UK Weather - Autumn 2021

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The dry weather at the end of Summer has continued into early Autumn with the first few days of September being very unremarkable on the weather front. The high pressure, that was anchored to our NW for quite a while, has drifted eastwards and is now (12 noon, Saturday 4th Sept) over Norway at 1026mb and is therefore drawing more of a southerly over the UK. This will bring much warmer weather (and sunnier) in the next few days as the high drifts a little south into northern Europe. We could see the mercury getting close to 30°C in and around London by the middle of the coming week, which is higher than August managed. It is likely to turn a little more unsettled by the end of the week and bring most of the UK its first rain for close on 3 weeks.

Here in Tiverton, the last few days have been mostly cloudy, although it did break yesterday (Fri) afternoon to give us the first sunshine in nearly five days. Today, after a misty/foggy start, the low cloud has cleared and we have a lovely sunny day with clear blue skies at midday and a temperature of 20°C.

The CET for September was 15.3°C (+0.5°C) up to the third and the EWR was 0mm, also up to the 3rd. The average rainfall figure for the month is 78mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Good to have the forum back - one post lost on this thread.

We have enjoyed a heatwave here in much of the UK in the early part of September with plenty of warm sunshine and a few thunderstorms thrown in when cooler conditions moved east. The hottest days (and maximum temperatures) were:

Monday 6th September - 28.9°C at Larkhill (Wiltshire)
Tuesday 7th September - 30.7°C at Gogerddan (W Wales)
Wednesday 8th September - 30.3°C at London Heathrow + RAF Northolt
Thursday 9th September - 26.9°C at Lingwood (Norfolk)

A few storms moved east on Weds/Thurs and a few FC's were seen in Wales + Scotland, but we only had heavy rain here in Tiverton.

It is cooler now with a lot more cloud, but still around average temperatures for early autumn.

The CET for September was 18.2°C (+3.7°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 10mm also up to the 10th, which is 13% of the monthly average of 78mm. The current CET for September is higher than for all the summer months.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The warm weather has moved away to the east and we are back in a more mobile flow with the usual bands of rain crossing the country from the west with drier slots of a few days in-between. Yesterday (Tues 14th Sept) was a wet day in eastern parts of England with heavy rain during daylight - the Met Office site at Cambridge NIAB recorded 52mm between 6am and 6pm. Here in the SW, the rain was overnight and into the morning and much lighter - we only had around 5mm here in Tiverton.

Looking forward, we will have dry and bright days today and Thursday and pleasantly warm once the early mist and fog clears, but rain is back for Friday. Still on the warm side of average.

Here is a photo of the setting sun in Tiverton on Sunday 5th September - it was rather hazy that day.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Since the rain of Tuesday it has been mostly dry over the UK with some sunshine and still on the warm side for the time of the year. Weather fronts are trying to push in from the west, but a stubborn ridge of high pressure has slowed them down - but they will make some progress this weekend, so the wet weather arrives at its usual time after the working week has ended. Not too bad today (Saturday 18th Sept) here in Tiverton as it is dry so far, but mostly cloudy and only a little sunshine is making it through the clouds.

The attached map has been copied from the BBC Twitter feed and is a fairly good representation of the current sea surface temperatures around the UK today - they reach their maximum at this time of the year. These are the open sea temperatures, so the water can be a little warmer than this near to the coast or beach, especially if it is sunny.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It was the autumnal equinox today in the UK and the weather has remained mostly mild and dry. It was a bit windy in Scotland yesterday (Tues 21st) with a few gusts to 50-60mph and an unusual METAR code was reported at Inverness Airport for much of the afternoon - BLDU - blowing dust. A couple of sample METARS:

EGPE 211420Z 22023G37KT 9999 BLDU FEW032 17/10 Q1021
EGPE 211350Z 21023G41KT 180V250 9999 BLDU FEW032 17/10 Q1021

Last week there was an expectation of a switch for all of the UK to much more unsettled weather this week, but this has occurred further north than expected and not affected most of the UK. The same expectation is now in place for next week, but it will remain on the warm side through the coming weekend.

