NZ Weather Forum

Yes indeed, more and more tendency for a progression further east than models initially first run.

EC has hardly any precip affecting Waikato and BOP, while NCEP has a bit more with the system trending closer than EC.
It needs to be said the even though EC is good model, the UKMO and NCEP models are much more aligned and in agreement than EC is.

Acum Precip charts for reference:

12Z ensemble prognostic output compared to GFS and GEPS:

Current GFS keeps Auckland sunny and dry with the more easterly track now.

GFS ensemble now well aligned with EC ensemble for a miss to the east.

its a gone burger

A shame in one respect as so many ppl need the rain from it.

Yea the big D word won’t be far from being thrown around.


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Metservice heavy rain watch for eastern North Island areas was cancelled this morning, looking like an almost total miss except for some potential strong winds.