Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Growler »

Rain really starting to pick up in the Chch CBD now.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

Starting to increase in intensity here on campus at Lincoln.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by darcyplumb »

I see MS have extended the warning to Rangitata River northwards and now a watch for Canterbury south of the Rangitata.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Cantab03 »

Its eased again in the CBD. Radar definitely has some shadowing affect happening. The rain has been steady but nothing more than moderate.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Cantab03 »

Having just said this, tonight looks unbelievable now! 130mm now showing on Metservice projection before midnight with the 3 day maps update!
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

Interesting looking at the ecan gauges, northern suburbs of ChCh up round 30mm, southern suburbs running from CBD into the Port hills around 10mm or less
https://www.ecan.govt.nz/data/rainfall-data/
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Chris W »

Amberley over 70mm (same Wunderground PWS as earlier). Haven't looked outside for a while to check surface conditions.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris W wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 11:32 Amberley over 70mm (same Wunderground PWS as earlier). Haven't looked outside for a while to check surface conditions.
Odd, I'm on half of that at 35mm today. Plus a couple from yesterday.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

TonyT wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 11:45
Chris W wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 11:32 Amberley over 70mm (same Wunderground PWS as earlier). Haven't looked outside for a while to check surface conditions.
Odd, I'm on half of that at 35mm today. Plus a couple from yesterday.
Certainly would seem an outlier on the Ecan gauges too
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Chris W »

TonyT wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 11:45
Chris W wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 11:32 Amberley over 70mm (same Wunderground PWS as earlier). Haven't looked outside for a while to check surface conditions.
Odd, I'm on half of that at 35mm today. Plus a couple from yesterday.
Hmm ok, I did wonder with the PWS but that station is normally reasonably reliable for other metrics. Don't want to exaggerate however!

Edit - the other station has 33mm:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICANTERB94
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

Can see the low starting to form just off the coast from Westport on the radar, just as modelled.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Back home in Ashburton from Hanmer Springs. Lots of surface water here and probably the heaviest rain we encountered for the whole trip. My neighbour said it’s been raining since early this morning and gradually getting heavier.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

darcyplumb wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:17 Back home in Ashburton from Hanmer Springs. Lots of surface water here and probably the heaviest rain we encountered for the whole trip. My neighbour said it’s been raining since early this morning and gradually getting heavier.
Metservice is projecting 70mm today for you guys and another 40-50 from midnight to noon tomorrow
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Definitely some rain shadow going on for southern and western areas of chch. The heavy stuff seems to be hitting land and thinning out as it heads south. I've been out in Rolly all day and it has been light/moderate rain all day. Yet, at home in northwood I have 45mm and counting.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

snowchaser01 wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:35 Definitely some rain shadow going on for southern and western areas of chch. The heavy stuff seems to be hitting land and thinning out as it heads south. I've been out in Rolly all day and it has been light/moderate rain all day. Yet, at home in northwood I have 45mm and counting.
Just down the road in Lincoln its reasonable heavy at present, has come and gone a bit. I think things aren't due to really intensify til late afternoon
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Razor wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:19
darcyplumb wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:17 Back home in Ashburton from Hanmer Springs. Lots of surface water here and probably the heaviest rain we encountered for the whole trip. My neighbour said it’s been raining since early this morning and gradually getting heavier.
Metservice is projecting 70mm today for you guys and another 40-50 from midnight to noon tomorrow
We’re in trouble if that eventuates.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Razor wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:37
snowchaser01 wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:35 Definitely some rain shadow going on for southern and western areas of chch. The heavy stuff seems to be hitting land and thinning out as it heads south. I've been out in Rolly all day and it has been light/moderate rain all day. Yet, at home in northwood I have 45mm and counting.
Just down the road in Lincoln its reasonable heavy at present, has come and gone a bit. I think things aren't due to really intensify til late afternoon
Yea, I tend to agree. If the numbers eventuate that MS are hinting at, the city will have some problems by midnight. I believe, they currently have approx 85mm projected between 6pm and midnight!
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by JP. »

Does anyone know what the 24 hour rainfall record is for Christchurch City?
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

JP. wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:56 Does anyone know what the 24 hour rainfall record is for Christchurch City?
161.2mm in July 2017 I beleive.. if the stars align tonight we may get close to that.. maybe. But I doubt it
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by TonyT »

Rain easing a little now in Amberley, skies lighter and drops smaller. Still plenty of them though! 45mm so far.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Chris W »

What was the total in March 2014? Estimations went over 150mm as below, I recall hearing something around 175mm but that may have been Lyttelton:

https://twitter.com/metservice/status/4 ... 8417579008

I don't recall the July 2017 event in any detail.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Chris W wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 14:05 What was the total in March 2014? Estimations went over 150mm as below, I recall hearing something around 175mm but that may have been Lyttelton:

https://twitter.com/metservice/status/4 ... 8417579008

I don't recall the July 2017 event in any detail.
Looks like that 161 was in Oamaru in July 2017... maybe the 2014 event was the chch record?
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by JP. »

snowchaser01 wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 14:00
JP. wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 13:56 Does anyone know what the 24 hour rainfall record is for Christchurch City?
161.2mm in July 2017 I beleive.. if the stars align tonight we may get close to that.. maybe. But I doubt it
Think that was 48 hours, or Friday to Sunday. Found this online for that 2017 event

"Christchurch airport weather station recorded 88.6 mm in 24 hours to 22 July. Christchurch normally sees a total of 64.7 mm for the whole of July."

I believe the march 2014 event totals for 24 hours were more or close to the above. Jeffs at Hoon hay had 102mm over 48 hours for the 5th/6th March 2014 event
Last edited by JP. on Wed 15/12/2021 14:14, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by Razor »

Chris W wrote: Wed 15/12/2021 14:05 What was the total in March 2014? Estimations went over 150mm as below, I recall hearing something around 175mm but that may have been Lyttelton:

https://twitter.com/metservice/status/4 ... 8417579008

I don't recall the July 2017 event in any detail.
Thread from here for the 2014 event viewtopic.php?t=5160&start=125

And the 2017 one viewtopic.php?t=5692&start=225

You can probably guess its a slow work day here
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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

Unread post by JP. »

I remember the March 2014 event well, my parents live just off riverlaw terrace and it was under waist deep water at the end. There is a chance this may produce more for this event tonight. Very worrying
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