UK Weather - Winter 2021/22

[Simon Culling]

Meteorological winter starts today, Wednesday 1st of December, here in the UK. There has been much talk in the last few months of an early SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) this year to give a cold start to winter and including November. However, this has not happened yet and there is no sign of this in the models or indeed the weather on the ground. The north of Scandinavia is very cold at the moment, but this is not unusual as we approach the longest night/shortest day period - the temperature fell to -37°C in Lapland (the home of Santa ) a couple of nights ago.

The Met Office are now predicting a slightly milder and wetter than average winter - a repeat of recent winters, then!

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1465397418606972929

Full details of the contingency planners forecast can be found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... secure.pdf

What do I think? The general theme from the Met Office seems about right, but I would not rule out one cold blast, especially around late December and the turn of the year. Might even get some snow down here in the SW.

[Simon Culling]

Winter has started very average in terms of temperature and rainfall, but it has felt chilly at times in the breeze. There has been rain or showers on the first five days here in Tiverton and we had at least three hail showers on Saturday.

The second named storm of the season is now developing and will approach the UK from later on Monday 6th - it has been named Storm Barra and thankfully it will have stopped deepening just before it reaches our shores - it will be around 960mb by midday Tuesday as it approaches Eire where a red maritime warning is in force for the SW coasts. It looks like it will move into the UK rather than the usual curve NE and this will give us a couple of cold and wet days with snow in the north.

The after effects of Storm Arwen still grumble on with 3000 properties still not re-connected in NE England on Saturday - and some of these might not get power until Wednesday. After a week, a UK Minister finally has something to say.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-59538471

Many factors came into play last weekend to make this storm so disruptive. The winds were stronger than we would normally expect from a low pressure system and the blew from the N which is not common - its the 'wrong direction' so trees and power lines may be more vulnerable and/or less protected from strong winds from this direction. Also, the rain turned to wet snow above about 500ft elevation in NE England + SE Scotland and the strong wind and evaporative cooling would have seen this snow clinging to the power lines and freezing, and the extra weight will have brought some down. Normally with strong winds from the SW, it is much too mild for this to happen.

[Orion]

Storm Barra hits Dawlish and GWR's train service hard (9:04)

Weather warnings were already in place in Dawlish for Storm Barra however we didn't expect so much trouble on the railways.

At least two trains broke down during the storm cutting of the railway line for over three hours. One broke down in Dawlish railway station, a second train between Teignmouth and Newton Abbot and possible the train that came to rescue the failed IET at Dawlish also broke down. ...

[Simon Culling]

Storm Barra is slowly filling now (Weds evening) as it drifts slowly across northern England but it is still windy across most of the UK. The strongest winds were yesterday and over Eire and associated waters. The highest gusts I can find are:

100mph at Fastnet Lighthouse (a very exposed site off the south coast of Eire)
86mph at Aberdaron (NW Wales)
84mph at Sherkin Island (far SW tip of Eire - 10 minute mean speed here was 69mph at 12Z on Tuesday)
83mph at Mace Head (W coast of Eire)
82mph at Kerry Airport (SW Eire)

Thankfully, reported damage has not been as bad as Storm Arwen - the last of those without power as a result of Arwen were connected today - after 12 days. Now it is the turn of electricity customers in Eire to wait for the power to be re-connected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59573366

[Simon Culling]

Following Storm Barra, the UK weather has calmed down and become the usual mix of winter weather - a mild wet day followed by a colder and clearer one. So far the month has seen fairly average weather in terms of temperature but it has been wetter than normal.

The CET for December was 5.2°C (+0.2°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 43mm up to the 9th which is 45% of the monthly average of 96mm.

Looking forward, there looks to be a small but very deep secondary depression passing close to the NW of Scotland on Sunday night and some of the modelled wind fields are predicting wind gusts of up to 115mph coming very close to the Hebrides. After this low moves away NE we will be stuck in a mild SW-W flow with drizzly rain, but there are quite strong indications that high pressure will dominate the weather after midweek and could persist to Christmas. It will start mild and cloudy but it looks like it will slowly cool due to cloud limiting day warming as we approach the time of lowest incoming radiation. All in all, it looks like a very dull 10 days to come.

[Simon Culling]

The low mentioned in my previous post moved rapidly NE just to the west of Scotland and the worst of the winds appear to have stayed over open waters. The highest gusts on land stations were around 80mph which is nothing exceptional for the Hebrides or the Northern Isles - this is just a bit of a blowy day for them! We have all been left in a mild SW flow since the low moved away NE overnight into Monday and we have seen temperatures reach 14-15°C on both Mon/Tues in more southern parts despite not a lot of sunshine.

