Tropical Cyclone Cody

[Nev]

Fiji Met issued their first advisory for the developing low between Fiji and Vanuatu this arvo and expect it to be named by tomorrow...

[Awhituobs]

this developing TC to our north is one to watch

[jamie]

this developing TC to our north is one to watch

Yea EC and GFS both showing a weird approach to hawks bay but only tease. Jeez I hope over the course of the next week it shift west on a forecasted track.


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[Nev]

Yes, GFS and EC now more in line for at least a close shave with East Cape... still early days though...

[Nev]

JTWC now calling it a TC, yet they also currently only show 30 knot 1-minute max winds?

[Blowy]

Hawks Bay?
Cody could be the earliest ever Cat 5 in Southern Hemisphere
Something to chew on .... as an óutlier'

[Nev]

Flaring to the east of the low's LLCC near Fiji has increased in recent hours. Dry air entrainment has been hindering development of its core convection today, but that may temporarily ease during the next day or two...

[Nev]

Thought this TC might warrant its own thread...

TC Cody was named by Fiji Met this morning.

[TonyT]

The 12Z ECMWF spaghetti is interesting

image.png

[Nev]

Yes, interesting that JTWC seem to be primarily basing their track-map on the North American ensembles this time round, which is a little unusual...

[Nev]

Cody looking more symmetrical today, but still struggling a little with dry air and a partially exposed LLCC. Central pressure down to 992 hPa with 40 knot max winds.

[Awhituobs]

model runs still has it impacting east coat NI significantly

[Ash]

Big waves for surfers, one to keep an eye on for Hawkes Bay residents.

[TonyT]

Both GFS and ECMWF showing very similar spaghetti plots from their 12Z runs. Impacts for NZ looking increasingly likely.

image.png

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[Nev]

Yes, as Cody gets closer to NZ it should turn more SSW. Slight improvement in convection in the last few hours. Cody had weakened a little overnight with convection sheared to the SE, partially exposing its LLCC. Central pressure currently 994 hPa and 40 kt max winds.

[Awhituobs]

models are coming into more agreement with it affecting more of the North Island now
could be significant

[Ash]

Could be? Looks like a decent whack for the East Coast.

[Blowy]

Yes indeed... as called by the errrr 'outlier' gfs a week ago...hmmm

[Nev]

Yes indeed... as called by the errrr 'outlier' gfs a week ago...hmmm

GFS didn't start showing any Impact with NZ until Friday, and EC began showing something similar on Saturday. Still early days though.

And as for all your other silly 'fake news' claims like, 'Cody could be the earliest ever Cat 5 in Southern Hemisphere', apart from there never being any chance that Cody could get anywhere near Cat 5, numerous Cat 5 TC's have occurred in the Southern Hemisphere in December, including TC Yasa, which devastated Fiji last season. 'DYOR'.

[Nev]

TC Cody was upgraded to Cat 2 by Fiji Met this evening as conditions become a little more favourable. Central pressure down to 986 hPa, with max winds of 50 knots.

[TonyT]

Latest ensemble runs are tightening the cone of impact towards the North Island.

gfs-ensemble-05s-1641859200-1859200.png

ecmwf-bufr-05p-1641859200-1859200.png

[Awhituobs]

I dont think the models are doing a very realistic job on where they think the rain bands will end up associated with the ex TC
often the rain bands do a split, east and west (baroclinic zones). and areas directly to the south get less rain
i.e so Auckland and northland might get some rain from the western hemisphere rain bands?

[Nev]

Cody looking a little more organised overnight with deeping convection tightly wrapping into a large exposed LLCC. Fiji Met have central pressure down to 981 hPa with 55 knot max winds, although JTWC have wind speeds a little lower.

[Nev]

Severe TC Cody has been upgraded to Cat 3 by Fiji Met. Central pressure down to 975 hPa with 70 knot max winds.

[Nev]

Cody downgraded back to Cat 2 overnight. Central pressure 985 hPa, with 50 knot max winds, which is more in line with JTWC. Looking a little more disorganised this morning, with convection currently sheared to the SE of its LLCC...