Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

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Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

My friends in West Coast Civil Defence are planning on serious impacts.

The past week has already caused long term impacts and this on top will be hard to swallow. Looks like widespread wind and rain for many of us this weekend

Hopefully it does what cyclones do often and doesn't linger
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote: Thu 10/02/2022 08:06
Hopefully it does what cyclones do often and doesn't linger
Unfortunately the reverse increasingly looks likely...
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by darcyplumb »

My in laws are due to cross Cook Strait on the ferry Monday night to head to Tauranga. Still a few days out yet but could be an interesting trip.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

watches out already from M/S for severe gales etc for northern NZ
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Awhituobs wrote: Thu 10/02/2022 11:16 watches out already from M/S for severe gales etc for northern NZ
I don't think anywhere in NZ except the deep south is going to escape the impact of this one
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

if the TC ends up crossing the Waitomo area, like forecasted, then we will get severe gale westerly winds here like a real bad winter/spring storm, but it will be hot and humid!
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Its starting to look like Taranaki is the place to watch out for the most
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by TonyT »

12Z plots continue to show varied outcomes.

EC has about 25% chance of a passage across the central NI, 25% of a death in the southern eastern-Tasman, and near 50% of a slow decay sitting off the NI west coast between Taranaki and Auckland. The EC operational run weakens the core rapidly over Sunday and has it pass northeastwards over the south Auckland or northern Waikato during Monday. While the area impacted by this path and decay would be much smaller than seen on Sunday, it could mean 48hrs plus of strong to gale winds for that particular location.
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GFS is very similar, but with a wider spread across the North Island, including several runs taking the centre across the Auckland/Waikato area and out into the Bay of Plenty, similar to the EC.
image.png
The Canadian still sees some potential for an eastern Tasman merry-go-round but seems to be favouring a passage from the west or even southwest across the Auckland region, again similar to the EC operational.
image.png
I think we can now be pretty confident the centre will lie off the NI west coast between Taranaki and Auckland on Sunday, which would put the zone of easterly gales from Taranaki through Kaikoura, and northwesterly gales from Northland through Waikato. Heaviest rain likely to be in the onshore flow from Mid Canterbury through Wairarapa. What happens after that is still up for debate though. The most likely scenario would see a slow decay and northeastwards movement over the Waikato area. [Cross posted from Cyclone Dove thread].
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

some rain here now...with a developing warm front
which was not initially shown by the models. but has now been picked up by the latest Euro model run
i was thinking surely we must get something with such a long fetch of moisture...
the dew point has gone back up to 22c here now
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Interesting looking at the different model runs for Wellington. most want to give around 100mm or thereabouts. ICON is gone rougue and delivers 230mm on Sunday. Pin the tail on the donkey continues
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

23c dew point here now, crazy
6mm of nice rain
update, 23.5c dew point! (and 100% humidity)
update: we are in the clouds, 100% humidity, and dew point is now 23.7, as that is the air temperature (which is slowly rising)
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Chris W »

Snow lines appearing on the Metservice 3-day charts, so potentially the alpine passes get affected by that on Sunday as the cyclone drags up a southerly in its wake. Going to be a contrast in felt temperatures either side of the weekend.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

you would think this very humid and warm air mass over the north island
will either help fuel the TC ,i.e so its makes it last longer as a warm cored system and so only slowly weaken
but then other times when a TC encounters cooler drier air, the large scale baroclinic leaf (warm front) speeds up the transition to ex tropical , and can also help a system maintain its strength (pressure and wind wise anyway)

ps, Norfolk Island is in the path, yes?
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Awhituobs wrote: Fri 11/02/2022 14:29
ps, Norfolk Island is in the path, yes?
Expected to pass nearby to the west as I understand reading the Aussie forecasters

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/norfolkisland.shtml
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

woa, possible 150kmh wind gusts
when was the last time Norfolk Island had a TC come this close and as strong as that?
(actually I do remember they did have a TC pass by once and was easily visible on their rain radar)
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Ash »

The humidity in Hawkes Bay is unreal.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by tich »

Chris W wrote: Fri 11/02/2022 14:15 Snow lines appearing on the Metservice 3-day charts, so potentially the alpine passes get affected by that on Sunday as the cyclone drags up a southerly in its wake. Going to be a contrast in felt temperatures either side of the weekend.
https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newsp ... 223.2.77.1

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newsp ... 9/02/23/10

Could be like this event. (ex-tropical cyclone involved to some extent)
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

24.4c here at 9pm and 97% humidity (DP is 23.9)
and raining
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The outside conditions are remarkable, so warm and humid!
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

Latest GFS really wants to nudge it south...
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Razor wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 01:07 Latest GFS really wants to nudge it south...
The radar has it much further south than any model run... by a good 200km
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Awhituobs »

models have it crossing Waitomo area sunday morning now instead of afternoon
severe gales for here
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

The heavy moisture that is currently over northern Westland... nothing to that extent is being picked up on any model.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by Razor »

snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 07:51 The heavy moisture that is currently over northern Westland... nothing to that extent is being picked up on any model.
I think you mean northern Buller, not Westland...
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Razor wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 08:12
snowchaser01 wrote: Sat 12/02/2022 07:51 The heavy moisture that is currently over northern Westland... nothing to that extent is being picked up on any model.
I think you mean northern Buller, not Westland...
Yes Buller, my mistake
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