The CET for September was 17.0°C (+3.0°) up to the 21st and the EWR was 24mm up to the 20th which is 31% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Awhituobs »

re your UK summer sea temperatures, that is not much above our coldest sea temperatures around the upper north island!
(then compare that to 21C for winter water temperature on the Gold Coast Australia, then compare that to 29c for winter for Samoa!)
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed Brian, only the hardy venture into the sea for a swim in the UK! That said, close to the coast in a period of warm summer weather, the SST can reach around 20°C along the south coast, but by the end of the winter it will be down to 8-10°C, so wetsuits needed for the surfers.

It has remained very mild for the time of the year and the temperature reached 25°C yesterday (Fri 24th Sept) in London and the Midlands. Not so warm here in the south west, but a little sunshine did lift the mercury to 20°C. Overnight into today it was a mild night for much of the UK with some places not falling below 16/17°C as the mild and cloudy SW flow continues over the UK for a day or so more.

A big change in the weather is on its way, though. An active cold front will cross the country on Monday and introduce more of a westerly flow and this will drop the daytime temperatures by at least 5-6°C and back to near normal for the time of the year. The weather will also become more unsettled with rain and showers for most of next week. The wind will also pick up and this will be welcomed by the under pressure energy sector.

The CET for September was 16.8°C (+3.0°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 25mm up to the 23rd, which is just 31% of the monthly average. We were on target for a record warm September, but the imminent change in the airmass will end that chance.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cold front was quite active as it crossed the UK today with a squall line developing along much of its length. It came through Tiverton at 5am with some torrential rain, but it appears to have been more developmental further north as three probable tornadoes were reported in the morning in Yorkshire and Humberside. The BBC still insists on using the mini word!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-58706938

We are now in the cooler Atlantic air and it will get colder still over the next day or so - I will be giving the central heating a test run tomorrow in preparation for the winter ahead and I may need a extra little heat in the house by Wednesday. There will also be quite a lot more rain/showers in the next few days, so a definite switch to Autumn has occurred. The models are getting exited about a major low crossing the UK next weekend, but these expectations are usually slowly downgraded. We could certainly do without a damaging storm to add to all the other current woes.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Orion »

A FREAK tornado swept through an Essex airfield today causing millions of pounds worth of damage to aircraft.

Forty helicopters and planes were blown around by the force of the 20-second twister, which wreaked havoc at Stapleford Aerodrome.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16283729/ ... ft-damage/
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Thanks for posting the link about the Essex tornado, Orion. I have seen CCTV footage that shows a very discreet and small vortex pass one of the buildings at the airfield and thus the damage does appear to be tornadic. It formed on a band of rain that had a convective element, but no strong gusts (greater than 40pmh) were reported from the local weather stations.

The unsettled theme to the weather has and will continue with a lot more wind and rain to come this weekend. We seem to be getting longer periods of the same weather here in the UK with quite big swings when the change from one type to another occurs. After a mostly dry first 3-4 weeks of September, it has turned a lot wetter in the last few days.

There is the usual start to winter forecasting at the moment and many are quoting a potential SSW event in late Nov/early Dec as a harbinger to a cold winter, but this is all no more than speculation at the moment. With a likely renewal of the La Nina phase to ENSO this autumn/winter, then the chances of a colder winter are higher for Western Europe, but there is not a one to one link on this.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been rather wet in the UK over the last few days with bands of rain sweeping east and north east across the country. Most places have already seen 30-50mm in October and some north of 100mm. However, this is not necessarily unusual for the time of year - just past the Autumnal Equinox is often wet in the UK. Yesterday saw 80mm in NE England, but the southern and eastern half of the UK will dry out over the next few days as the Azores ridge pushes NE. But, a trailing front will keep western and more likely north western parts wet and miserable - we could see quite a lot of rain in SW + W Scotland between now and the weekend as this front gets stuck. If the sun comes out further south, we should see a couple of days with 20°C reached before the axis of high pressure changes and a cool down occurs.

