UK Weather - Summer 2021

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Summer 2021 has started on a mostly dry and sunny note for the UK, although I am sure you will have noticed that day three of the 1st Test between England and New Zealand was washed out today - the rain was confined to the SE corner of the UK where some sites had around 10mm. It was fair cumulus and sunny intervals here today (Fri 4th June) in Tiverton and a top temperature of 20°C.

The highest temperature of the year so far was recorded on Wednesday (2nd June) with 28.3°C at RAF Northolt in NW London. However, this morning, there was a touch of ground frost in parts of Wales and here in SW England.

Looking forward, the outlook for the next 5 days with sunshine and warmer temperatures after the weekend. The rest of the Test Match should see dry weather at Lord's and spells of sunshine - looks like a fairly even match at the moment and well done to the lad who hit a double century for NZ on his debut - it does not get better than doing it at the HQ of Cricket.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The outlook for the past weekend was not very accurate as both days saw heavy showers in a few locations. Sunday 6th June was interesting as a mid level dry air intrusion into SW England provided additional lift as it spread NE and at least six funnel clouds were reported in England including the one near Bristol shown in this clip from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57379944

It has dried and warmed up since Sunday and we are looking at a warm and increasingly humid spell of weather into next week with the first 30*C temperature of the year likely to be recorded.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It was rather cloudy for the rest of the working week, but still quite warm and humid. This air was pushed away by a virtually dry cold front on Friday (11th June) and we have had a warm and sunny day on Saturday over most of the UK and with a lower humidity. The heat is set to build from tomorrow onwards and we will likely see 30°C reached in the SE by the middle of next week. The 13th of June is a meteorological anomaly in the UK as it is the only day of the three Summer months (June, July + August) on which 30°C has never been recorded, and these date records go back to the middle of the nineteenth century. However, current forecasts are suggesting a maximum temperature of 28-29°C tomorrow, so this might just be the day it happens. The date record of 28.3°C definitely looks under threat, but a first 30°C for the 13th is still in the balance. My thinking is that the 30°C mark will not be reached until Monday, but we shall have to wait and see.

Looking further ahead, the heat looks set to last in the south well into next week with an increasing chance of thunderstorms from Wednesday. I hope so as I have not heard thunder here in Tiverton since the 27th of August last year. :(

The CET for June was 16.5°C (+3.0°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 7mm up to the 10th, which is just 10% of the monthly average of 65mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We did not reach 30°C on Sunday or indeed today, Monday, so the 13th of June anomaly remains - it is in fact the only day between the 27th of May and the 17th of September not to have recorded a maximum of 30°C or greater in the UK. The high on Sunday was 28.0°C at Heathrow and St James Park and today it was 29.7°C at Teddington Bushy Park in SW London.

The forecast of thunderstorms from Wednesday evening onwards has firmed up with more central and eastern parts of England likely to see a decent display into Thursday morning, but not much expected my way, so the 10 month thunder drought here goes on. That said, these destabilisations in the middle of the atmosphere (elevated t/storms) are difficult to predict, so we might see a few sparks further west.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A maximum of 29°C was again reached on Wednesday (16th June) in and around London and up into East Anglia, so we are yet to record our first temperature of 30°C or more. The weather broke on Wednesday evening with thunderstorms moving north east across the far SE of England - this sort of set up, which is becoming more common, has acquired the name 'Kent Clipper' as most of the storms run up the English Channel and miss most of the UK. There were some fantastic pictures of shelf clouds hitting the Kent coast just before it got dark and the attached Twitter link gives a flavour:

https://twitter.com/SimonOKing/status/1 ... 9686059010

No thunder here in Tiverton - we managed a little rain to dampen the soil, but <1mm.

The CET for June was 16.7°C (+2.9°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 7mm up to the 15th, which is just 11% of the monthly average. These figures will change quite a bit as we enter a cooler and more unsettled period for the second half of the month.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A tale of two halves for the UK in the last couple of days with the SE half having plenty of rain whilst further west and north it has been dry with some sunshine and a local ground frost in places at night. An area of persistent heavy rain developed overnight Thursday into Friday (18th/19th June) and continued all day over the SE of England with London and areas to its west receiving over a month's worth of rain in a little over 24 hours. The largest totals provided by the Met Office are for the 18 hour period to 6pm on Friday (18th):

67mm at Otterbourne (Hampshire)
65mm at Dancers End (Bucks)
64mm at Drayton Parslow (Bucks)
58mm at Toddington (Bedfordshire)

The temperature on Friday afternoon in this wet area was no more than 11-13°C in a cold northerly wind, so rather chilly. Here in Tiverton and indeed all of SW England, Wales, Scotland and NW England it was bone dry with some sunshine and Plymouth reported a max of 23°C in the shelter of Dartmoor.

