Potential significant heavy rain South Island west coast, Nov 26-28

[Chris W]

Just starting a thread for this as there's a long period of sustained high rainfall intensities up much of the west coast modelled for this weekend (GFS, UK), starting with Fiordland tomorrow through Buller on Sunday. Metservice went high confidence on heavy rain a couple of days ago and are mentioning the potential of a significant event, which for the coast means a lot of rain.

Thinking the Canterbury rivers will also be going pretty strongly by Sunday.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/sev ... er-outlook

[darcyplumb]

Very impressive atmospheric river evident this morning from northern Australia.

[TonyT]

Thinking the Canterbury rivers will also be going pretty strongly by Sunday.

Plenty of spill over rain onto the eastern hill country so not just the alpine fed rivers, but pretty much all of them.

[Razor]

Almost 2 years to the weekend when we nipped down to Timaru for the day, and ended up in a civil defence farmstead in Geraldine for 3 days while the South Island was literally cut in half. I see a parallel in this forecast

[Richard]

Almost 2 years to the weekend when we nipped down to Timaru for the day, and ended up in a civil defence farmstead in Geraldine for 3 days while the South Island was literally cut in half. I see a parallel in this forecast

One notable difference though, 2 years ago the mid SI event saw active thunderstorms, this one seems to lack that ingredient.

[Chris W]

Seems the rainfall totals reduced significantly going by the MS charts just before the weekend, and I also haven’t heard of anything too problematic over there. Cropp River received about 210mm in the past 7 days.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

This event did tend to 'elbow shape' itself across the Alps and into South Canterbury on Saturday. We got 53.6mm for this event from continuous rainfall all day.