Interestingly Tony the low pressure i alluded too which was coming down morths into 2 Low Pressure systems one out to the east and one out to the west of Northland.TonyT wrote: ↑Fri 14/05/2021 22:12Aint gonna see any tropical depressions near NZ this time of year. But the week after next looks to be significantly colder than any so far, and has been consistently called as such in the longer range guidance for some time. Any disturbance in the force that week will have consequences.talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Fri 14/05/2021 08:20 Silly question. Whats the chances the tropical low coming down NZs east coast interacts with the polar fronts and low from the south around 24/25th May. If so this would inject cold air into a mid low off the coast. This would energize it massively. Still a very long shot.
On another note. Coldest morning so far this year. 2021. -3.5 deg out oxford ways.
What i suspected could happen is kinda happening. The Low pressure interaction is not timing up well but what the Lows appear to have down is completely displace the high pressures shape. This shape as we know is brilliant for low snow in Canterbury.
The high is able to dredge up some very cold air. Also noted is the as the flow turns from SW to S to SE to E almost the intensity of the moisture around the east coast goes up. Great for snow here again. The further east though the more the cold air is cut off. But when its SW through to SE its ideal too me.
The other thing is the prolonged nature of the event.
30hours or more.
The mountains will get nailed around Canterbury.