The attached tweet has a few maps and diagrams, but the rainfall total chart (showing places with >25mm) illustrates how persistent and slow moving the rain band was - it was right over the Southampton cricket ground all day! Surprisingly, there were no reports of significant flooding.

https://twitter.com/RoostWeather/status ... 5974024195
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has slowly dried out since the weekend and the weather has returned to be rather benign again. Today (Thurs 24th June) it has been rather cloudy and humid as a small warm sector moves south east across the UK and this has provided some sunshine and warmth to the NE of England and Eastern Scotland where the temperature has reached 24-25°C. This in turn has triggered a couple of thunderstorm cells over the high ground of Tyne & Wear and Northumberland in the middle of the afternoon and they have now drifted east into the North Sea. Nothing exiting here in Tiverton with plenty of cloud and a few light rain showers - just about enough to wet the ground. Max was just 21°C.

The forecast for the next few days is rather mixed with generally cloudy weather with a few showers and maybe something a bit heavier on Friday and Sunday. Temperatures look set to remain around average, but it will be a bit muggy.

The CET for June was 15.8°C (+1.8°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 36mm up to the 22nd, which is 56% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

I was bemoaning the lack of activity in the UK weather last time I posted, but that has certainly changed. Yesterday (Friday 25th June) did not on the surface appear to have much about it weather wise, but a weak cold front cleared the SE in the morning and it appears a convergence zone became established to the east of London in the late afternoon and sparked off a couple of very potent storms. The second cell produced localised flooding in east London (e.g. Dagenham) and also what appears to have been a tornado in Barking. It is currently being investigated, but quite a lot of structural damage occurred in three or four streets. Looking at the many videos, I cannot see any evidence of a funnel cloud or condensation, but the lowest level of the atmosphere was very dry and this may explain this observation. The videos clearly show swirling debris, but we shall have to await the outcome of the site investigation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57618651

Met Office radar loop for the two cells:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/14 ... 4271214592

Looking forward, we have an extensive area of thundery rain spreading north from France at the moment and Sunday looks a wet and miserable day for southern England. Weather warnings are in place and suggest 50-70mm through tomorrow and into Monday for those of us in the SW.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There has been much debate on UK weather forums concerning the nature of the wind event that occurred in Barking, East London on the early evening of Friday 26th June. The damage and event description initially pointed to a tornado, but numerous videos and accounts have appeared (as one would expect from such a densely populated area) that have put a different light on the matter. Video evidence shows it lasted for at least 5 minutes in the same general area, but also shows spiralling debris being lifted high into the sky. More research will be required, but this event may well have been some from of downburst rather than a tornado.

The weather has continued unsettled and yesterday a convergence line developed right along the length of southern England and about 20 miles inland and produced heavy rain showers and thunderstorms that remained in the same place for a number of hours with resultant flooding. Chard and Crewkerne in Somerset were badly hit - see BBC news story. Here in Tiverton, we did not have a drop of rain and this compares with a figure of 90mm from a private site in Chard.

https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/stat ... 0102059012

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-57649276

CET for June was 15.7°C (+1.6°C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 55mm up to the 27th, which is 84% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The generally unsettled weather has continued in the last week with temperatures close to average. The rainfall has mostly been showery with a big range of totals for the first week or so of July - from a few mm's to 50mm+ in some places. Numerous funnel clouds have been observed in the last few days and a small tornado occurred in Bedworth (Warwickshire) last Sunday (4th July).

The outlook remains unsettled with plenty of showers, although it looks like drying out by the end of next week and with an improvement in the temperatures. Hints of a heatwave at the end of the month - let's hope not on the scale of the recent Pacific NW one.

The CET for July was 17.0°C (+1.3°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 39mm up to the 7th, which is already 63% of the monthly average of 62mm.

EDIT: I forgot to add the final figures for the month of June - the CET was 15.5°C (+1.4°C) and the EWR was 60mm which is 91% of the monthly average. The Met Office summary reports that June was a little warmer, drier and sunnier than average

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/07/0 ... d-weather/

The forecast for the big game on Sunday evening at Wembley is for some showery rain and a kick-off temperature of around 17°C. The rain will suit England as we are used to it!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The showery weather has continued for the last few days, with some big rain totals in many places, but next to none in others. Over the last 5 days, TORRO has received reports of in excess of 35 funnel clouds in the UK and a waterspout over an inland lake. Some of the downpours have been very heavy with the SW of London being affected badly today (Monday 12th July) - one PWS in Hammersmith reported 101mm in the afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57805391

Relief is at hand though, with high pressure expected to build from the SW over the next few days and a large anticyclone will take up residence over the UK by the weekend. This will bring dry and sunny weather from Wednesday and increasing temperatures - we might just see our first 30°C of the summer by Sunday.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather duly turned drier and warmer in the middle of last week and we have had five days of sunny skies and hot temperatures here in Tiverton and indeed most of the UK - and it looks like continuing for the rest of this working week especially in the southern half of the UK + Eire. The heat (and clear skies) have come from a ridge of high pressure pushing NE from the Azores then developing as a discrete high pressure cell and becoming centred just to the west of Eire for the last few days. The heat is 'home grown' so to speak and not imported from the Continent, and because the days are still long and the incoming radiation still exceeds the outgoing, it gets warmer and warmer as long as the skies remain clear.

