Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec

[Razor]

Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?

[Cantab03]

Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?

I would agree with that based on radar movement. Most of it will sit out at sea to the south of Banks Peninsula overnight.

[snowchaser01]

Up to 84mm in my gauge now in Northwood

[ScottyD]

I see we do have slips on the road near us, after 130mm over 3 days

Very similar numbers to what I’ve recorded over the last 3 days in East Auckland.

[Thunder081]

In Halswell chch

Sent from my TA-1054 using Tapatalk

[Richard]

Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?

Eased here and is looking much brighter to the north.
Ended up with 46mm here

[einzack]

Much heavier these last couple hours in Rolleston.
Had 23mm total at 6pm, and now up to 50mm before 8pm.
Some impressive numbers north of Chch.

[Chris W]

Eased right up now in Lyttelton. Amazing change in dynamics and explains why the modeling was so variable at times.

Edit - it has intensified again but the back edge is not far away.

[Lawrence]

Absolutely chucking it down here in Kirwee. Doesn't seem to be letting up as well. Rain rates getting near 10mm an hour.

[Tuppence]

So far for this event 60mm of rain in Rakaia township as at 9pm this evening.

[Tuppence]

Dry Creek is in flood as per usual with the heavy rain events this year. Will be interesting to see what daylight brings for road conditions in the district tomorrow with this event.

[Razor]

We dodged a bullet here in town. Main rain band is through hours earlier than predicted. Phew. 45mm here in Halswell with mabe 5-10 more until mid morning tomorrow by the looks. Interersting how northern parts of Christchurch have had up to double this amount

[Blowy]

Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)

[snowchaser01]

We dodged a bullet here in town. Main rain band is through hours earlier than predicted. Phew. 45mm here in Halswell with mabe 5-10 more until mid morning tomorrow by the looks. Interersting how northern parts of Christchurch have had up to double this amount

Yep touched 90mm in my gauge... very decent numbers

[TonyT]

Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)

Oh come on dude, play the ball not the man.

[Razor]

Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)

Oh come on dude, play the ball not the man.

With you Tony, forecasters and models did pretty well given the variables in this event. It was always going to be a matter of where, not all!

[Blowy]

'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?

[Cantab03]

55mm in my neck of the woods. Christchurch Airport collecting 66mm from the event so far. Looking at some of the images from late last night, especially with the Avon River, we definitely dodged a bullet from that rain not lingering overnight. This morning steady rain/drizzle has come back with some pockets of heavier rain mixed in. Perhaps another 10-15mm throughout the day and then another spell tomorrow. Grass was especially brown in the early stages of November but the complere reverse now, everything looking nice and lush!

[snowchaser01]

96 in my gauge this morning... and counting. Might 110mm for the event today?

[TonyT]

'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?

Mate, you are so far wrong that it embarrasses you. And it insults me. Forecasters have many ideas on how to forecast these events and put them into practice every day, all around the world. That doesn't meant the events themselves are always predicted well, but thats because inherent in the nature of many aspects of the atmosphere is a degree of unpredictability. Forecasters have techniques for dealing with that too, but also a measure of realism about their own limitations. Feel free to observe and discuss the limitations of forecasting, and the extent to which certain events are harder to predict well than others, but lay off putting the boot into the people whose jobs it is to do that.

And don't be a coward and say that its "just an observation". It was a criticism of a group of people, and you can expect to be called out on it as such. If it was an observation you would have queried the prediction, not the predictors.

This forum has lost too many professionals as a result of childish comments like yours.

[Bradley]

'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?

Mate, you are so far wrong that it embarrasses you. And it insults me. Forecasters have many ideas on how to forecast these events and put them into practice every day, all around the world. That doesn't meant the events themselves are always predicted well, but thats because inherent in the nature of many aspects of the atmosphere is a degree of unpredictability. Forecasters have techniques for dealing with that too, but also a measure of realism about their own limitations. Feel free to observe and discuss the limitations of forecasting, and the extent to which certain events are harder to predict well than others, but lay off putting the boot into the people whose jobs it is to do that.

And don't be a coward and say that its "just an observation". It was a criticism of a group of people, and you can expect to be called out on it as such. If it was an observation you would have queried the prediction, not the predictors.

This forum has lost too many professionals as a result of childish comments like yours.

Your forecast of approx 70mm for Christchurch on your livestream was spot on Tony, Metservice got it badly wrong but it was a tough system to forecast but you are definitely the one to listen to in these events, not Metservice. That’s just an opinion I’ve formed from the last 5 years based on observations of your forecasts

[Chris W]

With you Tony, it was a very variable event model-wise and as we saw a subtle shift in the actual dynamics produced a major change in the outcome late yesterday. MS initially went for 100-160mm for the city (showing the variability in potential outcomes) - parts of town will be in that range if gauges on this forum are a guide - and there was surface flooding and road damage on local roads as well as highways as well as dangerous driving conditions. So I'd say forecasters did well, if not nailing it 100%.

[Razor]

Thanks Tony 100% support your comments and summary above. Criticism should be constructive and considered, and backed up with evidence, not a lazy one liner

[Razor]

Tipping down here in Lincoln this morning, its actually wetter here than yesterday was. Seems to be a good avenue of intensity going through the middle of the Port Hills too, more rain this morning than expected thats for sure- 35mm in Bowenvale Valley for eg today so far on top of 67mm yesterday

[Cantab03]

Yes the rain is back and very steady in town.