NZ Weather Forum

First 2 weeks of July are running 1.0C below normal here. And 3.6C lower than June! No wonder it's felt so cold (to me anyway)

that 1c below normal will get pegged back over the coming week with warmer wind flows
still likely to end up below normal
but I see some parts of the south island are running above normal to date
so NZ as a whole might end up with july being around normal?

Looking very wet for northern Westland, Buller, Golden Bay and Tasman on Friday through Saturday.

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 14/07/2021 11:17 Looking very wet for northern Westland, Buller, Golden Bay and Tasman on Friday through Saturday.

Yes, ACCESS model is spitting out 700mm+... surely not!

Well thats it .Grass min last night -0.9C .Screen min 0.8C.Next few nights should be warmer.Ground absolutely saturated. Trying to find ways of accessing my screen. While foot print in front is a sea of mud .Need duck boards as we had in instrument enclosure at Met Service sites

After a very heavy frost, a fine day eventuated but later in the afternoon, some high cloud started to move in from the west.
9.8C for today with a light NE this afternoon.

Only 15mm or so showing for here on GFS over the weekend. With only 29mm month to date, looking like another drier then average month is on the cards...

Possible thunder here later Sunday into Monday for some hit/miss heavy showers, see what it looks like on the day.

Another active looking system from mid next week

Eyes on the 21st onwards after tomorrow-this weekend's rain event, it could change but the GFS ensembles are launching something very cold at us. More comments in the strat thread as that looks to be driving it.

Chris W wrote: ↑Thu 15/07/2021 10:23 Eyes on the 21st onwards after tomorrow-this weekend's rain event, it could change but the GFS ensembles are launching something very cold at us. More comments in the strat thread as that looks to be driving it.

Gfs is hinting of a significant surface polar trough brewing around the 23rd combined with a tasman low to the west.

If this verifies close to the time Canterbury could well see a major snow event.

Grey overcast day with drizzle at times, especially this morning and this evening. 1.5mm for today.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Thu 15/07/2021 11:47

Chris W wrote: ↑Thu 15/07/2021 10:23 Eyes on the 21st onwards after tomorrow-this weekend's rain event, it could change but the GFS ensembles are launching something very cold at us. More comments in the strat thread as that looks to be driving it.

Gfs is hinting of a significant surface polar trough brewing around the 23rd combined with a tasman low to the west.

If this verifies close to the time Canterbury could well see a major snow event.

And as quick as that GFS flip flops on that idea

nice to have warmer nights and days
10c minimum last night and 16.5c max yesterday

16C in Hagley with barely any wind late this arvo, polar opposite to Buller right now.

This morning's model runs are all consistently showing 120km to 130km/h at 850 hPa across Auckland between 2 & 3pm. Some of these gusts will mix to the surface. A truck on the Harbour bridge was taken out in September last year with a 127km/h gust, which didn't end well for the bridges structure.

only at 11:30 am had the harbour forecast mentioned squalls to 50 kts
and yet this has been in the models for 3 days now
its only nowcasting
edit..i see that is for sunday..my bad

Manakau Heads just clocked 130 km/h

I am a bit sheltered from the northerly wind here
so only 30 kts here max
but I can see the wind change to the NW on the rain radar coming in now..narrow squall line...we should get a good blast then

Seems like ages since we got a good heavy rain... Just 10mm of light to moderate rain here so far. Wind has dropped a lot now it seems

wind picking up here now
(i.e so as the wind drops off in land it picks up here on the coast..i.e the pressure switches, as it turns more NW)
I see gusts to 71 kts at the signal station now

David wrote: ↑Sat 17/07/2021 13:56 Seems like ages since we got a good heavy rain... Just 10mm of light to moderate rain here so far. Wind has dropped a lot now it seems

… agree, seems like every time we have a decent rainfall outlook with promising looking models, the rainfall radar image just drops apart on the approach to Auckland … squall line coming in now, but the heavy rain will be short-lived …

103kmh gusts here with the squall line frontal clearance
16mm of nice warm rain

Awhituobs wrote:103kmh gusts here with the squall line frontal clearance
16mm of nice warm rain

Nice. 85 here.


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Quite moist unstable air over the upper North Island today/tomorrow, see what can happen along any frontal line, some thunderstorm acitivity showing over the Tasman currently.

18.7C I have currently, which is a record for July for me
make that 18.9 we got to