The final CET for September was 15.9°C (+2.3°C) which makes it the seventh warmest in that series. The final EWR was 68mm which is 87% of the long term average.

For those of you who love their cars, I was able to stroll past the old site of Aston Martin (in Newport Pagnell) on 7th September when I was working in the area. It was a sultry and clear evening and at the time (7:30pm) it was still 25°C. The site is now a museum as production has moved elsewhere, but I remember going into the old factory many years ago (as an industrial door fitter!) when the cars were still hand made - it really was a trip into the past as all jobs were still done by individuals working in any available corner. I remember watching a gentleman hand stitch the leather cover to the steering wheel and it was like a work of art. Couple of photos of what is now left on the site - the bit over the other side of the road that I visited is now new housing!! It was getting dark at the time I took the photos, but the sky was clear and a hazy light blue colour.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been rather mild for the time of year in the last few days, but often rather cloudy here in the SW as we have missed most of the sunshine on offer. The temperature reached 22°C on both Thursday and Friday in eastern England, but more like 18°C here in the SW. I am not complaining as it has remained dry, so outside activities have been possible. As the axis of the high pressure shifts more to our west, the source of the air over the UK will become more of a NW flow and this will lower the temperatures a bit - but most of the coming week should be dry.

The CET for October was 12.8°C (+0.6°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 53mm up to the 7th, which is 61% of the monthly average of 87mm - it was certainly quite a wet start to the month, but it has dried out completely since the 5th.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The mild and dry weather has continued for most of the UK in the last few days with high pressure mostly to our west or south west being in control of the weather. Nothing exceptional temperature wise, but it has been a little cooler at night with plenty of radiation fog, particularly here in the SW of England. We are currently seeing a cold front move south across the country (today, Fri 15th Oct) which will introduce a slightly cooler airmass for a couple of days, but much milder air will return early next week but with rain in tow this time - it could become quite unsettled and wet for a while.

The models are generally hinting at much colder weather by next weekend and unsettled conditions - so wet, windy and cold for the latter part of October is the current expected theme. Talk of an early SSW still persists, but I am not convinced of the accuracy of the current model projections. We shall see.

The CET for October was 12.9°C (+1.2°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 54mm up to the 13th, which is 62% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The last couple of days have been quite stormy in the UK as low pressure from the Atlantic has (briefly) re-asserted its influence. It has also been very wet over much of the UK with quite a few weather stations reporting 50mm+ in the last two days. There was even a brief tornado on Wednesday in Widnes, which is a town in-between Liverpool and Manchester.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-58985148

It has been a lot calmer today (Thurs 21st Oct) with plenty of sunshine here in Tiverton, albeit much cooler at just 12°C this afternoon. We should see the first widespread ground frost of autumn tonight into Friday morning.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has calmed down since the end of last week with high pressure to the south keeping the rain bearing fronts at bay. It has been rather chilly as well with local ground frost at night when the skies have cleared. Looking ahead, the calmer weather looks to continue for most, although we will see one of those 'atmospheric rivers' set up for the NW of the UK over the next few days, so plenty of rain for these parts. The majority of the UK will remain mostly dry with the temperature returning to normal or a little above in the next few days.

The CET for October was 12.5°C (+1.3*C) up to the 22nd and the EWR was 95mm up to the 21st, which is 109% of the monthly average.

