NZ Weather Forum

yeah that has only just shown up in the models
so that will moderate the temperatures for sure

tich wrote: ↑Wed 16/06/2021 15:59

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Wed 16/06/2021 06:59 looking at the long range on the models, looks like warm weather pattern to continue through June
might end up being one of the warmest Junes if the last week does not have a cold outbreak ?

Looks like a spell of cold southerlies next week.

interesting to see how it pans out, Ben/Brian. (Warm month/cold outbreak)
Forecasting hasn't been all that good since the floods, so it will interesting to see how the next rain event pans out over Canterbury and the cold event forecasted for nest week.
Anyway, it was a gloomy day here with it getting up to 12.2C with 1-7mm of patchy rain especially this morning.
Even though the sun does shine, the ground here has been rather wet with footpaths not drying out, since the floods.

Moderate risk put up for North Canterbury and Marlborough for Sunday into Monday on the severe weather outlook, low for mid-Canterbury (including Ashburton) and Wairarapa. GFS op run upping the rainfall for Kaikoura/Malrborough significantly today.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Wed 16/06/2021 17:49 yeah that has only just shown up in the models
so that will moderate the temperatures for sure

Looking at the models Auckland is still on track for a warm June, nothing cold there for Auckland but temperatures near average next week, southwesterlies. Grey Lynn averaging 11.4C -17.5C this month so far.

Beefy showers coming through Chch this evening. Brief hail just now, MS bang on

Clouding up with rain falling overnight and this morning but easing away this afternoon but remaining overcast, cold and damp.
0nly 8.9C with 12.8mm of rain.

Torrential rain now, we are under the red blob in the radar it seems, 13mn so far

MetService rain charts (UK model) today take most of the rain up to Wairarapa through Monday, GFS targets Marlborough and Wellington/Wairarapa. That would change the severe weather outlook which currently has moderate to high confidence for heavy rain from about the Waimak to Blenheim.

26mm yesterday and overnight in Halswell.

GFS starting to play around with a snow to sea level cold snap next Saturday for Canterbury. Low level moisture at this point with only 1-3cm to sea level so we will see what the next few days of model runs brings, could be the first real cold snap of the season

MS charts have brought back the rain for North Canterbury, ICON also going for 200mm+ into Monday for the Kaikõura ranges.

Thunderstorms showing up NW of Northland this evening. A fine evening in Auckland but unstable wet weather heading our way for the weekend.

Looks like Kaikoura may cop it this WE. Hope the rail and road links wont be affected from this event?
Some people down here worried too as it is still rather damp in places.

MS nudging things north but still retaining the moderate and high confidence areas. Doesn't look much of a threat to mid-Canterbury and Ashburton district though John.

Clearing up overnight but gradually clouding over from late morning. Nice to see the sun today.
Clouding up this afternoon but becoming partly cloudy this evening with the moon shining through the clouds.
Today's maximum was 10.2C.

there was stars last night in the sky
now its torrential rain

white out conditions here its so heavy we just had a brief westerly wind change and its now clear skies to my west
so a small low/vortex center has travelled down the coast line here

I see Ricky has picked up this rain band now too

Rainfall rate occasionally hitting 100mm/hr here.

Sounded like distant thunder just now. 4.8mm here this morning.

you should catch the edge of this rain band David , so add to your (much lower than places further west ) rain total

we have surface flooding/ponding here now
rain has stopped, blue skies to my west

flash flooding here!

I see that this station near Titirangi received 58mm
https://www.ecowitt.net/home/index?id=21638
I received around 50mm

13mm locally for that sunrise downpour, up to 54mm mtd, looks like another good chance for tomorrow morning on the next front.

6mm for me making 46mm month to date, running well below normal as did May.