NZ Weather Forum

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:28 Appears to be falling directly over the Buller River catchment too.

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:30

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:28 Appears to be falling directly over the Buller River catchment too.

Yep a concerning situation. It seems this whole thing is significantly further south than forecast.
Edit: models had that rain band pretty much through the middle of cook strait... compare that to current radar images.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:36

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:30

Yep a concerning situation. It seems this whole thing is significantly further south than forecast.
Edit: models had that rain band pretty much through the middle of cook strait... compare that to current radar images.

I see Buller Emergency management said last night that they don’t expect the rainfall this weekend to cause flooding… surely they learned their lesson after the other day? I think that’s a very premature statement to make. That rain band is much further south than Cook Strait. I think this whole event could play out a lot differently than forecast and everyone in the potential impact areas need to be watching the conditions closely.

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:38

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:36
I see Buller Emergency management said last night that they don’t expect the rainfall this weekend to cause flooding… surely they learned their lesson after the other day? I think that’s a very premature statement to make. That rain band is much further south than Cook Strait. I think this whole event could play out a lot differently than forecast and everyone in the potential impact areas need to be watching the conditions closely.

Agree completely. The fact that this is further south has obvious impacts for Buller, but also over here in Canterbury.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 08:47 the heaviest rain is now moving into cook straight area, as predicted by the models
the rain north of West port on the radar looks to be from the baroclinic leaf cloud sheet, i.e high based, and so will not be the orographic onshore heavy rain type which would be bad , as the wind is SE in that area
onshore flow for north canterbury and Kaikoura looks like will be lots of rain , on the flip side

Razor wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 09:58 She's pretty wet here in the ChCh right now, I'd call it sodden with thick persistent heavy drizzle and very still

Metservice wrote:Strong Wind Warning - Orange
Period:

18hrs from 10pm Sat, 12 Feb - 4pm Sun, 13 Feb
Area:

Auckland
Forecast:

North to northeast gales are forecast to be severe at times, with mean speeds of 80 km/h (and gusts of 100 km/h) till Sunday morning (Reduced criterion for northeast gales). Then southwest gales are forecast to be severe Sunday morning and afternoon, with gusts of 120 km/h, but briefly possibly 130 km/h. Upgraded to Orange Warning
Impact:

Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures. Driving may be hazardous, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.

Chris Raine wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 10:48 I can see the outflow cloud(Cirrostratus) to the far northeast from my weather enclosure at 0900.Underneath we have an incoming cloud sheet from a weak feature that I hope will bring some showers today

Razor wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 16:34 Been running up in the Port Hills for a couple of hours. Constant thick heavy rain and drizzle the whole time. The trails are mini waterfalls/ rivers. Looks like a vigourous wee convergence zone going by the radar. I'd say some localised flooding issues in areas near the hills before too long

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 14:05 From Counties Energy: Storm WARNING!!!
Hi all- updated forecast for today. MetService has advised us this is going to be a very significant event, likely to cause widespread damage throughout our entire area - particularly Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas. Please share this with those on our west coast and do your storm prep!!! This is likely to cause some power lines down with winds of up to 140km forecast! Specific forecast for our area -
Severe Weather Watch issued for WIND, SEVERE GALES late Sat night and throughout Sunday.
Saturday - 10pm to 2am Sun: N gusts 80km/hr, up to 100km/hr on west coast.
Sunday
2am-7am: Wind increases. Widespread gusts 80-100km/hr. 100-120km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
7am to 10am: Widespread area N gusts 100-120km/hr.
10am to 4pm: Most SEVERE PERIOD. Extreme W winds Frequent/Widespread gusts 120km/hr.
120-140km/hr Awhitu Peninsula and Port Waikato/Waikaretu areas.
4pm to 6pm: Winds turn S and quickly drop off.

Our crews are ready. Please do your storm prep and prepare for potential power outages. If you're on tank/bore water save some today! Charge your devices and get the torches ready. For outage prep tips and what to do if the power goes out - www.countiesenergy.co.nz/outage-tips

Check the Outages Hub for 24/7 info on outages - type app.countiesenergy.co.nz in your smartphone internet browser. Download it now!

Stay well clear of downed lines and call us immediately on 0800 100 202.
Stay safe!