I forgot to post a summary of the September weather - it was quite a bit warmer and drier than average, with sunshine close to average. The best of the weather was in more north western parts of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... -of-autumn
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As forecast well in advance by the Met Office, a waving front has got stuck over western parts of the UK and the result has been a very wet couple of days for parts of Ireland and N Wales and particularly NW England and SW Scotland - totals over 100mm have been widespread in the latter two districts. These are the totals for the 36 hours to 9am this morning (Thurs 28th Oct):

332mm at Honister Pass (Cumbria)
271mm at Seathwaite (Cumbria)
238mm at Coniston Coppermines (Cumbria)
111mm at Eskdalemuir Observatory (Dumfries & Galloway)

These areas generally had a dry summer and early autumn, so this rainfall, whilst it has caused some flooding, will certainly top up the reservoirs.

Meanwhile much of the south and east of the UK has been dry and cloudy and in some very warm and muggy air - night time minimums for the last two nights have been between 13-15°C in many places.

The CET for October was 12.4°C (+1.4°C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 101mm also up to the 26th, which is 116% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Quite a stormy weekend here in the UK and especially on Sunday. A cold front was moving across the UK but a small 'mesolow' developed in the English Channel and ran NE up the front from Hampshire to Lincolnshire with a short period of very strong winds on its southern flank - gusts were in the range 60-70mph inland and possibly as high as 80mph - not many reliable wind sites in the region affected. Top gusts recorded were:

87mph at Portland Bill (Devon coast)
72mph at Larkhill (Wiltshire)
69mph at RAF Boscombe Down (Wilts) and RAF Wittering (Cambs)
60mph at Oxford Airport

Press reports have been calling it a tornado, but there is no clear evidence for this - it just looks like a wide swathe (20-30km) of SLW. Attached map being compiled by TORRO (Tornado & Storm Research Organisation) clearly shows the relatively narrow swathe of damage reports which range from felled tress to roof and wall damage.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has been much quieter since the weekend and cooler with night frosts in more sheltered spots - the first general frosts of the autumn over more southern parts of the UK. The benign autumn weather looks set to continue in the south through the coming weekend into next week, with mostly cloudy skies, but more unsettled further north with a general pick-up in the wind - this will please the government as we can show the COP-26 Conference that we can actually generate some power from renewables if the wind blows.

The final CET for October was 12.1°C (+1.5°C) and the final EWR was 145mm, which is 167% of the monthly average. The Met Office have produced a summary for the month which was warmer, wetter and duller than average.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/11/0 ... or-the-uk/

The aurora was visible last night over much of the UK with the best views being in Scotland. It was even seen down here in the far SW, but the lights from Tiverton town drowned it out for me and it was mostly cloudy around the peak time (9-10pm).
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has remained rather quiet and mild with only a little rain and most of this in the north of the UK. The temperature reached 17/18°C today (Tues 9th Nov) in parts of NW England and N Wales that had shelter (and some sunshine) from the mountains to their SW. Even under cloudy skies we reached 15°C here in Tiverton and it felt very muggy. This weather looks set to continue for a few more days, but a high ridging from the north by the weekend will bring some breaks in the cloud and a gradual cooling - likely to be some frost at night where the cloud clears.

The Met Office have provided a good write up on the heavy rain event at the end of October when an 'atmospheric river' brought 400mm+ to parts of Cumbria in just 3 days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... r_rain.pdf

The CET for November was 8.2°C (+0.2°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was just 9mm also up to the 8th, which is 9% of the monthly average of 92mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Nothing much happening with the weather at the moment in the UK - mostly dry and mild and unfortunately, mostly cloudy. That said, here in Tiverton, the cloud cleared this morning (Sun 14th Nov) to give us mostly gin blue clear skies with just a few puffs of cumulus and a maximum of 13°C. Not too bad for mid-November.

The fairly quiet and mild weather looks set to continue for most of the coming week with the skies still being mostly cloudy. Not a lot of power generation coming this week from the wind and the sun I am afraid.

The CET for November was 9.3°C (+1.6°C) up to the 13th and the EWR was just 15mm, which is 18% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has remained quiet and mild in the UK for the last few days with plenty of cloud and only a little rain as a broad S-SW flow has persisted. It has been particularly mild in more eastern parts of the UK and places with shelter from the S-SW wind and a little sunshine have seen the temperature pass 60°F in recent days. The highest figure I can find is for today, Friday 19th November, and is the 16.8°C recorded at Aberdeen Airport in the NE of Scotland. This part of the UK is prone to warm days when the fohn effect appears in a S-SW flow over the Cairngorm Mountains.

