NZ Weather Forum

Cyclone Cody expected to impact New Zealand from Sunday into early next week

A large ridge of high pressure spreads northeast across the country during Thursday and persists through to Saturday, bringing mostly settled weather.

Cyclone Cody is expected to approach the waters to the northeast of New Zealand this coming weekend. Current forecast tracks of the Cyclone have it moving southwards to affect mainly the eastern parts of the North Island from late Sunday through into Monday, possibly bringing significant impacts to these areas. There remains some uncertainty regarding it's movement and even small changes in the track may mean imspacts could vary from place to place.

For Gisborne, there is HIGH confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria from late Sunday into Monday, and severe gales in exposed places. For Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay, there is MODERATE confidence of warning amounts of rainfall and winds reaching severe gale in exposed places. For areas further west, that is, Northland, Auckland, Waikato, parts of the central high country, Wairarapa and the Kaikoura Coast and Ranges, there is LOW confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday and severe gale winds.

In addition to heavy rain and strong winds, Cyclone Cody is expected to bring significant easterly swells, sea surges/rips and coastal inundation to the east coast areas from Saturday onwards.

Cyclone CODY expected to impact central and northern New Zealand from late Sunday into early next week

A large ridge of high pressure over New Zealand slowly moves eastward on Saturday. Cyclone CODY is forecast to approach the waters north of the North Island overnight Sunday and slowly move southwards to make landfall over northern New Zealand overnight Sunday or Monday morning.

At this stage, CODY is expected to make landfall over the Bay of Plenty. If the projected path of CODY from late Sunday and on Monday is correct then gale to storm force winds are expected to affect a large portion of northern and eastern North Island and the upper South Island, resulting in large easterly swells, significant sea surges/rips and coastal inundation about exposed eastern coastlines. This cyclone is also accompanied by a tropical airmass bringing heavy rain to many parts of central and northern New Zealand, with potentially torrential rain for the east of the North Island.

For Bay of Plenty east of Whakatane, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay there is HIGH confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria from late Sunday into Monday, and severe gales in exposed places. For Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, the remainder of Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Taihape and Wairarapa there is MODERATE confidence of warning amounts of rain and winds reaching severe gale in exposed places. For areas further west, that is, Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taranaki, Whanganui to Wellington and also Marlborough, there is LOW confidence of warning amounts of rain and severe gale winds from overnight Sunday and on Monday.

For Nelson and Buller, there is low confidence of east to southeast winds approaching severe gale in exposed places on Monday.

Please note, there remains some uncertainty regarding the actual track of Cyclone CODY, and the area that is going to be most impacted by this system and even small changes in the track may mean impacts could vary from place to place. Expert Meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation and people are advised to stay up to date with latest severe weather watches or warnings which will be issued this Friday.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 16:21 Purely a gut feeling - I just feel like this has carnage written all over it. People still holidaying/camping, the typical kiwi she’ll be right attitude. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

Ash wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 16:56 Gosh, it sure looks intense in the models. Very cautious in Hawkes Bay of this one.

Ash wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 20:40 Been watching models long enough now to know this look like a doozy of a storm for Hawkes Bay if the models predictions hold true. I agree with Tony, although one risks being laughed at for being a bit of a 'Noah'.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places

David wrote:

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places

Yes, just 9mm here in the last 30 days now

La Nina not delivering the goods so far...

TonyT wrote: ↑Thu 13/01/2022 20:55 A marked shift eastwards in the ECMWF ensemble since the last run, but the GFS yet to see that. If it takes the more easterly path that should reduce the area of NZ likely to be affected by gales, and potentially reduce the rainfall intensity along the east coast, and shrink the extent of the heavy rain. So all round a positive development.