Here in Tiverton it has remained cloudy with occasional drizzle, but very mild. A high pressure cell, currently over Eastern Europe, is expected to move NW and intensify and to be over the UK by Friday, and then persist in roughly this location for quite a while. It is a cloudy high, so we could be looking at another week without any sunshine as the thick blanket of stratocumulus persists. Over time, the temperatures will slowly fall (as the incoming radiation reaches its low point for the year and the mild SW flow slowly gets cut off) and it could be quite chilly by the weekend. Altogether not an inspiring forecast.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has been calm and settled for the last few days as the high pressure has moved NW to be close to the UK - at 12Z today (Saturday 18th December) it was at 1041mb over eastern England. Whilst the weather has been cloudy for much of the UK, parts of the east and north east have seen some sunshine, but this has allowed fog to develop widely in these areas. There is also a significant low level inversion over Scotland which is giving warm sunshine to the mountain tops, but keeping the valleys cold and often in fog. At 9am this morning, the mountain site at Cairnwell (at over 3000ft altitude) was at 14°C whilst the nearby valley site at Braemar (at 1000ft in the Glen) was at -6°C.

A very good explanation in this tweet:

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 4123428867

The CET for December was 6.5°C (+1.6°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 51mm up to the 16th, which is 54% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Not much to report on the weather front as the rather boring weather has continued here in the UK, especially for those of us in the south. Colder air made it into the northern half of the UK last week and the lowest temperature of the current season (so far) of -10.2°C was recorded at Braemar on Wednesday. On the same day, nearby Balmoral had a maximum of just -5.3°C as the cold air became trapped in the Glens.

Nothing exiting here in Devon and the weather has turned a little more unsettled in the last day or so with rain today, Christmas Eve. Santa will be delivering his presents in mostly mild conditions this year, although there could be a little snow over northern England late on the big day as another front pushes NE into slightly colder air - but not much at elevations where anyone actually lives. And for Tiverton? Rain for most of the day tomorrow, so another mild and soggy Christmas Day.

The CET for December was 5.9°C (+1.0°C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 56mm up to the 22nd, which is 58% of the monthly average. Another warm month.

[Simon Culling]

We had a very wet day on Christmas Day here in Tiverton with virtually continuous rain from before dawn. Two local PWS recorded 42mm and 45mm respectively and the Environment Agency gauge just to the south of the town had 43mm, so a thoroughly wet day. Boxing Day was a little better with fog in the morning and a few heavy showers during the day and fog again in the evening. Today, a Bank Holiday Monday, has also been rather wet with periods of showery rain and we are past 10mm of rainfall again by late afternoon.

Looking forward, it will remain very mild and unsettled, although with not quite so much rain as the last few days. The mercury could hit 15/16°C in southern parts on both Wednesday and Thursday, so it will feel more like Spring than Winter. The season of Winter seems to be disappearing and being replaced by a long transition between Autumn and Spring.

Despite the miserable weather here in the south, at least parts of Scotland had a white Christmas:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... d-59789417

[Simon Culling]

We have had a run of very mild days here in the UK with rain at times and a continuation of the virtually sunless days. I think December 2021 will go down as one of the dullest on record when we get the figures in a few days time.

The warmest New Year's Eve Day was recorded today with a high of 15.8°C being recorded at RNAS Merryfield, which is located in the county of Somerset. This beat the previous UK date record for 31st December of 14.8°C which was set at Colwyn Bay (N Wales) back in 2011.

There is a good chance we may beat the date record for New Years Day and possibly the UK January minimum record in the next day or so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-59840877

Happy New Year to all followers of NZ Weather Forum.

[Orion]

Happy New Year, Simon

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion - best wishes for the New Year.

We had a very mild end to 2021 and start to the New Year 2022. We saw record temperatures recorded in the UK for both New Years Eve + New Years Day, with 16.5°C at Bala (N Wales) on the former and 16.3°C at St James Park on the latter. Some much higher temperatures recorded o/night between the two days under fohn conditions in N Wales suggest up to 18/19°C may have been recorded locally in the early hours of New Years Day. Unfortunately there is no longer an official station in the right location!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59847641

Much colder weather is moving south this morning (Tues 4th Jan) with snow in the north.

[Simon Culling]

It has been colder here in the UK for the last few days with mostly NW winds and plenty of showers - which have turned to snow at times, particularly in the north and over higher ground. We have even managed a couple of days with sleet here in Tiverton, although nothing more than a few blobs of wet snow mixed in with the cold rain.

