Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

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Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Thought I'd start a new thread specific to NZ

A traverse of the NI looks increasingly likely....

Total precipitation to midnight Monday from the 12Z operational run of the ECMWF (which has the ex-TC centre just skimming over East Cape, and not traversing the NI as many of the ensemble members show). Totals are high for the east of the NI but not extreme. Of course, as the ensembles show, there is a wide potential variation...
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Interestingly the 18Z GFS ensemble has all members showing either a landfall or (increasingly) a passage into the eastern Tasman Sea, none now showing a "miss" out to the east of the country. The mean path is being dragged westwards by the Tasman Sea group, while the most favoured path looks like eastern Bay of Plenty through Hawkes Bay. 48 hour rainfall totals to midnight Monday (from the operational) significant but only extreme in northern Gisborne (note inches, not mm).
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

often when a TC goes ex tropical
the rain bands split into 2 halves, west and east
i.e so upper NI could still get usefull rain
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by David »

Latest from Metservice severe weather outlook:
Cyclone Cody expected to impact New Zealand from Sunday into early next week

A large ridge of high pressure spreads northeast across the country during Thursday and persists through to Saturday, bringing mostly settled weather.

Cyclone Cody is expected to approach the waters to the northeast of New Zealand this coming weekend. Current forecast tracks of the Cyclone have it moving southwards to affect mainly the eastern parts of the North Island from late Sunday through into Monday, possibly bringing significant impacts to these areas. There remains some uncertainty regarding it's movement and even small changes in the track may mean imspacts could vary from place to place.

For Gisborne, there is HIGH confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria from late Sunday into Monday, and severe gales in exposed places. For Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay, there is MODERATE confidence of warning amounts of rainfall and winds reaching severe gale in exposed places. For areas further west, that is, Northland, Auckland, Waikato, parts of the central high country, Wairarapa and the Kaikoura Coast and Ranges, there is LOW confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday and severe gale winds.

In addition to heavy rain and strong winds, Cyclone Cody is expected to bring significant easterly swells, sea surges/rips and coastal inundation to the east coast areas from Saturday onwards.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Ash »

Well, it looks to be a stormy day on Monday.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Both models' 0Z ensemble runs are seeing more tracks west of the NI into the eastern Tasman, and so the ensemble mean track (the black line on the spaghetti plots) is shifting westwards. While the best guess at this time remains a southerly crossing through Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay, the odds on a track across Northland and re-curving back southeastwards across Cook Strait are getting more favourable. That may become the preferred track in a few days time.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by spwill »

Bad news for a lot of camping grounds.
We tend to be quite well sheltered here in central Auckland on an E/SE flow but catch the southwesterly. High tide might be something to watch for very low lying areas.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

late sunday and mainly monday is the impact days
hopefully at least get rain here
can do without any wind damage though
yes, I would not want to be a in tent in campground on an exposed coast even if only 40 kt winds
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

!2Z ensemble runs are hardly changed.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by mikechamble »

Metservice have provided an update, looks like they're expecting it to track through the North Island more than originally thought
Cyclone CODY expected to impact central and northern New Zealand from late Sunday into early next week

A large ridge of high pressure over New Zealand slowly moves eastward on Saturday. Cyclone CODY is forecast to approach the waters north of the North Island overnight Sunday and slowly move southwards to make landfall over northern New Zealand overnight Sunday or Monday morning.

At this stage, CODY is expected to make landfall over the Bay of Plenty. If the projected path of CODY from late Sunday and on Monday is correct then gale to storm force winds are expected to affect a large portion of northern and eastern North Island and the upper South Island, resulting in large easterly swells, significant sea surges/rips and coastal inundation about exposed eastern coastlines. This cyclone is also accompanied by a tropical airmass bringing heavy rain to many parts of central and northern New Zealand, with potentially torrential rain for the east of the North Island.

