NZ Weather Forum

NIWA were talking up a potential La Nina repeat on Twitter yesterday, and NOAA/BOM seem to indicate potential through later summer:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

Its already happening and has been signalled for quite a few months (since late summer).

0.6c SST drop in July for Nino 3.4. The cold upwelling at 55m is stronger than last year at the same time around 100W to 140W.

A bit odd, since we have been told that La Nina was on the way out (until now that is).

it was
and it had all gone back to neutral conditions (but with lingering effects)
but now its starting to re build...instead of either staying neutral or swinging to El Nino
I would say that we will see a very strong El Nino to follow in a couple of years, coinciding with the solar sun spot cycle

Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 03/09/2021 13:59 Agencies and their models remain split on whether the threshold will be breached.

Doesn't matter. Huey knows.

The La Nina threshold being breached is certainly a more favoured scenario now across most agencies. NOAA, going for a strong event in November / December

Well, seems like we're there now with a north-easterly pattern setting up.

A significant cold water upwelling from 100m below the surface in October is making this look like a stronger La Nina than last year at the moment.

NOAA going for a Super La Nina in December to rival the 1973 event.

maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?

There were 9 South Pacific cyclones between 1 Nov 1973 to 31 Jan 1974, 3 of those were the Coral sea. The current early sea surface temperatures would support a repeat performance if MJO plays its part.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Wed 27/10/2021 11:20 maybe we might see a coral sea tropical cyclone before xmas?

3rd week of November is a possibility.

I worked for New Zealand Met Service at Kelburn in the forecast room in 1973 -1974.Was a busy time with the South Pacific tropical cyclones.Plotting weather maps with winds mean speeds above 100 knots before the storms destroyed the radio masts.