Another couple of coldish days to come this weekend, then it is back to milder but drier weather - boring high pressure clag as you guys call it.

The final CET for December has not yet been published, but it was a warm month as this Met Office summary makes clear. It was also a very dull month with a UK average of just 27.6 hours. This makes it the fifth dullest of all months on the UK sunshine list which started in 1919.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/01/0 ... 21weather/

The current CET for January is 6.9°C (+3.3°C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 11mm up to the 5th, which is 12% of the monthly average of 91mm.

[Simon Culling]

Saturday (8th Jan) was another wet day down here in the SW of England with drizzly rain all day with some heavier rain as the front cleared just before dusk. The evening brought plenty of showers with a couple of heavy ones with hail to rattle the window panes. We had further showers on Sunday and it was a little cooler, but the last two days have been dull and misty with long periods of light drizzle and milder again - up to 12°C today (Tues 11th). It has been a bit livelier elsewhere in the UK and there was a suspected small tornado in the SW of Eire on Friday and a waterspout in the same area on Saturday.

High pressure is building from the SW now and we will have a period of calmer weather for a few days, especially in the south - the NW of the UK will see cloud and rain off the Atlantic, but central and southern parts will see some sunshine and become a little cooler, but this will quickly bring the mist and fog and the cloud will fill-in. It could become quite chilly if this happens.

The CET for January was 6.2°C (+2.7°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 27mm up to the 9th, which is 29% of the monthly average. Might be a while before we get much more rainfall this month.

[Simon Culling]

High pressure has become firmly established over the UK for the last few days and this dominance looks set to continue through the current week and into next weekend with little rain in the offing. Temperatures for most have been around the average, but it could turn a little cooler later this coming week. That said, where overnight fog has persisted - in much of eastern and central England - it has been much colder. An 'ice day' was recorded at three sites in Yorkshire (Ravensworth, RAF Leeming + RAF Topcliffe) on Saturday with all 3 recording a max temp of -0.4°C.

Here in Tiverton we did mange two lovely sunny days on Thursday and Friday with highs near 9°C after a slight overnight frost. This is more like early Spring rather than mid-Winter. Nothing really cold in the models short term, but some are toying with an easterly by the end of January, but for this to happen, we would need a build of pressure from the UK to Scandinavia to occur and this is a rare beast.

The CET for January was 5.5°C (+2.0°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 30mm up to the 14th which is 33% of the monthly average. This is not going to increase much by the end of the month.

I posted this in the seismic thread, but as it does not happen very often, it is worth a repeat. The Met Office tweeted copies of barometric traces at two sites in southern England that recorded two pressure waves from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on Saturday evening/Sunday morning.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/14 ... 6659622914

[Simon Culling]

We have been enjoying the start of a period of anticyclonic gloom for the last few days with a persistent Sc sheet and a small range in temperature. This follows what was generally the coldest night of the winter in southern England on 20th/21st January - the last time we had clear skies. Lowest minimums were:

-7.9°C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)
-7.2°C at Bournemouth Hurn Airport (Hants)
-6.9°C at St Harmon (central Wales)
-6.6°C at Throckmorton Airfield, Pershore (Worcestershire)

The gloom is likely to continue for a few days as high pressure dominates the UK - it is positioned over the south of the UK/north France and looks like staying around for a few days. This quiet and cloudy weather is not good for the green energy sector, as with not much wind and sunshine, we are still relying on fossil fuels (and Europe) for half of our electricity. Current supply numbers (for electricity) at 11am on Sunday morning are:

Gas 44%
Coal 4%
Wind 15% (the offshore sites proving their worth in calmer conditions)
Solar 1%
Nuclear 14%
Biomass 8% (mostly the burning of wood pellets, so not sure how this is biomass)
Imported 12% (there are interconnectors to France, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland + Norway)
Others 2%

[Simon Culling]

As seems to be the trend in recent years, we are currently seeing an abrupt change in the weather type. After a week and a half of high pressure dominating the weather over the UK, the jet stream has been re-invigorated, and looks like producing a few deep lows for the UK and surrounding areas. The first system, named 'Storm Mailk' by the Danish Meteorological Institute, passed to the north of the UK today (Sat 29th Jan) and has given some very strong winds to the north and north east of the UK. Highest gusts I can find are:

93mph at Brizlee Wood (an RAF site in Northumberland)
85mph at Inverbervie (Aberdeenshire)
83mph at Emley Moor (Yorkshire)
81mph at Loch Glascarnoch (NW Highlands)

There appears to have been some damage and tragically one fatality in Scotland from a falling tree.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60181568

The next system has already been named Storm Corrie by the Met Office and it set to bring another batch of strong winds to the north of the UK on Sunday night and into Monday.

