly Tony the low pressure i alluded too which was coming down morths into 2 Low Pressure systems one out to the east and one out to the west of Northland.

What i suspected could happen is kinda happening. The Low pressure interaction is not timing up well but what the Lows appear to have down is completely displace the high pressures shape. This shape as we know is brilliant for low snow in Canterbury.

The high is able to dredge up some very cold air. Also noted is the as the flow turns from SW to S to SE to E almost the intensity of the moisture around the east coast goes up. Great for snow here again. The further east though the more the cold air is cut off. But when its SW through to SE its ideal too me.

The other thing is the prolonged nature of the event.
30hours or more.

The mountains will get nailed around Canterbury.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

talbotmj15 wrote: Sat 15/05/2021 17:36
TonyT wrote: Fri 14/05/2021 22:12

Aint gonna see any tropical depressions near NZ this time of year. But the week after next looks to be significantly colder than any so far, and has been consistently called as such in the longer range guidance for some time. Any disturbance in the force that week will have consequences. :D
Interestingly Tony the low pressure i alluded too which was coming down morths into 2 Low Pressure systems one out to the east and one out to the west of Northland.

What i suspected could happen is kinda happening. The Low pressure interaction is not timing up well but what the Lows appear to have down is completely displace the high pressures shape. This shape as we know is brilliant for low snow in Canterbury.

The high is able to dredge up some very cold air. Also noted is the as the flow turns from SW to S to SE to E almost the intensity of the moisture around the east coast goes up. Great for snow here again. The further east though the more the cold air is cut off. But when its SW through to SE its ideal too me.

The other thing is the prolonged nature of the event.
30hours or more.

The mountains will get nailed around Canterbury.
I think perhaps we are agreeing on the possible outcome, if not the likely mechanism.
talbotmj15
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

TonyT wrote: Sat 15/05/2021 18:09
talbotmj15 wrote: Sat 15/05/2021 17:36

Interestingly Tony the low pressure i alluded too which was coming down morths into 2 Low Pressure systems one out to the east and one out to the west of Northland.

What i suspected could happen is kinda happening. The Low pressure interaction is not timing up well but what the Lows appear to have down is completely displace the high pressures shape. This shape as we know is brilliant for low snow in Canterbury.

The high is able to dredge up some very cold air. Also noted is the as the flow turns from SW to S to SE to E almost the intensity of the moisture around the east coast goes up. Great for snow here again. The further east though the more the cold air is cut off. But when its SW through to SE its ideal too me.

The other thing is the prolonged nature of the event.
30hours or more.

The mountains will get nailed around Canterbury.
I think perhaps we are agreeing on the possible outcome, if not the likely mechanism.
Tony i tend to agree. Sure looks a good one to watch.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Expecting a cloudy day today but it ended up a blue dome day with cloud forming later on in the afternoon and this evening.
NE winds a bit fresh this afternoon but dying away this evening.
Today's maximum was 15.8C.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

this low from the north is back in the models..one to watch all right
could deliver the rain Canty needs
but its cold rain..its a bit too late for pasture growth recovery for the south island unless warm NWers return afterwards but at least it will be a start to recharge the ground moisture
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Some wintry air in the models in about a weeks time with onshore flow eastern parts of NZ. A Summer feel here today after a cool start.
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Re: General May Weather

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21C max at Whenuapai today.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

cloudstrip.png
reports of people seeing a very narrow jet stream streak cloud grow across just east of northland this afternoon
you can see it on the visible sat image :)
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Basically a fine day here with light wind wind and a maximum temperature of 13.2C.
no reports from here for the on coming week as we are up in the Wellington region.
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Re: General May Weather

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A crop of thunderstorms west of Northland this morning is coming Aucklands way! May get some rumbles late morning folks. Small hail and a squall.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I was just going to post the same thing! :)
Looks like a good squall line too...on the rain radar it has that narrow snaking heavy rain line in the middle

edit, I can easily see the top of the CB line from here
due around 10am?
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

woa, this squall line has picked up forward speed..coming in hot...will be here in an hour
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Re: General May Weather

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in coming
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Frontal activity died as it came onshore Auckland, tomorrows front will hold up much better.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Interesting up in Hanmer for my crazy 100 Mile race over the weekend. Friday was frigid, big frost that didn't thaw in some parts for the forest all day. NW arrived in the wee small hours of Saturday and created an odd feeling and the inversion layer mucked around- wafts of warm air among cold pools of frostiness as we ran around the course. Steady rain started around 3am and continued in spillover waves until early afternoon as the SW change came in.

Much more moisture in the ground in North Canty than there is at home, thats for sure!
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Re: General May Weather

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article in Farming paper..farmers on Banks Peninsula say its the driest in living memory
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Gfs is in agreement now of some potentially wintry weather coming in a weeks time.
Low level snow a threat for Canterbury, would be great news for the ski fields which open in june.
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Re: General May Weather

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mikestormchaser wrote: Mon 17/05/2021 12:32 Gfs is in agreement now of some potentially wintry weather coming in a weeks time.
Low level snow a threat for Canterbury, would be great news for the ski fields which open in june.
Low in level, but also probably low in quantity.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Nev »

Reports of a possible tornado lifting some roofing in Waitara, Taranaki around 12.30pm today.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tornado-r ... P25VZUBME/
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Re: General May Weather

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EC 18z showing a coupled lower stratospheric / upper tropospheric twin sister polar vortex over the Antarctic continent tomorrow. Recipe for rogue polar streamers heading equatorward over the next 2 weeks. Short to medium term model runs can upgrade cold shots quite quickly with this Polar Jet set up.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

From a frosty start in Geraldine and clear blue skies, flew up to Wellington today where it was very wet and overcast however cleared away this evening. Up here for a week.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

51 kt squall and another 5mm front through here at 6am
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by ricky »

Awhituobs wrote: Tue 18/05/2021 06:24 51 kt squall and another 5mm front through here at 6am
Only 20 kt and 1.4mm by the time it made it to here in grey lynn
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Re: General May Weather

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ricky wrote: Tue 18/05/2021 07:24
Awhituobs wrote: Tue 18/05/2021 06:24 51 kt squall and another 5mm front through here at 6am
Only 20 kt and 1.4mm by the time it made it to here in grey lynn
It produced 0.6mm for me and no real wind, max gust 24kmh.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

the rain radar did show i got hit by a nice cell in the line
but there was a break in the front that passed over the city
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