For Bay of Plenty east of Whakatane, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay there is HIGH confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria from late Sunday into Monday, and severe gales in exposed places. For Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, the remainder of Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Taihape and Wairarapa there is MODERATE confidence of warning amounts of rain and winds reaching severe gale in exposed places. For areas further west, that is, Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taranaki, Whanganui to Wellington and also Marlborough, there is LOW confidence of warning amounts of rain and severe gale winds from overnight Sunday and on Monday.

For Nelson and Buller, there is low confidence of east to southeast winds approaching severe gale in exposed places on Monday.

Please note, there remains some uncertainty regarding the actual track of Cyclone CODY, and the area that is going to be most impacted by this system and even small changes in the track may mean impacts could vary from place to place. Expert Meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation and people are advised to stay up to date with latest severe weather watches or warnings which will be issued this Friday.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

First Watches (and or Warnings) will be issued by Metservice by 1PM tomorrow.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Purely a gut feeling - I just feel like this has carnage written all over it. People still holidaying/camping, the typical kiwi she’ll be right attitude. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

darcyplumb wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 16:21 Purely a gut feeling - I just feel like this has carnage written all over it. People still holidaying/camping, the typical kiwi she’ll be right attitude. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
The dynamics of the zone its forecast to be moving into over the NI are not great for enhancing the system itself, in fact I suspect they will weaken it. So its the orographic effects (interaction with the landscape) which will determine how strong winds get and how heavy rainfall gets. I suspect it will move through quite quickly which will help lessen potential problems. But its still a system to be wary of, for sure.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Ash »

Gosh, it sure looks intense in the models. Very cautious in Hawkes Bay of this one.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by harleyb »

Folk in Haumoana will be watching that swell forecast with concern. Fortunately it's not coinciding with spring tides, but even without spring tides a swell that large could cause problems there.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Ash wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 16:56 Gosh, it sure looks intense in the models. Very cautious in Hawkes Bay of this one.
You have a couple of days to pay attention to the obvious - clear gutters & drains, tie down loose items, pack a bug-out bag and find your cat cage in case of evacuations, etc etc. Once you've done that, go see your neighbours and encourage them to do the same.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Ash »

Been watching models long enough now to know this look like a doozy of a storm for Hawkes Bay if the models predictions hold true. I agree with Tony, although one risks being laughed at for being a bit of a 'Noah'.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

A marked shift eastwards in the ECMWF ensemble since the last run, but the GFS yet to see that. If it takes the more easterly path that should reduce the area of NZ likely to be affected by gales, and potentially reduce the rainfall intensity along the east coast, and shrink the extent of the heavy rain. So all round a positive development.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

but we want the rain in many places
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Ash wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 20:40 Been watching models long enough now to know this look like a doozy of a storm for Hawkes Bay if the models predictions hold true. I agree with Tony, although one risks being laughed at for being a bit of a 'Noah'.
Nowt wrong with that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3oracbQLc
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places
An interesting ethical dilemma that. I guess we just have to trust Huey to work it all out for the best...
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by David »

Awhituobs wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places
Yes, just 9mm here in the last 30 days now :(

La Nina not delivering the goods so far...
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by jamie »

David wrote:
Awhituobs wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 20:56 but we want the rain in many places
Yes, just 9mm here in the last 30 days now :(

La Nina not delivering the goods so far...
Yea I think I’m about 4mm in the past 30 days with record high temps. If we don’t get rain from this I’m very worried what conditions will turn into.


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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by Ash »

TonyT wrote: Thu 13/01/2022 20:55 A marked shift eastwards in the ECMWF ensemble since the last run, but the GFS yet to see that. If it takes the more easterly path that should reduce the area of NZ likely to be affected by gales, and potentially reduce the rainfall intensity along the east coast, and shrink the extent of the heavy rain. So all round a positive development.
Cleaner conditions for surfers.
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Re: Ex-TC Cody - impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Edit - 12Z ECMWF map attached

The ECMWF spaghetti plot and the 12Z operational run showing a clear "miss" out to the east, and the 12Z GFS ensemble is now edging closer to that idea also. Its looking increasingly possible the east coast MAY dodge the bullet, but the west will stay drier than some wanted it to be.
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