End of June cold shot.

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Bradley
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Sun 27/06/2021 10:49 GFS 2606 18Z just projected 516 to 518 thickness over Dunedin with moisture, -8c at 850 hPa with a gusting 100 km SW tomorrow night. That's an impressive trough. Probably not T-shirt weather.
And now GFS has 6cm of snow for Christchurch but nothing at all for West Melton, very coastal this event…
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Metservice gone loopy? Christchurch regional forecast mentioning snow 300m Monday evening, which is interesting in itself. To me it's clear that the coldest conditions for coastal Canterbury are Tuesday morning, yet MS have snow 500m during that time.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Model guidance is still sticking to a very cold SW airflow for Tuesday morning and if anything seems to look abit more promising to see a snow flurrie in the city early hours Tuesday. Certainly very cold in the low and mid levels with the 850mb at -7 and a 700mb at close to -20!

The upper trough moving over tomorrow might see a risk of heavy showers and hail moving through Canterbury ' monday morning' before easing off afternoon.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I've noticed that MS have put thunderstorms into the mix for tomorrows 'blast'' ?
Might get 'Thundersnow" somewhere? 8-o o_O
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Sea level snow and -2.1c at 3pm on Macquarie Island. 4c degrees below model 18z projections at that time. App temp was around -16c. This is a top shelf cold shot at 54° South.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Doesn't look like very good weather for sunbathing down there, judging by that photo >_<
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sun 27/06/2021 19:07 Doesn't look like very good weather for sunbathing down there, judging by that photo >_<
Oh why not john? I thought it looked like bbq weather. Maybe by time it reaches here it will be warm enough to sunbath 8)
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sun 27/06/2021 17:48 I've noticed that MS have put thunderstorms into the mix for tomorrows 'blast'' ?
Might get 'Thundersnow" somewhere? 8-o o_O
We've mentioned the thunder potential earlier in the thread, I'm surprised at the moderate risk but not surprised at there being any risk due to the uppers involved. This is going to be interesting.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Interesting to see how this event pans out out.
If in summer, would be good thunder event, with a possible separate thread topic for this forum as there is enhancement from a ULT moving over as well. In July 1993, I think, we had a summery type of thunderstorm move over which I recorded from my roof in Selwyn Street in Christchurch.
Aaron may have a copy?
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Rain just starting here in Rakaia after a strong gust of wind.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Thunderstorms and hail at Thornbury now
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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This mornings GFS looks very interesting for christchurch between 3am and 9am tomorrow morning.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Just started to snow here just out of Gore and settling straight away even after a night of heavy sleet and rain showers
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Plenty of mid level moisture above the surface polar trough at 50° South.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

The 12z run gfs is looking interesting this morning as snowchaser pointed out. Snow flurries in city looks possible and certainly hasn't backed away as you would normally see 24 hrs out
Last edited by mikestormchaser on Mon 28/06/2021 07:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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mikestormchaser wrote: Mon 28/06/2021 07:31 The 12z run gfs is looking interesting this morning as snowchaser pointed out. Certainly hasn't backed away as you would normally see 24 hrs out
If anything it's intensifying.. 519thk with -8 850mb temps. Decent moisture about too. That has sea level snow showers written all over it
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TonyT
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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the midnight ensemble run has 12 members out of 50 putting snow on the ground tomorrow in Christchurch, so 24% risk, the highest for about a week.

If its going to happen it will be 4-9am tomorrow morning, as that's when the greatest chance of a spread from Banks Peninsula westwards occurs. The morning commute from Port Hills suburbs could be interesting, but everyone else will shrug their shoulders.

Quite a pasting for Southland and Otago in the next 36 hours. Looks like Banks Peninsula will see 5-10cm to very low levels.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Very little going on this morning driving through and north out of town, windy but 8-10C. See what this afternoon through tomorrow morning brings.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Razor »

Certainly a mundane garden variety cloudy change this morning. Nothing to scare the horses
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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TonyT wrote: Mon 28/06/2021 07:58 the midnight ensemble run has 12 members out of 50 putting snow on the ground tomorrow in Christchurch, so 24% risk, the highest for about a week.

If its going to happen it will be 4-9am tomorrow morning, as that's when the greatest chance of a spread from Banks Peninsula westwards occurs. The morning commute from Port Hills suburbs could be interesting, but everyone else will shrug their shoulders.

Quite a pasting for Southland and Otago in the next 36 hours. Looks like Banks Peninsula will see 5-10cm to very low levels.
IMHO it's looking rather tasty tomorrow morning for very low snow showers. Potentially 1-3cm to sea level with heavy showers... between 3am and 9am. I've been saying that for about 3 days now. Crazy times that's for sure.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Just had a heavy shower with sleet in Timaru, Clearing from the south now. I'd say that will be it for us in South Canterbury from this event.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by tich »

Just some light rain earlier this morning in Akaroa. No snow yet on hills, but certainly feels cold.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by kiwisk8er »

Snow showers passing through Dunedin and Mosgiel, with patches of blue sky in between. Saw a couple of snow flakes at 20 m ASL during one of them. Snow is at least halfway down Maungatua this morning.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

The models on 18z run has even bit of moisture inland now. Not much at all but there was nothing there yesterday.

I'm thinking the models are either over estimating the precip on the coast and chch city may not see anything at all. Or it's underestimating how far inland it might go which will then put say a dusting on the ground in chch and surrounding areas. I'm thinking model guidance to me is suggesting a 50/50 call
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Latest MS warnings update has a heavy snow watch for Banks Peninsula and mention of snow to 200m around chch area. Yesterday they were saying 500m.
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