Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 17:26
Up to 16mm for the day here in Northwood and it's hosing down still. Another 40mm overnight maybe... can't remember a wetter February.
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Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 17:28
Constant drizzle and 8/8 overcast and grey today. Direct opposite of Jamies's posting of it being like on a tropical island.
More of a Campbell Island like weather here today. Might light the fire shortly
More of a Campbell Island like weather here today. Might light the fire shortly
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 17:32
Interesting to see that the southerly on radar has just joined the main moisture in North Canterbury.. and intensifying rapidly.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 17:41
one thing that will make the wind strong through the Auckland area, is the airmass is relatively stable on the north side of the low
(i.e upper levels are warm)
and so it will not like having to cross any mountain ranges
and so any areas that are wind tunnels at the best of times will get hit hard, yes?
(i.e upper levels are warm)
and so it will not like having to cross any mountain ranges
and so any areas that are wind tunnels at the best of times will get hit hard, yes?
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 17:51
Rain has gotten heavier after having only started at 4.30, I could see that air mass cloud moving up but hasn't bought any wind with it though.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 17:32 Interesting to see that the southerly on radar has just joined the main moisture in North Canterbury.. and intensifying rapidly.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 18:03
24mm and counting
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 18:47
Really starting to set in over Chch now, I maintain this whole thing is 100-200km further south than what models are saying and that has implications for how much rain will fall in populated areas.
28mm here
28mm here
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 18:48
That southerly combining with the cyclone's moisture was always going to trigger the heaviest rain. Wind picking up a little now and the rain a bit heavier as well.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 18:55
The current rain in Canterbury is nothing to do with the "cyclone's moisture". The heavy rain was always going happen, cyclone or not, because the airmass in the trough is so warm and moist through such a depth. Why do you think the cyclone is not decaying more rapidly than it is? Because its surfing along inside a broad unstable trough. The moisture was always there, and was always going to precipitate out as the airmass cooled. This rain was locked in a week ago, before the cyclone was even a thing.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 18:56
Not all models have given the same answer today. Some have performed well.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 18:47 Really starting to set in over Chch now, I maintain this whole thing is 100-200km further south than what models are saying and that has implications for how much rain will fall in populated areas.
28mm here
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:02
Agree Dovi will make landfall south of Egmont... imho.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:08
Getting very windy here in Chch. Southerly, strong gusts and light rain. Halswell.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:22
Just been for a drive around the neighborhood. Some very decent surface flooding around these parts already
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:43
Heavy rain and a solid southerly gale. That escalated quickly. Thanks for that observation btw Tony. I wonder if we will ever see a Cyclone Giselle scenario one day in the future, southerly hits extra tropical storm just in the sweet spot.
Not today of course
Not today of course
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:48
Really starting to set in on radar images now... going to be a wet night with potentially some problems in the morning.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 19:56
MS rain model just ramped up quite significantly for Chch
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:03
Same will follow for HB
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:09
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:37
Living in Te Aroha do you think this is going to be significant wind wise for us?
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:37
NIWA rain prognosis looks pretty bad for Kaikoura, Marlborough and especially Wellington/ Tararuas
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:39
its still on track to pass over Waitomo area, the centre
You can see the center easier on the visible sat image
You can see the center easier on the visible sat image
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 20:58
Calm your farm Tony. Not sure what that's about.TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 12/02/2022 18:55The current rain in Canterbury is nothing to do with the "cyclone's moisture". The heavy rain was always going happen, cyclone or not, because the airmass in the trough is so warm and moist through such a depth. Why do you think the cyclone is not decaying more rapidly than it is? Because its surfing along inside a broad unstable trough. The moisture was always there, and was always going to precipitate out as the airmass cooled. This rain was locked in a week ago, before the cyclone was even a thing.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 21:12
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 21:58
Heavy rain in St Albans.
Re: Cyclone Dovi- impacts on NZ
Posted: Sat 12/02/2022 22:09
Temperature has actually been rising here as the winds pick up this evening… up to 24.8 now