General March Weather

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Awhituobs
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

what are the predictions for winter
there is a hint that la nina is not fading as quickly as predicted
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Extremely heavy shower here in Lincoln right now
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Pouring down here in Ashburton currently...
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Remains of yesterday's front?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris Raine wrote: Wed 16/03/2022 14:19 Remains of yesterday's front?
Convective uplift in the slightly unstable onshore flow.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Awhituobs wrote: Wed 16/03/2022 11:25 what are the predictions for winter
there is a hint that la nina is not fading as quickly as predicted
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Looks like we are heading to a third season of Nina. The last multi (3) year event was 98-01, and the only event sine 1950 to see Nina strengthen in its third year was 1975. It looks as though we will see Nino trying (and failing) to become established through our winter and spring, and Nina holding on in the mid and western Pacific.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Well if Nina hangs on do we end up with a dryish autumn and early winter?.Looking at the models fronts coming across the Tasman are being pushed northwards as they approach the South Island with their rain bands hugging the West Coast and leaving Southland dry.The anticyclones to the south and east of Southland are not giving way easily.Fronts weaken and peter out.The north easterly wind regime has lost its moisture by the time it tracks across Southland.16mm for the month so far
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris Raine wrote: Wed 16/03/2022 21:16 Well if Nina hangs on do we end up with a dryish autumn and early winter?.Looking at the models fronts coming across the Tasman are being pushed northwards as they approach the South Island with their rain bands hugging the West Coast and leaving Southland dry.The anticyclones to the south and east of Southland are not giving way easily.Fronts weaken and peter out.The north easterly wind regime has lost its moisture by the time it tracks across Southland.16mm for the month so far
Yes. Currently our best analog is 2010, described as a dry, sunny winter for Southland.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Thanks Tony but would be good to get some rain heading into winter to fill up water tanks and give some plant moisture.Any chances there?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Chris Raine wrote: Wed 16/03/2022 22:00 Thanks Tony but would be good to get some rain heading into winter to fill up water tanks and give some plant moisture.Any chances there?
There's always chances, but the odds currently favour drier than normal to continue overall.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Overcast and "Freezing" all day here with 8/8 grey Ns cloud cover and occasional drizzle/light rain from afternoon.
14.9C for today with 3.8mm of drizzle/light rain.
These anticyclones bring dismal weather here with this La Nina and dry weather to Southland but then it could be fine and sunny inland?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

John I am surprised at your dismal weather. Everytime I have visited Geraldine the weather has been nice to stroll in your parks and mooch around your shopping centre.Is it because you have hills at the back of the town or other idiosyncrasies that impact on your weather?How do your winters compare to other parts of South Canterbury?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Chris Raine wrote: Thu 17/03/2022 03:28 John I am surprised at your dismal weather. Everytime I have visited Geraldine the weather has been nice to stroll in your parks and mooch around your shopping centre.Is it because you have hills at the back of the town or other idiosyncrasies that impact on your weather?How do your winters compare to other parts of South Canterbury?
For sunny warm weather in Geraldine the westerly pattern works best because of all the shelter to the west and a fohn wind, easterly pattern there is no shelter. Also westerly pattern can bring hot air off Australia and that has been cut off this year.
March weather pattern has been for good here, Auckland airport with 13 days over 25C, lowest maximum 24.6C, sunny, no rain. Rain/ showers here early next week with an unusual looking low system for the time of year, a big cool upper system crossing NZ, plenty of instability in the model.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

with an essentially cut off low and upper cold air and very warm for the time of year sea temperatures, could be potential for Tornadoes
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by jamie »

500mb temps for Monday Tuesday Wednesday are looking -17 to -20 over the north island. Could be a good few days of storms.


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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Chris Raine wrote: Thu 17/03/2022 03:28 John I am surprised at your dismal weather. Everytime I have visited Geraldine the weather has been nice to stroll in your parks and mooch around your shopping centre.Is it because you have hills at the back of the town or other idiosyncrasies that impact on your weather?How do your winters compare to other parts of South Canterbury?
I've been here 4 years and this summer seems to be the coldest and cloudiest since we have been here.
There have been the odd fine days with summery temperatures but this year especially February, it has been rather cloudy and overcast with no sunshine especially after cold front dragging in anticyclonic weather which this year seems to be very cloud related. This week is a good example where on Monday it was a blue dome day and pleasant temperatures. when the cold front went through overnight, it clouded up and we haven't seen the sun since then, despite hPa readings exceeding the 1030 hPa mark.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Thanks John.Like you we have anticyclonic gloom this week.No sun since last Saturday and only 1.9mm of rain in the last five days.The ground is green in paddocks but no or little grass growth. Many rural farm tanks are running dry.The ground is the driest for the last 50 years.Drought has appeared at Tiwai Point and Stewart Island.The 2010 year was a cool dry year and this winter may be similar to that year.If so that was my first winter in Oamaru which was cool and cloudy quite depressing.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Thanks Chris for your comments.
It's been an anticyclonic gloomy weather year so far here and down there obviously. It's very green here and lush for the time of year. there have been a few attempts at stubble burn-offs in paddocks around here but not very successful because of the damp ground conditions.
Really boring stagnant weather so far for 2022. No storms to liven thing up :(
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

0.7mm of drizzle overnight and another day of clagg with light NE. 15.5C the maximum for today.
Might get a chance to see the sun tomorrow, first day since Monday to put on these 8)
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Looking at the European , American and British models the chances of rain this weekend look grim.The incoming front will shunt north with strong ridging to south and east of us.
I know a number of rural families are now using their stock tanks to put water to the house tanks and hope the filters work effectively.Models indicating only 2mm by the end of March.The only hope is that the forecasters can see through the models and that rain will fall where it is desperately needed.
Last edited by Chris Raine on Fri 18/03/2022 10:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: General March Weather

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The battery in the main outdoor unit (ISS) of my station died early this morning… not much warning on the console, only saw the low battery warning for the first time yesterday. Thankfully was able to pop up to countdown at 7am and popped a replacement in before the morning low was reached :lol:
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by David »

Was super surprised to see a heavy rain watch issued. Metservice expecting an active convergence zone tonight into tomorrow morning
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by spwill »

A complete switch from endless dry to quite a wet pattern for us. Looking at the early part of next week the upper levels are cool with very moist low levels, any convergence will lead to the risk of thunderstorms, something to watch.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Friday has been looking like a bit of rain due to a passing easterly trough in the models for a while..but they had backed off..then have been re stating the rain again latest runs
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by David »

Pretty good rain here, almost 7mm already :smile:

Finally had an autumn feel today, 21C max
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