7-10th July low level snow?

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Thu 01/07/2021 09:01

Modelz seem fairly consistent at the moment for another cold snow event. Looks more inland than coastal.

Latest EC has snow to sea level and GFS has similar.

Still a week away but has been in models for about a week now. What are your thoughts?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 01/07/2021 09:17

talbotmj15 wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:01 What are your thoughts?

Only a fool trusts computer models, and only a fool ignores them.

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Thu 01/07/2021 09:28

TonyT wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:17
talbotmj15 wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:01 What are your thoughts?
Only a fool trusts computer models, and only a fool ignores them.

Im more confused by the answer than the question Tony. Very clever. From that i take it your saying its a done deal and you have locked it in.

15cm to chch CBD?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 01/07/2021 09:40

talbotmj15 wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:28
TonyT wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:17

Only a fool trusts computer models, and only a fool ignores them.
Im more confused by the answer than the question Tony. Very clever. From that i take it your saying its a done deal and you have locked it in. 15cm to chch CBD?

What I'm saying is my thoughts are currently neutral. The model guidance is noted, but not yet trusted. We need to get closer to the event to be able to tie down what might and might not happen, and how likely various scenarios are. As of this morning's EC ensemble run, only 1/50 member brings snow to Christchurch on the Thursday, and 4/50 on the Friday. I think England winning the Euros is a better bet!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 01/07/2021 11:10

TonyT wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:40

What I'm saying is my thoughts are currently neutral. The model guidance is noted, but not yet trusted.I think England winning the Euros is a better bet!

Fantastic analysis this far out Tony.

Should be the start of some good frosts tonight matt.

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Thu 01/07/2021 18:51

mikestormchaser wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 11:10
TonyT wrote: Thu 01/07/2021 09:40

What I'm saying is my thoughts are currently neutral. The model guidance is noted, but not yet trusted.I think England winning the Euros is a better bet!
Fantastic analysis this far out Tony.

Should be the start of some good frosts tonight matt.

You reckon? Im not convinced about the big frosts. EC and GFS both show like 1deg? EC shows sunday morning -2 but thats the best i can see for oxford.

I need -2 to fire up my snowmaker.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 02/07/2021 11:18

Latest GFS run looks interesting....lets see what the projections are looking like in a day or two, but my layperson's level of confidence is slowly rising in some action weather for Tuesday/ Wednesday

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 02/07/2021 11:50

Razor wrote: Fri 02/07/2021 11:18 Latest GFS run looks interesting....lets see what the projections are looking like in a day or two, but my layperson's level of confidence is slowly rising in some action weather for Tuesday/ Wednesday

Yes hints of possible evaporative cooling affect over Canterbury mid week. One to watch!

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Fri 02/07/2021 18:48

Ol Metservice already mentioning snow to inland southern NZ on their severe weather outlook

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 03/07/2021 20:02

getting the distinct impression that we'll just about be archiving this thread soon

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sun 04/07/2021 12:48

See Metservice forecasting low level snow to 100 meters this coming Tuesday

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Mon 05/07/2021 11:02

GFS still holding low level snow. EC also showing it but not to same extent. Timing looks key to me. I think 3 scenarios are on the table. The rain comes first and cold too late. 2nd cold air arrives mid rain event. 3rd cold arrives just before rain begins.

Interesting one to watch.

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7-10th July low level snow?

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