Yesterday (Sunday 18th July) was the hottest day of the year so far with 31.6°C recorded at London Heathrow and 31.3°C at St James Park, London. The national record for Northern Ireland was broken on Saturday (17th July) at the wonderfully named place of Ballywatticock - they reached 31.2°C here and this beat the old record of 30.8°C recorded at both Knockarevan on 30/6/1976 and at Shaw's Bridge (Belfast) on 12/7/1983.

The CET for July was 17.5°C (+1.6°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 55mm also up to the 17th, which is 88% of the monthly average.
Last edited by Simon Culling on Thu 22/07/2021 08:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained hot in the UK but for some, the weather went bang yesterday - Tuesday 20th July. We have a weak NW flow over the UK with the big high pressure system maintaining its position just to the west. With not a great deal of moisture available, some surprisingly potent thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon on a convergence line in eastern England with 1000's of lightning strikes and some hail recorded up to 50mm in diameter which dented cars and smashed windscreens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-57909700

The temperature maxed at 32.2°C at Heathrow yesterday and we will see similar values in the next couple of days. The heat looks to expand NW as well, so Ireland + Scotland look set to join in the fun.

Here in Tiverton we have had dry and sunny weather since last Thursday with no rain at all, and we will reach 30°C again today which is a repeat of yesterday. I am not a fan of these high temperatures (for us in the UK that is) and find it difficult to keep cool. Air-conditioning is not standard in the UK and many others also struggle with the heat. Air-conditioning for me is opening the windows when it is cooler outside than inside. q-

Looking forward, we have a couple more hot and sunny days to come before a low pressure system moves into the UK from the SW bringing humid and wet weather - the Met Office now have warnings for 100mm+ of rain over the weekend!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I see northern Ireland has broken the record max temperature again..and might do so again tomorrow
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Brian, the Northern Ireland maximum temperature record was broken again on Thursday 22nd July with a provisional figure of 31.4°C being recorded at Armagh Observatory. It was also the hottest place in the UK on this day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57932848

The hot weather is now coming to an end as a low pressure system approaches from the SW. Plenty of rain and showers to come over the weekend.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looking very thunderstormic in the English channel according to the Blitz. :smile:
JohnGaul
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There was a lot of lightning in the English Channel on Friday night and into Saturday morning, John, and this spread into southern parts of England, but thunderstorms were not widespread. Here in Tiverton I managed to see two distant lightning flashes and this was my first activity since 27th of August last year - SW England is a bit of a desert for interesting weather - unless you love rain + drizzle!

It has remained warm but the sunshine has mostly gone, except from more northern and western parts, and been replaced with showery rain - thankfully the 100m+ of rain forecast for the weekend has not yet materialised. It will gradually cool down this week with more showers from midweek, but there is a hint of another warm and dry spell into the second week of August.

One thing of concern that has been noticeable in the recent hot spell has been the surprising number of people, many young, drowning in rivers, lakes and the sea. At least 20 have perished in the last two weeks and this seems a high number. When I was a nipper, we were all taught to swim and not be frightened of the water at school and I do not think this is generally the case today. Even more worrying, I have seen a figure of over one third of the adult population are either frightened of the water or cannot swim.

The CET for July was 18.6°C (+2.7°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 59mm up to the 23rd, which is 95% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

I spoke too soon - very heavy rain developed over the south east of England (including London) during Sunday afternoon and yet more significant flooding resulted. Yet again around 100mm fell in parts of London (the East End this time) and also near Stowmarket in Suffolk. A radar derived map from a Met Office forecaster gives a taster of the rainfall involved

https://twitter.com/RoostWeather/status ... 8523156481

Flooding in London was not just on the roads, but also in quite a few homes and two large hospitals were (and continue to be) affected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57971381

