General July Weather

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spwill
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Some thunder heard in the west a little earlier, just a few moderate showers here.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

So Metservice Nowcasted our thunderstorm last night. Packed a few fast moving heavy/windy squall lines as it came through.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Surprisingly wet this morning 10-20mm in parts of Chch especially in the areas towards the SW end of the Port Hills. Forecast was for a few morning showers, in reality we got about 3 -4 hours of widespread rain
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Cantab03 »

Razor wrote: Tue 27/07/2021 11:29 Surprisingly wet this morning 10-20mm in parts of Chch especially in the areas towards the SW end of the Port Hills. Forecast was for a few morning showers, in reality we got about 3 -4 hours of widespread rain
Just 5mm here locally. Radar definitely had variance on it this morning though!
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

A classic strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole signature is developing in our part of the world. Warmer water off Indonesia and a cold Australian bight. Looks like the years of 2010 & 2016. I had around 300mm of rain in both of these years from August until the end of September with higher levels of equatorial moisture fueling Tasman cyclonic gyres. This set up spawned the famous South Australia tornado outbreak in late September 2016 which took out the whole state power grid. Volatile times ahead.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

We had 8.5mm of rain overnight, easing away this morning with it becoming fine and sunny from noon.
Mild day today with it getting up to 14.5C.
Cooling down this evening with a frost likely in the morning.
I see that there were a few lightning hits around the Foveaux Strait area this evening.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

the warmth above normal of areas the worlds oceans is amazing
so much for some saying this year was going to the coldest in decades (other thread)..that has not aged well lol
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by David »

Up to 88mm for the month, making it the wettest month this year. But the average for me is 136mm, so it will end up the 5th drier than average month in a row...
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TonyT
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 09:30 the warmth above normal of areas the worlds oceans is amazing
so much for some saying this year was going to the coldest in decades (other thread)..that has not aged well lol
Meanwhile, on the other side of the hemisphere, in Brazil
Slide07(124).jpg
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Bradley
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 11:04
Awhituobs wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 09:30 the warmth above normal of areas the worlds oceans is amazing
so much for some saying this year was going to the coldest in decades (other thread)..that has not aged well lol
Meanwhile, on the other side of the hemisphere, in Brazil
Slide07(124).jpg
I must be looking at the wrong models because both EC and GFS show absolutely nothing out of the ordinary for Brazil next week up to Friday?
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TonyT
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 11:26
TonyT wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 11:04

Meanwhile, on the other side of the hemisphere, in Brazil
Slide07(124).jpg
I must be looking at the wrong models because both EC and GFS show absolutely nothing out of the ordinary for Brazil next week up to Friday?
It was tweeted on 24th July, progging for the period 29th to 1st. Current EC shows the 29th as 10-14deg below normal for the 29th.
Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 2.58.41 PM.png
ecmwf-deterministic-samer-t2m_c_anom-7581600.png
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Cyclone Tracy
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 09:30 the warmth above normal of areas the worlds oceans is amazing
so much for some saying this year was going to the coldest in decades (other thread)..that has not aged well lol
NASA > GISS currently showing it's the coolest year globally since 2014 at 0.16c above the 1991-2020 mean or 0.79c above the 1951-1980 to 30 June. So currently the coolest for 7 years but a long way to go either way for 2021's data. It would need to drop from 0.79 to 0.53 above the 1951-1980 ave in the next 6 months to be the coldest year in decades (since 2001).
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 15:02
Bradley wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 11:26

I must be looking at the wrong models because both EC and GFS show absolutely nothing out of the ordinary for Brazil next week up to Friday?
It was tweeted on 24th July, progging for the period 29th to 1st. Current EC shows the 29th as 10-14deg below normal for the 29th.
Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 2.58.41 PM.pngecmwf-deterministic-samer-t2m_c_anom-7581600.png
Right I see now, I thought they tweeted that out this week, yes the 29th looks ridiculously cold by Brazil standards!
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

500mb streamer supported by an overhead-ish lobe of the stratospheric vortex and also a meridional polar jet merging with the subtropical version. Just the 500mb modelling from GFS here:
2021-07-28 16_43_32-weather model gfs model - southern hemisphere - height_temp. 500 hpa [base + 6] .png
Imagine if we got that :lol:

Back on track with NZ weather, superb day in Kaikoura - little wind and mild temperatures. Perfect.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

i can't see the rest of the year being colder than normal
for the globe as a whole seeing the large areas of ocean above normal temperatures
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

After a frost, the day was fine for a start but become cloudy and overcast as a southerly rolled in from early afternoon with low cloud cover keeping temperatures quite cool for the day. 12.2C before the southerly change.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

TonyT wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 11:04

Meanwhile, on the other side of the hemisphere, in Brazil
Slide07(124).jpg
Could be like the freeze that Texas had last winter? 0_o
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Partly cloudy up to 17C here today, some big Tcu in our skies now and isolated showers forming.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 17:35 i can't see the rest of the year being colder than normal
for the globe as a whole seeing the large areas of ocean above normal temperatures
Looks like we are into the spring westerlies quite early this year. That is climate change.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Thu 29/07/2021 18:04
Awhituobs wrote: Wed 28/07/2021 17:35 i can't see the rest of the year being colder than normal
for the globe as a whole seeing the large areas of ocean above normal temperatures
Looks like we are into the spring westerlies quite early this year. That is climate change.
The week of westerlies coming up is not the start of the spring westerlies. It will be followed by alternating high and low pressure systems. There is very little westerly component in the six week guidance after next week/weekend.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Niwa are on La Nina watch now
and are predicting more westerlies for early spring
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

After another frost this morning, a fine day eventuated with some thin high cloud to the west. Light winds.
Today's maximum was 11.2C.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Another frost this morning resulting in a fine sunny day with some scattered high cloud to the west, however areas of fog to the east along coastal areas around Timaru keeping temperatures rather cool there. 10.3C here for today.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Fine day despite threatening low cloud trying to move in from the SE.
13.3C for today.
Light winds calm this evening with some fog around.
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Re: General July Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

July 2021 stats locally –

Mean daily temp = 11.5c (-0.3 2018/20 average)
Rainfall = 77.6mm (-46mm 2001/2020 average)
Prevailing wind WSW
2 thunder days.
Humidity 82.4% (-2.7% average) Record lowest humidity for July

YTD
Daily temp 16.89c , -0.17c average (2018/2020)
Rainfall 432mm , -268mm average (2001/2020)
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