Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

[Razor]

Thought the upcoming week warrants a new thread. Significant flooding potential for large parts of NZ as the AK Covid bubble bursts. Going to be an interesting week

[spwill]

This December is already looking different to 2017 when sea temperatures were also very warm, December 2017 was a dry month for NZ.

[Awhituobs]

I see the TC has now reached the 35kt threshold
it just needs to be named now

[Razor]

MS as at Sunday morning:
Severe Weather Outlook
On Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system is expected to move onto New Zealand from the Tasman Sea. The low should move slowly southeastwards over the country and deepen on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing significant rain and strong winds to many areas.

There is low confidence of heavy rain in the west of the North Island from Northland to Taranaki, including Coromandel Peninsula during Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for the north and west of the North Island from Northland to the ranges of Gisborne, and to Wellington, also northern Marlborough and Tasman. There is low confidence of rainfall accumulation meeting warning amounts in southern Marlborough, eastern Canterbury during Wednesday and early Thursday, as indicated on the chart.

In addition, there is low risk of severe northeasterly gales in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula during Wednesday, and severe north to northeasterly gales in exposed parts of Gisborne during Wednesday and early Thursday.

[Awhituobs]

seems legit

[Razor]

Latest GFS seems to want to cross a low over the upper south Island mid week. Parts of our hood are still getting over the winter atmospheric river event... don't need another one!

[TonyT]

Latest GFS seems to want to cross a low over the upper south Island mid week. Parts of our hood are still getting over the winter atmospheric river event... don't need another one!

The next one we can probably handle, its the three or four coming after that which will be the problem...

[Dean.]

Latest GFS seems to want to cross a low over the upper south Island mid week. Parts of our hood are still getting over the winter atmospheric river event... don't need another one!

The next one we can probably handle, its the three or four coming after that which will be the problem...

Hopefully not around the New Year Tony

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[Razor]

Latest GFS seems to want to cross a low over the upper south Island mid week. Parts of our hood are still getting over the winter atmospheric river event... don't need another one!

The next one we can probably handle, its the three or four coming after that which will be the problem...

Heading down to Central Otago and Fiordland for a couple of weeks mid to late January. La Nina years are famous for brilliant weather down there. Hope I haven't just jinxed it

[Dean.]

The next one we can probably handle, its the three or four coming after that which will be the problem...

Heading down to Central Otago and Fiordland for a couple of weeks mid to late January. La Nina years are famous for brilliant weather down there. Hope I haven't just jinxed it

Late December early January heading to Glentanner Mt Cook....easterly weather please

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[Awhituobs]

I see the TC has been named:
TC Ruby

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Latest GFS seems to want to cross a low over the upper south Island mid week. Parts of our hood are still getting over the winter atmospheric river event... don't need another one!

We don't want another wet weather event down here and the street flooded again

[Blowy]

Garlic and Grape growers will not be at all amused....

[TonyT]

I see the TC has been named:
TC Ruby

Do we not start each season from 'A" now?

[Blowy]

Attached is the approved list of Australian Cyclone names for 2021-2022 and beyond, with the names for the next 12 in order:
• Ruby
• Seth
• Tiffany
• Vernon
• Anika
• Billy
• Charlotte
• Darian
• Ellie
• Freddy
• Gabrielle
• Herman
If you want an Australian cyclone named after you or a family member in the future, you should write to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

[Nev]

I see the TC has been named:
TC Ruby

Do we not start each season from 'A" now?

I think they only do that for US named TC's.

The BoM, Fiji Met and JMA usually carry on alphabetically from the last season, i.e. the BoM's last named TC was Odette off WA in April this year.

[David]

Gfs has really pulled back on the rain amounts here for Tue/Wed. Still, will be good for the garden

[Awhituobs]

but those rain totals included yesterday, when you looked at the models yesterday, so you need to take that into account

[David]

I'm talking about Tue/Wed only, initially was showing 100mm or more, and it's been trending down, now only 40mm

[Awhituobs]

i never take much notice of the rain accumulation from the models
its just a guide only, never be taken seriously, too many variables

[spwill]

Around 17mm of warm rain here late yesterday, lawns and gardens are looking great. The Jakaranda trees are putting on a purple show around Mt Eden currently.

[jamie]

Thunder to my west


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[David]

Nice steady rain for the garden, 15mm yesterday and up to 15mm today already

[jamie]

30 today so far and 15 yesterday. My neighbour a couple km away is up over 70mm. He was more directly under some heavy rain this arvo than me.


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[Awhituobs]

45mm here today
23mm yesterday