The showery weather has continued into the current working week and looks set to hang around for the rest of the week. Much cooler as well.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A surprise storm warning has appeared today as a small feature is expected to deepen as it approaches the SW of the UK - it has been named Storm Evert by the Met Office. It will bring wet and windy weather into southern parts of the UK this evening (Thurs 29th July) and especially overnight and into Friday with wind gusts as strong as 75mph expected on the coasts in the far SW - Cornwall specifically. The warning criteria on the effects of storms are less strict in the summer as the trees are in full leaf and there are many more people outside and in the more rugged parts of the country. It will be interesting to see how this one develops. Video of the storms development on this Met Office Tweet:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/14 ... 5428453381

At 6pm on Thursday it is cloudy and dry here in Tiverton with a gentle southerly breeze and 16°C. The calm before the storm!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Storm Evert passed most of us by with minimal effect or disruption - I think the Met Office got a little hung up on the possible 'effects' due to it being Summer and residents of SE England being on holiday in the SW. Most of the UK revolves around London and its inhabitants and the rest of us seem to be an afterthought - gritty individuals that are used to a bit of hardship. :lol:

The strongest wind gusts were at very exposed sites such as the 77mph recorded at Needles Old Battery and the 69mph at the Isle of Scilly Airport. Here in Tiverton we had plenty of showery rain, but it was no more than breezy (39mph gust at local station). There was some disruption to yachting activity in the SW and two people were badly injured when a tree fell on them at an outdoor party in Suffolk, but it is not politically correct for me here in the UK to criticise them for being out in the wilds during a warning period. Here in the UK personal responsibility is a thing of the past - the State has assumed that responsibility for us. Also, we have had a plethora of warnings in the last few weeks ranging from heat to floods to hail, and perhaps warning fatigue is setting in - perhaps all the warnings, that end up affecting a very small number of people, are seen as crying wolf? Rant over.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-58022839

Since Friday we have continued to see plenty of showers with more funnel clouds being reported - at least 3 yesterday, Sunday. It has turned much cooler as well, and this cool and showery theme will persist for the coming week and next weekend.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The showery and rather cool weather has continued here in the UK with further heavy downpours in places. Yet more warnings are in place for heavy rain over today (Fri 6th Aug) and the coming weekend, with between 50-100mm being suggested for northern England and Scotland. There is also a thunderstorm warning for these areas.

After the weekend, next week looks to continue with the showery and cool theme, but there are tentative signs in the models of high pressure returning in the third week of the month with warmer and drier weather.

The final CET for July was 17.7°C (+1.7°C) and the final EWR was 90mm which is 145% of the monthly average.

The Met Office summary for July portrays a warmer, drier and sunnier month than normal, but there are some significant regional variations on all these elements. The month is described as the fifth warmest July in the temperature series that now extends back to 1884, but on the longer and more parochial CET series (back to 1659), it was the joint 32nd warmest and 2°C short of the 2006 record. For this July, it was the high minimums (joint second warmest) rather than the daytime highs that pushed the average up.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/08/0 ... on-record/
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

August has continued its rather cool and showery theme, although more eastern parts of England have benefited from a bit more sunshine and less showers, with the mercury approaching 25°C on a couple of recent days. We seemed to have got stuck in this generally westerly flow and this looks set to continue for the foreseeable future - we have not tapped into the very hot weather being experienced in Mediterranean countries at the moment as the winds are keeping away from the S or SE.

The CET for August was 16.2°C (+0.3°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 36mm also up to the 11th, which is 46% of the monthly average of 77mm. Here in the SW, the mean is closer to 1°C below the long term average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained rather cool and unsettled over the last week, but generally speaking, rainfall totals have been small. Nothing exiting on the weather front here in the UK, but we do have a band of rain (some heavy bursts) moving NE across the country today (Sat 21st Aug) with the prospect of some heavy showers this afternoon as the sun breaks through - will I get a thunderstorm here in Tiverton before the 27th and not go more than one year without hearing thunder? We shall see.

Much talk on the news about climate change and the recent IPCC report, but we have missed all the heat this summer with nothing near record breaking figures for the UK. However, overall, the summer is still running a little warmer than average.

The CET for August was 16.3°C (+0.4°C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 41mm also up to the 19th, which is 54% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The Shipping Forecast is 160 years old this week and is believed to be the longest running continuous weather forecast that has provided information and weather warnings to generations of mariners.

https://twitter.com/MCA_media/status/14 ... 2931430432

The wikipedia entry has a good history of this service and the events surrounding its origin:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shipping_Forecast

It is still broadcast on long wave and I remember listening to it as a boy to get the 15 or so pressure readings from the weather reports to add to a similar number I could get from VOLMET, to help me get an idea of the pressure pattern over the UK - no internet available in those days! I can still remember from heart the list of sea areas that interested me - Humber, Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth, Biscay............. Sometimes the area SE Iceland would have 'Hurricane strength 12 wind warnings and conditions such as "moderate to severe icing".
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I used to do the same here, draw isobar maps, from our light house readings etc :)
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