NZ Weather Forum

JTWC and Fiji Met today upgraded the chances of a developing tropical low currently between Vanuatu and New Caledonia of becoming a TC in the next 24 hours to medium.

Nev wrote: ↑Mon 07/02/2022 19:54 JTWC and Fiji Met today upgraded the chances of a developing tropical low currently between Vanuatu and New Caledonia of becoming a TC in the next 24 hours to medium.

One to keep an eye on.

sure is
GFS likes it big time

Organisation of our tropical low near New Caledonia has improved a little today as it moves into a slightly more favourable environment. Fiji Met have upgraded its chances of becoming a TC in the next 24-48 hours as moderate to high.

An meantime the latest GFS one seems the be the first to move it west away from NZ- and into the mid Tasman Sea.

lets see how the next runs and other models shape up

JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert this afternoon. Good persistent deep convection to the north starting to wrap around LLCC, moderate shear and good poleward outflow, 998 hPa, SST's around 28-29C.

First track map and Advisory from Fiji met. Max winds of 30 kt, and a central pressure of 993 hPa.

I see latest GFS run now brings things back into the North Island on the weekend.

MS prognosis as at this morning:


Tropical Cyclone Bulletin


Forecast to 1am Fri, 11 Feb (NZT)
Tropical low TD08F was was analysed between New Caledonia and Vanuatu, near 19S 167E at 7am this morning. Models indicate the system is in a favourable environment. The risk TD08F becoming a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and Thursday is HIGH and is expected to track over New Caledonia during Thursday.

No other significant lows expected.

Outlook to 1am Mon, 14 Feb (NZT)
Tropical low TD08F has a HIGH risk of deepening into a tropical cyclone by Friday and track quickly southwards past 25 degrees south. The system is then expected lose it's tropical characteristics while over the Tasman Sea during Saturday before moving towards New Zealand during Sunday.

No other significant lows expected.

Issued: 11:30am Wed, 9 Feb
The next bulletin will be issued by 1pm Thu, 10 Feb

increasingly likely there will be severe gales for NZ
check out the size of the circulating cloud bands starting to wrap around this thing
its going to be a big sized TC

and the M/S severe weather outlook has just been updated and mentions severe gales for NI

JTWC has upgraded our tropical low to a TC this afternoon (based on 1-minute max winds)...

18Z GFs is mulling over two scenarios - a passage over the northern half of the North Island, or a slow death in the eastern Tasman Sea.

TC Dovi was named by Fiji Met this evening. So thought it might warrant its own thread.

Convection a little sheared to the NW of its LLCC and some dry air to to the east. Outflow aloft also a little weak, but that should improve over the next day or two allowing some further intensification.

0z spaghetti for the pasta lovers. Guidance seems split between bolognaise and marinara at present.

TC Dovi appears to have expanded this morning and central convection has deepened.

12Z plots.
The Canadian is mainly interested in a slow writhing death spiral in the eastern Tasman. The GFS is committed to a passage across the North Island. And the ECMWF has given itself a headache by overthinking things, and can't decide between a NI pass, a recurve into the central Tasman, or a death spiral off Taranaki.
At this stage you would have to say that all cards are still on the table.

Updated track maps. Central pressure at 981 hPa.
Of course Dovi should be extratropical by the time it gets here, but still packing some serious winds...

Dovi starting to pick up speed now and is looking much more organised as it continues strengthen in a more favourable environment with less shear. JTWC suggesting it will reach Cat 3 by tomorrow night after clearing New Caledonia.

Nev wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 16:12 Dovi starting to pick up speed now and is looking much more organised as it continues strengthen in a more favourable environment with less shear. JTWC suggesting it will reach Cat 3 by tomorrow night after clearing New Caledonia.

Certainly going to be potent when it reaches NZ.

TC Dovi upgraded to Cat 2 by Fiji Met this evening. Central pressure 981 hPa. Max winds 50 kt. SST's 28C.
Has developed a nice ragged eye-like feature this afternoon.

0Z spaghetti

Canadian is having a bad hair day GFS is going for the shoulder length straight look with bangs attached And the ECMWF is parted right down the middle I'd be inclined to say its still not possible to produce a confident forecast, but it looks increasingly like a hit on the southern half of the NI.

its surprising the low rain totals expected for the upper NI
but I will guess the fact its already warm and humid air mass here, there is not going to much of a warm front develop
instead that is on the southern side/SE quarter
but surely we will get drizzle, especially on any ranges/hills

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Thu 10/02/2022 21:32 its surprising the low rain totals expected for the upper NI
but I will guess the fact its already warm and humid air mass here, there is not going to much of a warm front develop
instead that is on the southern side/SE quarter
but surely we will get drizzle, especially on any ranges/hills

Noticed the same, looks like barely anything for us rain wise unfortunately. Driving down through the countryside to Hunua today, it’s still very much a dry landscape

Severe TC Dovi was upgraded to Cat 3 by Fiji Met overnight, with max winds of at least 65 kts and central pressure down to 970 hPa. Dovi consolidated quickly as it tracked away from New Caledonia last night, with deep convection now completely encircling a ragged, elongated 45km wide eye. Cat 4 might even be a possibility in the the next 24 hrs.

Wow, projected to be sitting off Taranaki as a Cat 2? Interesting!