General August Weather

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matttbs
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General August Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

First week of August looks to be dominated by the westerlies with a brief southerly flick for the south around the 3rd. Nothing exciting for the first week of the month.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

matttbs wrote: Thu 29/07/2021 12:04 First week of August looks to be dominated by the westerlies with a brief southerly flick for the south around the 3rd. Nothing exciting for the first week of the month.
GFS certainly begs to differ with that statement this morning- Monday looks interesting followed by a complex trough mid week. Warm advection potential anyone?
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

GFS does seem to be returning the polar vortex to us more quickly than it was a few days ago with one or two chilly fronts next week, but for colder/more energetic weather and snow potential I'd still be looking beyond the first week. EC seems to potentially agree at least up to T+240, looking at 500mb at least.

Looks a mobile westerly to later southwesterly pattern, not seeing slow-moving or blocking highs necessarily. Not sure how the other factors such as IOD/La Nina/MJO are playing into it.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by David »

wow - sudden brief downpour here... wasn't expecting any rain at all
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Cloudy and overcast day here with calm conditions. Rain from afternoon with 3.2mm falling. 10.3C for today.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Chris W wrote: Fri 30/07/2021 11:46 Looks a mobile westerly to later southwesterly pattern, not seeing slow-moving or blocking highs necessarily. Not sure how the other factors such as IOD/La Nina/MJO are playing into it.
Still showing a westerly pattern, so far, for this month. No anticyclones in the Aussie Bight to bring up cold southerly from the Antarctic. 0_o
Interesting to see how many frosts we will get this month here in Raukapuka as compared to July?
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

tomorrow looks nasty for very gusty SW gales across the upper north island
its the start of a stormy week (which is very typical for the first week of August)
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Cold upper levels Thursday and Friday, thundery here later in week.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Cold this morning. Looks like snow on the way 3C at 0900.Western horizon looking threatening.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by David »

A few heavy showers around this afternoon, my station picked up 4mm in a few minutes a bit earlier
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Small convergence and a moderate shower over rolleston just now.
Not really surprised had of had a look at the models earlier. And a S- NE influence. DP quite high at the surface looking at the 9pm chch sounding to
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I see that the NE has been quite keen over Christchurch over the last coupla days whereas it has been overcast with clagg here and hardly any wind.
Interesting convergence line on the radar from 10:30pm.
Grey dome skies here today with a maximum of 9.8C. and coming onto light rain this evening with a bit of a southerly breeze.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

damaging severe gales have caused widespread power cuts in my area
139kmh max I recorded :)
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

20mm here so far, reports of surface ponding on a few commutes
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Nev »

Certainly blowing out here this morning. Here's a few gusts observed earlier before the power went off here after 5am:

Gusts km/h
117 .. Bean Rock
115 .. Tiritiri Lighthouse
111 .. Auckland Harbour Bridge
109 .. Whangaparaoa Peninsula
109 .. Passage Rock
107 .. Auckland Aero
100 .. Whenuapai Aero
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Blowing hard with surface water on SH1 coming north out of Chch today, but the northern motorway drained very well. Fairly wild out there.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

for some reason the windspeed has not been updating at the Manukau heads signal station :(
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I see the shipping containers are blown over again at Wiri
you would think they might have learnt a lesson?
(pictures show they were stacked 8 high)
Wiri is very exposed to winds off the Harbour
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Are MS on the hard stuff this morning? ChCh for Sunday...
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Thickness levels indicate snow on Sunday in Southland from GFS
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

Was certainly blowing a gale here in the early hours this morning. Anyone know what the wind speeds were this morning for Bombay? Was strong enough to take out our fence
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote: Tue 03/08/2021 10:13 Are MS on the hard stuff this morning? ChCh for Sunday...
Looking at the 12Z ECMWF ensemble, 12 of the 50 runs (24%) show snow for Christchurch at some point between Sunday and Tuesday. Very coastal, more a Banks Peninsula thing I suspect.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

An entertaining run by Access G this morning. Duel upper tropospheric vortex's in the mid latitudes from the mothership over the Antarctic continent on Sunday. These types of upper cut off lows in August puts snow on the ground where it normally doesn't fall.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Gee the latest GFS update has jumped well and truly on board with both Tony's and CT's comments. Be interesting to watch the model runs in the coming days
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

Razor wrote: Tue 03/08/2021 11:23 Gee the latest GFS update has jumped well and truly on board with both Tony's and CT's comments. Be interesting to watch the model runs in the coming days
Noticed the change on the last few runs since yesterday, each run putting more and more moisture and colder air. Fingers crossed because I’m due to do a week at Cardrona from this Saturday 😅
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