End of June cold shot.

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talbotmj15
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End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Just throwing this out there. Its been showing for a week or so. Some seriously cold air is making its way over Canterbury at the end of the month. Latest GFS tonight pointing to a significant sea level event. Given we are along way out im not suggesting that will happen. But all the data suggests something big is brewing. This thread is to help if this event comes to pass. Both EC and GFS are on board. Most other models also showing something happening too.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

500mb temps of 522thk right over Canterbury.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, does look cold for next WE. Plenty of wood in the woodshed.
As they say, the coldest weather usually occurs after the shortest day or longest night, which ever you prefer.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

GFS continues to model some crazy cold numbers. Numbers not seen since the winters of 2011/12. Latest GFS run has THK levels of 518 over Canterbury and -8 850mb temps... with decent moisture about. At this early stage it has sea level snow showers written all over it.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

image.png
GFS showing some serious cold air.
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Last edited by talbotmj15 on Sun 20/06/2021 16:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

ImageImage
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EC Control runs pointing to a serious evection event. Still 9 days out But both GFS and EC agree. Also most other major models are in agreement. This event could be a major. THK levels now down to 518thk over Chch city. Numbers we havent seen for some years.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

About time we had a snowy event, haven't had one for years, but then who wants a snowy event like the ones we have had in Canterbury over the last 30 years on top of the recent flooding in the region. [-X
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Razor »

I wouldn't be getting excited so far out. Most of these end up a critical SW flow and head out to sea anyway
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Razor wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 17:48 I wouldn't be getting excited so far out. Most of these end up a critical SW flow and head out to sea anyway
Yep it’s already becoming less and less severe each model run, EC has 2mm and 6C for Christchurch at the moment with GFS only slightly colder
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Razor wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 17:48 I wouldn't be getting excited so far out. Most of these end up a critical SW flow and head out to sea anyway
I do tend to agree. Interesting though the models are all in cohesion that something is coming. What exactly is coming is above my pay grade. CT or Tony may be better placed.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by TonyT »

talbotmj15 wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 18:28
Razor wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 17:48 I wouldn't be getting excited so far out. Most of these end up a critical SW flow and head out to sea anyway
What exactly is coming is above my pay grade. CT or Tony may be better placed.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Dean. »

Taking a break from the weekly video chats Tony?
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by TonyT »

Dean. wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 18:56 Taking a break from the weekly video chats Tony?
No, still going twice a week. But I got hacked a while back and had to create a new Blue Skies Weather facebook page. Lost thousands of followers, including yourself I would guess.

https://www.facebook.com/BlueSkiesWeather2.0
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by jamie »

Oh I wondered what happened to your chats Tony. Ill go looking for your new page.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

TonyT wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 19:05
Dean. wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 18:56 Taking a break from the weekly video chats Tony?
No, still going twice a week. But I got hacked a while back and had to create a new Blue Skies Weather facebook page. Lost thousands of followers, including yourself I would guess.

https://www.facebook.com/BlueSkiesWeather2.0
Didn't relise that Tony. Unfortunate about the hacking. Ill find your new Facebook page and subscribe.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I'm not on Facebook, not into this social media thing but my wife is.
Regarding the cold outbreak, I think it might be a fizzer with a rather intense impending anticyclone moving in later next week.
Mild weather preceding it but then could be rather cold and frosty when the anticyclone moves over?
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sun 20/06/2021 23:34 I'm not on Facebook, not into this social media thing but my wife is.
Regarding the cold outbreak, I think it might be a fizzer with a rather intense impending anticyclone moving in later next week.
Mild weather preceding it but then could be rather cold and frosty when the anticyclone moves over?
I would agree john! The anticycone moving in would be the game changer.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Awhituobs »

NIWA posted today that june so far has been record breaking warmth
so will need more than only a couple of days of below normal temperatures to stop it ending up being the warmest or nearly the warmest june on record for NZ? (as there is the NW warm flow to arrive yet from thursday)
so will be interesting to see if the brief cold snaps will stop the record from occuring
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 21/06/2021 19:15 Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
Hi CT. What do you mean? Fracture the polar jet? What are the possible outcomes if this happens?
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Latest EC run still showing a supercold system with 520thk levels to Canterbury. Thats a Snow to Chch City. Long way off still but still good to see. Fingers crossed the moisture ramps up.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

talbotmj15 wrote: Mon 21/06/2021 21:19
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 21/06/2021 19:15 Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
Hi CT. What do you mean? Fracture the polar jet? What are the possible outcomes if this happens?
The strongest upper troughs fracture the polar jet. This allows the cold wave to have a more south to north meridional flow. UK,CMC & Icon are all fracturing the Jet over the southern Tasman on this mornings 12z runs at 144 hours, others more east. Any model past 100 hours shouldn't be taken too seriously, the most popular models are currently running at 35% to 50% wrong at 192 hours.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come :smile:
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Re: End of June cold shot.

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Tue 22/06/2021 10:52 GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come :smile:
Definite cold advection shown in that map, should enhance any shower activity if it verifies.
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Re: End of June cold shot.

Unread post by talbotmj15 »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Tue 22/06/2021 10:52 GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come :smile:
Definite good polar system. I note the change in the shape of the High over the tasman. Its started the transition from West - East to North - South. This is always a good sign from my experience as this allows the low to venture further into the mid latitudes bring colder air with it. I fear this system will either ramp up or go bust. Signs are looking good though
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