Tropical Cyclone Cody

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
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Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Fiji Met issued their first advisory for the developing low between Fiji and Vanuatu this arvo and expect it to be named by tomorrow...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by Awhituobs »

this developing TC to our north is one to watch
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by jamie »

Awhituobs wrote:this developing TC to our north is one to watch
Yea EC and GFS both showing a weird approach to hawks bay but only tease. Jeez I hope over the course of the next week it shift west on a forecasted track.


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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, GFS and EC now more in line for at least a close shave with East Cape... still early days though...
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC now calling it a TC, yet they also currently only show 30 knot 1-minute max winds?
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by Blowy »

Hawks Bay?
Cody could be the earliest ever Cat 5 in Southern Hemisphere
Something to chew on .... as an óutlier' ;-)
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Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2021-22

Unread post by Nev »

Flaring to the east of the low's LLCC near Fiji has increased in recent hours. Dry air entrainment has been hindering development of its core convection today, but that may temporarily ease during the next day or two...
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Thought this TC might warrant its own thread... :-)

TC Cody was named by Fiji Met this morning.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by TonyT »

The 12Z ECMWF spaghetti is interesting
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, interesting that JTWC seem to be primarily basing their track-map on the North American ensembles this time round, which is a little unusual... :-k
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Cody looking more symmetrical today, but still struggling a little with dry air and a partially exposed LLCC. Central pressure down to 992 hPa with 40 knot max winds.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Awhituobs »

model runs still has it impacting east coat NI significantly
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Ash »

Big waves for surfers, one to keep an eye on for Hawkes Bay residents.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by TonyT »

Both GFS and ECMWF showing very similar spaghetti plots from their 12Z runs. Impacts for NZ looking increasingly likely.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, as Cody gets closer to NZ it should turn more SSW. Slight improvement in convection in the last few hours. Cody had weakened a little overnight with convection sheared to the SE, partially exposing its LLCC. Central pressure currently 994 hPa and 40 kt max winds.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Awhituobs »

models are coming into more agreement with it affecting more of the North Island now
could be significant
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Ash »

Could be? Looks like a decent whack for the East Coast.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Blowy »

Yes indeed... as called by the errrr 'outlier' gfs a week ago...hmmm
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Blowy wrote: Tue 11/01/2022 17:56 Yes indeed... as called by the errrr 'outlier' gfs a week ago...hmmm
GFS didn't start showing any Impact with NZ until Friday, and EC began showing something similar on Saturday. Still early days though.

And as for all your other silly 'fake news' claims like, 'Cody could be the earliest ever Cat 5 in Southern Hemisphere', apart from there never being any chance that Cody could get anywhere near Cat 5, numerous Cat 5 TC's have occurred in the Southern Hemisphere in December, including TC Yasa, which devastated Fiji last season. 'DYOR'.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

TC Cody was upgraded to Cat 2 by Fiji Met this evening as conditions become a little more favourable. Central pressure down to 986 hPa, with max winds of 50 knots.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by TonyT »

Latest ensemble runs are tightening the cone of impact towards the North Island.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Awhituobs »

I dont think the models are doing a very realistic job on where they think the rain bands will end up associated with the ex TC
often the rain bands do a split, east and west (baroclinic zones). and areas directly to the south get less rain
i.e so Auckland and northland might get some rain from the western hemisphere rain bands?
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Cody looking a little more organised overnight with deeping convection tightly wrapping into a large exposed LLCC. Fiji Met have central pressure down to 981 hPa with 55 knot max winds, although JTWC have wind speeds a little lower.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Severe TC Cody has been upgraded to Cat 3 by Fiji Met. Central pressure down to 975 hPa with 70 knot max winds.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone Cody

Unread post by Nev »

Cody downgraded back to Cat 2 overnight. Central pressure 985 hPa, with 50 knot max winds, which is more in line with JTWC. Looking a little more disorganised this morning, with convection currently sheared to the SE of its LLCC...
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