The CET for January was 4.9°C (+1.2°C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 34mm up to the 27th, which is just 37% of the monthly average. One of the drier January's in the UK record.

[Simon Culling]

Storm Corrie crossed northern Scotland overnight Sunday into Monday with a fairly narrow swathe of strong winds across the middle of the country. Highest gusts I can find are:

92mph at Stornoway Airport + Inverbervie
77mph at Loch Glascarnoch
76mph at South Uist Range + Benbecula Airport
72mph at Aultbea

At the mountain stations, 124mph was recorded on Cairngorm Summit and 123mph on Cairnwell. Thankfully there does not appear to have been any further serious injuries, but plenty of the usual damage and the inevitable power cuts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60196439

Down here in the SW it has been breezy and still rather mild, but at least we had some sunshine today. Looking forward, still unsettled in the north, but less windy, but it looks like the weather has been cancelled for more southern parts.

[Simon Culling]

The rather nondescript weather continues here in the SW of the UK with just bits and pieces of rain and/or drizzle - it is also still mild.

January turned out to be average over the UK temperature wise but it was very dry and sunny - although the latter was very much biased to the eastern half of the country. Indeed, it was the sunniest January on record for England (which stretches back to 1919), although it was only the third sunniest for the UK as a whole with nearly 63 hours for the month. It was also a dry month and particularly so in the southern half, with England as a whole only receiving 38% of the monthly average rainfall. More details in this Met Office Blog entry:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/02/0 ... or-the-uk/

The CET + EWR figures for January have not yet been published.

[Simon Culling]

It has turned a little more unsettled in the last couple of days with rain and showers for most and a little snow in Scotland. It has been on the mild side still here in the south, but somewhat cooler further north. The cooling trend looks like continuing later this week with a return to a north westerly flow by Thursday and into the weekend. No sign of real winter though, in the models. In fact, after the brief NW flow later this week, it looks like a return to mild and mostly dry south westerlies for much of the UK. The polar vortex has remained strong this winter with little lobe formation, and there are no signs of an imminent SSW.

Spring is not far away now, so thoughts wander to enjoying the first warm day of the year.

The final CET for January was 4.6°C (+0.8°C) and the final EWR was 36mm which is just 40% of the monthly average. This will rank it as the 27th driest January in the 256 year EWR series - dating back to 1766, i.e. in the approx. top 10% driest.

[Simon Culling]

The more unsettled weather has continued with the bulk of the 'weather' occurring in the northern half of the country - it remains rather benign and boring here in the south. Temperatures are generally still above average, but we are now getting some rain + drizzle down here in the SW. Today, Sunday 13th February is wet and miserable, but mild at 11°C.

The jet stream looks like ramping up this coming week and the unsettled weather will continue with a succession of low pressure systems impacting the UK, and I would not be surprised to see another named system particularly later in the coming week. It still looks to remain on the mild side.

The CET for February was 6.8°C (+2.6°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 21mm up to the 11th, which is 32% of the monthly average of 65mm.

[Simon Culling]

As was expected, we have named storms for this week - not one, but two. Firstly, Storm Dudley will affect more northern parts of the UK on Weds/Thurs with strong winds/rain, but Storm Eunice will affect more southern and central parts of the UK on Fri/Sat. The later storm is expected to travel a little further south than its predecessor and will draw in colder air north and north west of its centre, so there could be an impactful snowfall over northern England and southern Scotland. The arrival of Storm Eunice is over three days away and it hasn't even started to develop yet, but the Met Office already have plenty of warnings in place across the UK for the next five days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... act-the-uk

Currently (10am, Tues morning) it is cloudy here in Tiverton with steady light rain falling and a temperature of 9°C. Just a gentle WSW at the moment.

[Simon Culling]

The Met Office have issued a rare Red Warning for Strong Winds for parts of England + Wales for Friday 18th February in association with Storm Eunice. Much of England + Wales (and also Eire) have wind warnings with gusts to 60-80mph (even inland), but parts of the SW have warnings for gusts to 80-90mph.

There are also severe flood warnings in place for the Severn estuary as a storm surge will occur near high tide.

The strongest winds will more across the countries during daylight tomorrow with the inevitable consequences.

The post contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v1.0

[Orion]

^

severe flood warnings in place for the Severn estuary as a storm surge will occur near high tide.

- I can well imagine a surge rocketing up there.

Hoping for the best, Simon.

[Awhituobs]

bbc.com/news/live/uk-60421388