Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

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darcyplumb
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Appears to be falling directly over the Buller River catchment too.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

darcyplumb wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:28 Appears to be falling directly over the Buller River catchment too.
Yep a concerning situation. It seems this whole thing is significantly further south than forecast.
Edit: models had that rain band pretty much through the middle of cook strait... compare that to current radar images.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:30
darcyplumb wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:28 Appears to be falling directly over the Buller River catchment too.
Yep a concerning situation. It seems this whole thing is significantly further south than forecast.
Edit: models had that rain band pretty much through the middle of cook strait... compare that to current radar images.
I see Buller Emergency management said last night that they don’t expect the rainfall this weekend to cause flooding… surely they learned their lesson after the other day? I think that’s a very premature statement to make. That rain band is much further south than Cook Strait. I think this whole event could play out a lot differently than forecast and everyone in the potential impact areas need to be watching the conditions closely.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

darcyplumb wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:36
snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:30

Yep a concerning situation. It seems this whole thing is significantly further south than forecast.
Edit: models had that rain band pretty much through the middle of cook strait... compare that to current radar images.
I see Buller Emergency management said last night that they don’t expect the rainfall this weekend to cause flooding… surely they learned their lesson after the other day? I think that’s a very premature statement to make. That rain band is much further south than Cook Strait. I think this whole event could play out a lot differently than forecast and everyone in the potential impact areas need to be watching the conditions closely.
Agree completely. The fact that this is further south has obvious impacts for Buller, but also over here in Canterbury.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:38
darcyplumb wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:36
I see Buller Emergency management said last night that they don’t expect the rainfall this weekend to cause flooding… surely they learned their lesson after the other day? I think that’s a very premature statement to make. That rain band is much further south than Cook Strait. I think this whole event could play out a lot differently than forecast and everyone in the potential impact areas need to be watching the conditions closely.
Agree completely. The fact that this is further south has obvious impacts for Buller, but also over here in Canterbury.
I took Sunday off work to do firewood… I really should know better 😂
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

the heaviest rain is now moving into cook straight area, as predicted by the models
the rain north of West port on the radar looks to be from the baroclinic leaf cloud sheet, i.e high based, and so will not be the orographic onshore heavy rain type which would be bad , as the wind is SE in that area
onshore flow for north canterbury and Kaikoura looks like will be lots of rain , on the flip side
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Awhituobs wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:47 the heaviest rain is now moving into cook straight area, as predicted by the models
the rain north of West port on the radar looks to be from the baroclinic leaf cloud sheet, i.e high based, and so will not be the orographic onshore heavy rain type which would be bad , as the wind is SE in that area
onshore flow for north canterbury and Kaikoura looks like will be lots of rain , on the flip side
Yes, that looks to be backed up by only 3.5mm at Perry Saddle on the Heaphy track

I do think Buller is in for more rain than suggested earlier looking at the projections this morning now though, I imagine the folk at MS are analysing the hell out of things right now. I would be telling my Buller mates to be on standby for an uncertain couple of days with so much already haven fallen, not to mention severe wind likelihoods
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

She's pretty wet here in the ChCh right now, I'd call it sodden with thick persistent heavy drizzle and very still
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Razor wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 09:58 She's pretty wet here in the ChCh right now, I'd call it sodden with thick persistent heavy drizzle and very still
No rain down the road in Ashburton but very humid and overcast. Sky is lightening up a bit but I don’t expect it to clear.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Seeing in the latest Strong Wind Warnings that Auckland is probably going to experience gusts of up to 130 km/hr in the next 24 Hours.
Metservice wrote:Strong Wind Warning - Orange
Period:

18hrs from 10pm Sat, 12 Feb - 4pm Sun, 13 Feb
Area:

Auckland
Forecast:

North to northeast gales are forecast to be severe at times, with mean speeds of 80 km/h (and gusts of 100 km/h) till Sunday morning (Reduced criterion for northeast gales). Then southwest gales are forecast to be severe Sunday morning and afternoon, with gusts of 120 km/h, but briefly possibly 130 km/h. Upgraded to Orange Warning
Impact:

Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures. Driving may be hazardous, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.
The Auckland Harbour Bridge operator along with Auckland transport will most likely have to close or significantly or restrict flow to small cars, this is probably going to cause utter chaos to traffic as that high wind is going to be for hours!