The CET for November was 9.3°C (+2.1°C) up to the 18th and the EWR was 16mm up to the 17th which is just 17% of the monthly average.

We have some big changes coming to the weather in the next week and starting at the weekend when a more NW flow will become established and it will turn colder but with some sunshine - and not much in the way of rain/showers. After a slight recovery in temperature early next week, the current model output suggests much colder weather will head south Weds/Thurs to bring the first wintry spell of weather with some snow and widespread frosts. Looks a bit like the synoptic set-up we saw in 2010.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The transition to a colder weather regime is underway as it has been noticeably colder since the weekend, albeit still mostly dry. We had the first air frost of the season here in Tiverton town on Tuesday morning and having the central heating on is now a fixture that will last for the next 5 months or so. Here the Government has made ridiculous plans to scrap all electricity generation from coal + gas (often 50-60% of the total) in about 10 years time and swap the gas boilers in 20 million homes for Hydrogen ones or replace them altogether with heat pumps. We will all have to start wearing vests again and knit a few more jumpers I fear! :lol:

The Met Office have issued some weather warnings for wind (up to 80mph in more exposed places in the east) for the end of the week and first part of the coming weekend as a deepening low (around about 980mb) moves south down the North Sea by Saturday morning and introduces a cold and windy northerly airstream - there will likely be snow warnings by then for the north and the hills, but I would not rule out the first dusting of snow for lower ground either.

It looks to be fairly short cold snap as a return to milder SW winds is expected by next Tues/Weds.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The low pressure system developing and moving south down the North Sea today (Fri 26th Nov 2021) has been named 'Storm Arwen' and the Met Office have issued a rare red warning for strong winds in NE + E Scotland and E England - wind gusts to 80-90mph are expected. There are also numerous other warnings for snow and strong winds for other parts of the UK. Arwen was at 976mb in the north of the North Sea at noon today and still deepening.

Red wind warnings are fairly rare in the UK - the last one was, I think, in Dec 2016.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... torm-arwen

The warning period is from mid-afternoon until the early hours of Saturday - so far, we have seen gusts to 74mph in NE Scotland, but there are not many official weather stations in the places likely to be the most affected.

Cold and showery here today (Fri 26th Nov) in Tiverton with some sunshine, but some hail in the showers. Getting colder and down to 4°C by teatime in a strong and gusty wind. There will be a sprinkling of snow on the SW Moors tonight.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The low pressure (Storm Arwen) moved south through the North Sea and at 12 noon today (Sat 27th Nov) it was over the Netherlands at 988mb and still giving a windy (and cold) day to the UK. The worst of the winds were in the early hours of Saturday morning and affected the NE of England, SE Scotland and parts of the west and south west of the UK. The highest gusts I can find at Met Office sites are:

98mph at Brizlee Wood (an RAF radar site in Northumberland)
92mph at Berry Head (Devon)
87mph at Orlock Head (co Down, N Ireland)
81mph at Inverbervie (Kincardinshie, E Scotland), Aberporth (W Wales) + Malin Head (N coast of Eire)

There are plenty of 'unoffical' readings of 100mph+, but I cannot vouch for these sites.

Here in Tiverton we had a brief period of wet snow on Friday evening, but the temperature picked up a bit overnight as the NNW wind increased to strong to gale force for a few hours - a local site recorded a gust of 62mph which is not too far from my own estimates for my site.

As most of the damage is up t'north, the media have not reported it - lot of competition from the new COVID strain as well. BBC have a good piece on the damage and effects - sadly, there were 3 fatalities:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59435965
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2021

Unread post by Orion »

Sad loss of life and destruction, Simon.
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