Nothing wrong with lighting the fuse - maybe it all comes down to ‘spillover’ rain being a forecaster’s nightmare?
2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Rain gauge emptied at 4pm today... will see what I have in the morning. I'm predicting 60mm
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Wed 09/02/2022 19:37 - maybe it all comes down to ‘spillover’ rain being a forecaster’s nightmare?
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Is it really spillover when there's a substantial NE component to this which is largely unaffected by the mountains? It isn't a norwester.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Interesting question, collect your $200 and pass go. I would say, if you look at the animated rain radar you can pretty clearly see the rain is arriving over Canterbury from upstream of the ranges, so by that definition we could call it "spill over". But its not frontal, its from broad instability uplift (for want of a better phrase) us in a very deeply moist airflow. Either way, its a situation model guidance has often had some difficulty simulating well.
Edit - I wasn't very clear above, What I meant was, the rain is not generated by orographic uplift in a pre-frontal airflow with the moisture getting squeezed out by the front pushing every closer. Its happening as a result of a broad area of uplift due to cooling and instability in the deeply warm and moist airmass. I hope that makes more sense.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Really starting to set in now. Radar is very impressive
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Storm water system appears to be failing in Westport right now. Lots of comments on the Buller Emergency Management Facebook page of people’s houses surrounded by water, some with water coming up through the floor.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Fingers are toes crossed for all those in Buller. They really have had a bad few weeks of this.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
This unstable 'deep warm and moist airmass' as Tony described it delivered 52.4mm of rain overnight. The nearby river can clearly be heard so its in reasonable flood.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
West Coast rivers are up quite a bit this morning. Much higher than the red warning the other day. https://envirodata.wcrc.govt.nz/dashboa ... vels.php#1
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
and with more rain to come from the trough being activated more by the TC dropping into the tasman
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
I see a pws in Reefton recorded 175mm in the 24hrs from 9am yesterday. That is a lot of rain and likely a record if the official amount is similar.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Stuff.co.nz reporting the buller river is at 11m high already. Look like the rain is beginning to ease in the town thankfully.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 07:24 West Coast rivers are up quite a bit this morning. Much higher than the red warning the other day. https://envirodata.wcrc.govt.nz/dashboa ... vels.php#1
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Yeah it’s not good at all over there. There’s lots of coverage on the Buller Emergency Management Facebook page. They’ve said that the rain they’ve had over the last 24 hours was significantly more than forecast.JP. wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 09:42Stuff.co.nz reporting the buller river is at 11m high already. Look like the rain is beginning to ease in the town thankfully.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 07:24 West Coast rivers are up quite a bit this morning. Much higher than the red warning the other day. https://envirodata.wcrc.govt.nz/dashboa ... vels.php#1
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
State of emergency declared again for Buller. They are asking residents of Westport to self evacuate now instead of waiting for mandatory evacuation orders.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Except there's nowhere to really go, the highways are all closed by slips etc.
https://www.facebook.com/BullerCD
https://www.facebook.com/BullerCD
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
It’s looking similar to July 2021 over there at the moment. Very sad. They’ve certainly been caught by surprise with this event. The ex TC is really going to add insult to injury.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
When everything is as wet as it is, you only need half the rain of the previous event to cause twice the problems. This has been discussed a lot over the last few days, except by the media.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 10:59 It’s looking similar to July 2021 over there at the moment. Very sad. They’ve certainly been caught by surprise with this event. The ex TC is really going to add insult to injury.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Absolutely agree. However the wording from the Buller Emergency Management this morning suggests that they had no idea they were going to have any issues - the phrase under forecasted is being thrown around a lot. I don’t agree with it. I feel the impacts were underestimated by authorities.TonyT wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 11:01When everything is as wet as it is, you only need half the rain of the previous event to cause twice the problems. This has been discussed a lot over the last few days, except by the media.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 10:59 It’s looking similar to July 2021 over there at the moment. Very sad. They’ve certainly been caught by surprise with this event. The ex TC is really going to add insult to injury.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
The latest rainfall warranted "red warning" language around impacts, even if it was always going to be well short of "red warning" weather.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 11:06Absolutely agree. However the wording from the Buller Emergency Management this morning suggests that they had no idea they were going to have any issues - the phrase under forecasted is being thrown around a lot. I don’t agree with it. I feel the impacts were underestimated by authorities.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
I have friends visiting family over there, they arrived on Wednesday just as the worst set in. Currently they have just left their family house in Snodgrass Rd by Orowaiti Lagoon and have headed north for higher ground. They have people to stay with thankfully.
Looks like the rivers still have some way to rise too.
Looks like the rivers still have some way to rise too.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
High tide will be a big problem in a few hours. It also appears that the gauge on the Buller River at Te Kaha is out of action. I haven’t been able to access a reading since about 8am. It was just over 11m then.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
Yes, I think from memory the high peak in July 2021 was over 13m but this could eclipse that. Would love to know what the current reading at Te Kuha is.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 11:29 High tide will be a big problem in a few hours. It also appears that the gauge on the Buller River at Te Kaha is out of action. I haven’t been able to access a reading since about 8am. It was just over 11m then.
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Re: 2nd February Heavy Rain Event 9th to the 12th.
I can’t even access it on the NIWA site now so it must be a gauge issue rather than an issue with the WCRC website.JP. wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 11:39Yes, I think from memory the high peak in July 2021 was over 13m but this could eclipse that. Would love to know what the current reading at Te Kuha is.darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 11:29 High tide will be a big problem in a few hours. It also appears that the gauge on the Buller River at Te Kaha is out of action. I haven’t been able to access a reading since about 8am. It was just over 11m then.