I hope transport company's know about this risk and get as much through before hand.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris W »

Furious drizzle in Lyttelton since 8am. Feel like this will be the feature of most of the weekend for Chch.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris Raine »

I can see the outflow cloud(Cirrostratus) to the far northeast from my weather enclosure at 0900.Underneath we have an incoming cloud sheet from a weak feature that I hope will bring some showers today
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by David »

Storm warning for Waitemata harbour and Manukau harbour.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Richard »

No rain or drizzle here yet, just a mix of broken heavy low cloud and in the gaps higher level cloud is visible, both layers are looking threatening.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Richard »

Chris Raine wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 10:48 I can see the outflow cloud(Cirrostratus) to the far northeast from my weather enclosure at 0900.Underneath we have an incoming cloud sheet from a weak feature that I hope will bring some showers today
Hope you do get some Chris, certainly has been a summer of variables, from extreme high temperatures Dec NI and West Coast record temps just recently to a lack of extreme temps this side of the Island. As well as dry each end of NZ, wetter in the middle.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

From Counties Energy: Storm WARNING!!!
Hi all- updated forecast for today. MetService has advised us this is going to be a very significant event, likely to cause widespread damage throughout our entire area - particularly Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas. Please share this with those on our west coast and do your storm prep!!! This is likely to cause some power lines down with winds of up to 140km forecast! Specific forecast for our area -
Severe Weather Watch issued for WIND, SEVERE GALES late Sat night and throughout Sunday.
Saturday - 10pm to 2am Sun: N gusts 80km/hr, up to 100km/hr on west coast.
Sunday
2am-7am: Wind increases. Widespread gusts 80-100km/hr. 100-120km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
7am to 10am: Widespread area N gusts 100-120km/hr.
10am to 4pm: Most SEVERE PERIOD. Extreme W winds Frequent/Widespread gusts 120km/hr.
120-140km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
4pm to 6pm: Winds turn S and quickly drop off.

Our crews are ready. Please do your storm prep and prepare for potential power outages. If you're on tank/bore water save some today! Charge your devices and get the torches ready. For outage prep tips and what to do if the power goes out - www.countiesenergy.co.nz/outage-tips

Check the Outages Hub for 24/7 info on outages - type app.countiesenergy.co.nz in your smartphone internet browser. Download it now!

Stay well clear of downed lines and call us immediately on 0800 100 202.
Stay safe!
Last edited by Awhituobs on Sat 12/02/2022 14:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris W »

The weak southerly that will meet Dovi is bringing some small and heavier cells north through mid-Canterbury, fat drops and heavy in Lyttelton within the last hour or so. Little wind. It's quite nice to watch even if it means the weeds continue to grow!
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Latest GFS has bought it further south again. Some very decent rain for about Christchurch north on the east coast tonight
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Been running up in the Port Hills for a couple of hours. Constant thick heavy rain and drizzle the whole time. The trails are mini waterfalls/ rivers. Looks like a vigourous wee convergence zone going by the radar. I'd say some localised flooding issues in areas near the hills before too long
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Razor wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 16:34 Been running up in the Port Hills for a couple of hours. Constant thick heavy rain and drizzle the whole time. The trails are mini waterfalls/ rivers. Looks like a vigourous wee convergence zone going by the radar. I'd say some localised flooding issues in areas near the hills before too long
Yep some heavy falls in the outer suburbs too. Interested to see how far south the main moisture gets tonight.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris Raine »

We missed out.No rain with the weak SW change Quite windy this arvo with 20 -25 knot SW gusts
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 14:05 From Counties Energy: Storm WARNING!!!
Hi all- updated forecast for today. MetService has advised us this is going to be a very significant event, likely to cause widespread damage throughout our entire area - particularly Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas. Please share this with those on our west coast and do your storm prep!!! This is likely to cause some power lines down with winds of up to 140km forecast! Specific forecast for our area -
Severe Weather Watch issued for WIND, SEVERE GALES late Sat night and throughout Sunday.
Saturday - 10pm to 2am Sun: N gusts 80km/hr, up to 100km/hr on west coast.
Sunday
2am-7am: Wind increases. Widespread gusts 80-100km/hr. 100-120km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
7am to 10am: Widespread area N gusts 100-120km/hr.
10am to 4pm: Most SEVERE PERIOD. Extreme W winds Frequent/Widespread gusts 120km/hr.
120-140km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
4pm to 6pm: Winds turn S and quickly drop off.

Our crews are ready. Please do your storm prep and prepare for potential power outages. If you're on tank/bore water save some today! Charge your devices and get the torches ready. For outage prep tips and what to do if the power goes out - www.countiesenergy.co.nz/outage-tips

Check the Outages Hub for 24/7 info on outages - type app.countiesenergy.co.nz in your smartphone internet browser. Download it now!

Stay well clear of downed lines and call us immediately on 0800 100 202.
Stay safe!
Best of luck to you Brian, I fear this forecast may be underdone.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Tim is going to come and visit to wind chase tomorrow :)
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

I see ECANs Sumner site clocked 12mm in the last hour, over 20 for the day so far. Certainly wide variance even accross parts of the Port Hills. Only 2mm here at home in Halswell
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris W »

Very light here the past hour or so after that earlier heavy burst. Going to be a bit up and down through tomorrow and we're on the fringes of the heavier rain. Can smell the neighbours' fires starting up!
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