NZ Weather Forum

A warm, humid, and unsettled first week of February lies ahead, with some potential for areas of heavy rain in central parts of the country late in the week.

An absolute soaking for parts the South Island later in the week, particularly Westland.

The ridge hangs on here.

The rainfall totals keeps increasing too.

Richard wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 13:33 The rainfall totals keeps increasing too.

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Current guidance is VERY widely spread between models for North Canterbury - ranging from 15mm by next weekend via AccessG to 143mm via Icon. Thats a sure sign that models are having a hard time evolving the current patterns.

At this stage looking like rain Wednesday night for inland Otago? but more Canterbury for the weekend rain?
Getting very dry around Alex to Queenstown.

Andy wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 14:45 At this stage looking like rain Wednesday night for inland Otago? but more Canterbury for the weekend rain?
Getting very dry around Alex to Queenstown.

10-15mm possible in the east, 15-25mm in the west. But models are having a hard time getting consistency so still pretty uncertain at the moment.

TonyT wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 16:01

Andy wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 14:45 At this stage looking like rain Wednesday night for inland Otago? but more Canterbury for the weekend rain?
Getting very dry around Alex to Queenstown.

10-15mm possible in the east, 15-25mm in the west. But models are having a hard time getting consistency so still pretty uncertain at the moment.

Thanks Tony

Been keeping an eye on this one...just cancelled my long weekend camping trip for the South Canterbury foothills

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Warm night with 20.7C min.

This morning’s GFS might be the highest rain projection I’ve ever seen for here, over 450mm from the 6th to the 9th

Obviously not to be taken seriously but nice to see some rain showing up though!

Dean. wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 19:23 Been keeping an eye on this one...just cancelled my long weekend camping trip for the South Canterbury foothills

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Was going to go to the West Coast, not now.

Met Service have a very warm night Wednesday/Thursday for around here with mid 20's overnight min.

Keeping an eye on next week for rain here, very moist air on the way.

Dean. wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 19:23 Been keeping an eye on this one...just cancelled my long weekend camping trip for the South Canterbury foothills

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I have advised my friends who are planning to head to Lake Heron for the long weekend to reconsider. That gorge road between Mt Somers and the Heron turn off is still very vulnerable after the May/June 2021 flood event.

GFS run this morning is showing biblical rainfall for large parts of the north island. I hope it’s a sign that rain is actually on its way. Even just 10% of what it’s currently forecasting would be good.


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darcyplumb wrote: ↑Tue 01/02/2022 08:57

Dean. wrote: ↑Sun 30/01/2022 19:23 Been keeping an eye on this one...just cancelled my long weekend camping trip for the South Canterbury foothills

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I have advised my friends who are planning to head to Lake Heron for the long weekend to reconsider. That gorge road between Mt Somers and the Heron turn off is still very vulnerable after the May/June 2021 flood event.

Yes would not be much fun with EC predicting 150mm for the area...eases up Sunday so we may go up for a fish if the roads stay open

jamie wrote:GFS run this morning is showing biblical rainfall for large parts of the north island. I hope it’s a sign that rain is actually on its way. Even just 10% of what it’s currently forecasting would be good.


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Check out the rainfall numbers from the 1958 flood, something like it has happened in Feb before.

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jamie wrote: ↑Tue 01/02/2022 09:08 GFS run this morning is showing biblical rainfall for large parts of the north island. I hope it’s a sign that rain is actually on its way. Even just 10% of what it’s currently forecasting would be good.


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Current guidance for Hamilton is interesting. By midday Monday the range is from 2.8mm via AccessG, through 41mm via ECMWF, to 73mm via GFS, with GEM close to the GFS. However, from next Tuesday onwards the GFS and GEM both push on to reach 250-290mm by next Friday, while the others add nothing. A lot is going to ride on where this weak TC moves to, and what that brings to the NI in terms of precipitable water by the end of next week.

Meanwhile, for North Canterbury the UKMO has finally got off the mark with 5mm expected by Sunday night, compared with 21mm via Icon, 50mm via GFS and AccessG, and 100mm via ECMWF. Totals for Mid Canterbury are similarly diverse. I can imagine a lot of head scratching in Kelburn at present as their favoured model (UKMO) is very much an outlier at the moment.

jamie wrote: ↑Tue 01/02/2022 09:08 GFS run this morning is showing biblical rainfall for large parts of the north island. I hope it’s a sign that rain is actually on its way. Even just 10% of what it’s currently forecasting would be good.

Just posting this up for future reference, the current GFS prognostic is beyond belief.
As Tony mentioned, the models are really struggling atm, lots and lots of flip flopping.

So take every model run and model with a considerable amount of salt and look at the overall pattern rather than the specifics.

Tornado Tim wrote: ↑Tue 01/02/2022 11:12
As Tony mentioned, the models are really struggling atm, lots and lots of flip flopping.

Agree 100% with the struggling comment. Just to clarify my thinking (and no way intended as a dig at your comment Tim ), I'm seeing the opposite of "flip-flopping" - each model is being very consistent in its interpretation from run to run, and has been over several days. Its the variation BETWEEN models which is wide, not the variation FROM run to run.

Note: Have started a new thread for the West Coast/ Southern Alps event which is now RED warned by metservice

TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 01/02/2022 10:37 I can imagine a lot of head scratching in Kelburn at present as their favoured model (UKMO) is very much an outlier at the moment.

Some are in Kelburn and the rest are in Seabridge House in Wellingtons CBD, Paraparaumu and Auckland. The Kelburn Metservice office is getting a big makeover.

Been sitting around 27deg all afternoon, sure has that tropical feeling now with that NE wind

Skies are quite turbulent looking tonight in Ashburton. Has a weak mammatus look to it. Very warm and humid as well - feels like it will be this way all night.

The EC model has finally come into line with GFS ,a more modest 40mm for the 10 days here in Mid Canterbury

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A wee question for the Hivemind here...
...a friend is planning to swim accross Lake Pukaki this weekend. Looking at the maps and models I'm struggling to give him a lead steer on the better conditions, seems a bit of a lottery for that area this weekend?

Overcast day day with extensive midrange As layers. Light Northerlies. Layer thinning this afternoon allowing weak sunshine to penetrate, rising the temperature to 25.1C for today's maximum . Cloud thickening again this afternoon with some mammatus in the NW Arch.
Some light rain this evening.