Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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NZstorm
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Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by NZstorm »

BIG cold 500mb trough affecting New Zealand next 2-3 days.

Typical cold advection thunderstorms probable for the upper North Island this weekend, mainly around the coast with Isolated waterspouts/hail.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Nev »

MS going with a moderate risk of thunder, hail, gales and maybe the odd small tornado for tomorrow…
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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The upper level temperatures are very cold over the upper North Island from Saturday night through Sunday.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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The central Tasman active with thunderstorms https://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellit ... ew-zealand
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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A front looks to be arriving over the Auckland area before dawn tomorrow morning and BOP after that. looks favourable for a tornado report from the Bay of Plenty tomorrow with good onshore flow there.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Nev »

Hearing distant rumbles to the north of here.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Coming in with very fast moving very heavy downpours here in Tauranga. Temperature jumped about 3° with it's arrival. Slightly concerned about this afternoon, that direction can be quite problematic here. Downstairs doors are now sandbagged, just in case.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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This morning's update for today...
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:51am Saturday 29 May 2021
Valid to Midnight Saturday 29 May 2021

A low deepens just west of central New Zealand today, while an unstable northerly flow covers northern and central New Zealand.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Coromandel Peninsula this morning and afternoon, and for Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from late morning through to early evening. These thunderstorms are likely to produce brief heavy rain, small hail and strong wind gusts of 90km/h, along with a slight chance of a small tornado.

There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms about northern and western parts of the North Island from Northland to North Taranaki throughout today, associated with the unstable north to northwest flow. These thunderstorms can produce brief heavy rain, hail up to 15mm diameter, and strong wind gusts of 90km/h. There is also a slight chance of a small tornado during the morning. A moderate risk of thunderstorms also affects Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds today, with localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr and small hail.

Finally, a broader low risk of thunderstorms covers the central North Island and the remainder of Marlborough this afternoon and evening, as indicated on the chart.

MetService T-storm map - May 29.png
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by spwill »

Upper air is cold by this evening. No rain recorded at Grey Lynn this morning, up to 18C this morning. Airport 0.2mm.
Last edited by spwill on Sat 29/05/2021 11:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by David »

Very little rain around so far... Dry trend continues, just reached 50mm for the month
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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Soil moisture anomaly, Niwa
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

nice lightning active CB line out to my west
tops are blown off to the south and look very cold
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by David »

Pressure has been down to 988 here today, the lowest since September 2019. And we have just 1mm of rain so far 🤔
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

and yet we have had 18mm here, woke me up it was so heavy on the roof
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by jamie »

3mm here from the last couple day


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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

nice CBs abound now
20210530_072500.jpg
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by spwill »

Unstable looking skies in the west.
Total rain so far at Grey Lynn with this complex low system is 1mm.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

looking like better rain for Auckland tomorrow as the low center crosses
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Nev »

7.5mm here so far. Plenty of lightning around the North Island yesterday, although most seems to have been more offshore.

Still a moderate risk for upper parts this arvo and evening (and tomorrow)…
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:44am Sunday 30 May 2021
Valid to Midnight Sunday 30 May 2021

A large low in the Tasman Sea moving slowly towards the North Island today, directing an unstable north to northwesterly flow across central and northern parts of the country. An associated front moves onto the northern North Island this evening.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms over Northland throughout today. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter. Note, as the front moves onto Northland this evening, the thunderstorms may also produce strong wind gusts of 90 km/h along with a slight chance of a small tornado.

There is a broad low risk of thunderstorms across much of the North Island and northern parts of Nelson and Marlborough, as depicted on the chart. However, the risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate for Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato this afternoon, and for eastern Bay of Plenty this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain, and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.

MetService T-storm map - May 30.png
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

CB's are pushing in better further in land now northland and auckland
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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Clouds trying to build,small hail here just now.
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

lightning strikes just off the coast from Waiuku :)
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

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Small hailstones mixed in with the rain here just now. For less than a minute
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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by jamie »

Thunder hail and gusty winds here for a short period


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Re: Possibly thundery around the coastal North Island to end May

Unread post by Awhituobs »

thunder here :)
row of CB, s out to sea
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