End of June cold shot.
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
End of June cold shot.
Just throwing this out there. Its been showing for a week or so. Some seriously cold air is making its way over Canterbury at the end of the month. Latest GFS tonight pointing to a significant sea level event. Given we are along way out im not suggesting that will happen. But all the data suggests something big is brewing. This thread is to help if this event comes to pass. Both EC and GFS are on board. Most other models also showing something happening too.
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
500mb temps of 522thk right over Canterbury.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 18485
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Yes, does look cold for next WE. Plenty of wood in the woodshed.
As they say, the coldest weather usually occurs after the shortest day or longest night, which ever you prefer.
As they say, the coldest weather usually occurs after the shortest day or longest night, which ever you prefer.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
GFS continues to model some crazy cold numbers. Numbers not seen since the winters of 2011/12. Latest GFS run has THK levels of 518 over Canterbury and -8 850mb temps... with decent moisture about. At this early stage it has sea level snow showers written all over it.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
GFS showing some serious cold air.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by talbotmj15 on Sun 20/06/2021 16:48, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
EC Control runs pointing to a serious evection event. Still 9 days out But both GFS and EC agree. Also most other major models are in agreement. This event could be a major. THK levels now down to 518thk over Chch city. Numbers we havent seen for some years.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 18485
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
About time we had a snowy event, haven't had one for years, but then who wants a snowy event like the ones we have had in Canterbury over the last 30 years on top of the recent flooding in the region.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5120
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 717 times
- Been thanked: 921 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
I wouldn't be getting excited so far out. Most of these end up a critical SW flow and head out to sea anyway
Christchurch Rocks
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 142 times
- Been thanked: 269 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Yep it’s already becoming less and less severe each model run, EC has 2mm and 6C for Christchurch at the moment with GFS only slightly colder
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
I do tend to agree. Interesting though the models are all in cohesion that something is coming. What exactly is coming is above my pay grade. CT or Tony may be better placed.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2878
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 352 times
- Been thanked: 1146 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
FML, I'm good, but I'm not that good!talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Sun 20/06/2021 18:28What exactly is coming is above my pay grade. CT or Tony may be better placed.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2878
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 352 times
- Been thanked: 1146 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
No, still going twice a week. But I got hacked a while back and had to create a new Blue Skies Weather facebook page. Lost thousands of followers, including yourself I would guess.
https://www.facebook.com/BlueSkiesWeather2.0
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Re: End of June cold shot.
Oh I wondered what happened to your chats Tony. Ill go looking for your new page.
-
- Posts: 2707
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Didn't relise that Tony. Unfortunate about the hacking. Ill find your new Facebook page and subscribe.TonyT wrote: ↑Sun 20/06/2021 19:05No, still going twice a week. But I got hacked a while back and had to create a new Blue Skies Weather facebook page. Lost thousands of followers, including yourself I would guess.
https://www.facebook.com/BlueSkiesWeather2.0
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
-
- Posts: 18485
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
I'm not on Facebook, not into this social media thing but my wife is.
Regarding the cold outbreak, I think it might be a fizzer with a rather intense impending anticyclone moving in later next week.
Mild weather preceding it but then could be rather cold and frosty when the anticyclone moves over?
Regarding the cold outbreak, I think it might be a fizzer with a rather intense impending anticyclone moving in later next week.
Mild weather preceding it but then could be rather cold and frosty when the anticyclone moves over?
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 2707
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
I would agree john! The anticycone moving in would be the game changer.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 20/06/2021 23:34 I'm not on Facebook, not into this social media thing but my wife is.
Regarding the cold outbreak, I think it might be a fizzer with a rather intense impending anticyclone moving in later next week.
Mild weather preceding it but then could be rather cold and frosty when the anticyclone moves over?
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2256
- Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
- Location: Waiuku
- Has thanked: 706 times
- Been thanked: 556 times
- Contact:
Re: End of June cold shot.
NIWA posted today that june so far has been record breaking warmth
so will need more than only a couple of days of below normal temperatures to stop it ending up being the warmest or nearly the warmest june on record for NZ? (as there is the NW warm flow to arrive yet from thursday)
so will be interesting to see if the brief cold snaps will stop the record from occuring
so will need more than only a couple of days of below normal temperatures to stop it ending up being the warmest or nearly the warmest june on record for NZ? (as there is the NW warm flow to arrive yet from thursday)
so will be interesting to see if the brief cold snaps will stop the record from occuring
Brian Hamilton
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/grahamsbeach.htm
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Hi CT. What do you mean? Fracture the polar jet? What are the possible outcomes if this happens?Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 21/06/2021 19:15 Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Latest EC run still showing a supercold system with 520thk levels to Canterbury. Thats a Snow to Chch City. Long way off still but still good to see. Fingers crossed the moisture ramps up.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
The strongest upper troughs fracture the polar jet. This allows the cold wave to have a more south to north meridional flow. UK,CMC & Icon are all fracturing the Jet over the southern Tasman on this mornings 12z runs at 144 hours, others more east. Any model past 100 hours shouldn't be taken too seriously, the most popular models are currently running at 35% to 50% wrong at 192 hours.talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Mon 21/06/2021 21:19Hi CT. What do you mean? Fracture the polar jet? What are the possible outcomes if this happens?Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 21/06/2021 19:15 Today's UK 00Z run launching a decent long wave trough at 144 hours south of Tasmania. If it verifies, that upper low could fracture the polar jet as it moves towards NZ.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2878
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 352 times
- Been thanked: 1146 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Definite cold advection shown in that map, should enhance any shower activity if it verifies.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 22/06/2021 10:52 GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Re: End of June cold shot.
Definite good polar system. I note the change in the shape of the High over the tasman. Its started the transition from West - East to North - South. This is always a good sign from my experience as this allows the low to venture further into the mid latitudes bring colder air with it. I fear this system will either ramp up or go bust. Signs are looking good thoughCyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 22/06/2021 10:52 GFS 2106 18Z jumps on the UK, Icon, CMC bandwagon with the polar jet forced north by the upper trough allowing the meridional flowing polar surge. Moisture at 700 hPa with snow flurries in Christchurch at around 150 hours from now . Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come