La Nina Round 2

[Chris W]

NIWA were talking up a potential La Nina repeat on Twitter yesterday, and NOAA/BOM seem to indicate potential through later summer:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

[TonyT]

Its already happening and has been signalled for quite a few months (since late summer).

[Cyclone Tracy]

0.6c SST drop in July for Nino 3.4. The cold upwelling at 55m is stronger than last year at the same time around 100W to 140W.

[wembley]

A bit odd, since we have been told that La Nina was on the way out (until now that is).

[Awhituobs]

it was
and it had all gone back to neutral conditions (but with lingering effects)
but now its starting to re build...instead of either staying neutral or swinging to El Nino
I would say that we will see a very strong El Nino to follow in a couple of years, coinciding with the solar sun spot cycle

[Cyclone Tracy]

Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.

[TonyT]

Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.

Doesn't matter. Huey knows.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The La Nina threshold being breached is certainly a more favoured scenario now across most agencies. NOAA, going for a strong event in November / December

[Chris W]

Well, seems like we're there now with a north-easterly pattern setting up.

[Cyclone Tracy]

A significant cold water upwelling from 100m below the surface in October is making this look like a stronger La Nina than last year at the moment.

[Cyclone Tracy]

NOAA going for a Super La Nina in December to rival the 1973 event.

[Awhituobs]

maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?

[Cyclone Tracy]

There were 9 South Pacific cyclones between 1 Nov 1973 to 31 Jan 1974, 3 of those were the Coral sea. The current early sea surface temperatures would support a repeat performance if MJO plays its part.

[TonyT]

maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?

3rd week of November is a possibility.

[Chris Raine]

I worked for New Zealand Met Service at Kelburn in the forecast room in 1973 -1974.Was a busy time with the South Pacific tropical cyclones.Plotting weather maps with winds mean speeds above 100 knots before the storms destroyed the radio masts.