General March Weather

[Chris Raine]

Front made landfall at 0300 this morning. Gave 0.4mm and front has pushed off shore again onto Stewart Island

[Richard]

Front made landfall at 0300 this morning. Gave 0.4mm and front has pushed off shore again onto Stewart Island

bugger

[cbm]

I know it's only long range model output but look how far South the EC has the high pressure by next week.

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Too much claggy anticyclonic weather going on resulting in cloudy skies here on the east coast of Te Waipounamu and lots of rain falling on eastern coasts of Australia.
Today it was much better here with a maximum of 21C with partly cloudy skies with light south to SE winds and sunny for a while this afternoon before clagg rolled in later this afternoon and evening.

[Simon Culling]

Glad to see that you are enjoying some nice warm seas to swim in. Despite a warming trend here in the UK, it is not usually a pleasant experience swimming in our cold waters, even in the summer. A wet suit is a prerequisite for the surfers down here in Cornwall + Devon.

Your chaps at NIWA think that the 'marine heatwaves' will get warmer and longer lasting in years to come. Will this affect fish stocks and indeed, what fish you might catch in NZ waters?

https://niwa.co.nz/news/mean-heat-marin ... er-by-2100

[harleyb]

Here's an interesting projection for next week. It's not often that you see a low coming in from the east like this. Of course its just a forecast but an interesting one nonetheless. I have been planning to do some fieldwork up Mahia way for late next week, but now I'm having second thoughts on that... see what happens

gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_fh6-240.gif

Edit: GFS output in the GIF -- ECMWF is showing something similar

[spwill]

Yes, an interesting east coast low is modelled for next week, the rain looks mostly aimed at Gisborne/Hawkes Bay with the onshore flow there and orographic lift.

Re the warm sea temperatures, Auckland has not had a genuine cool day since November, the warm sea temperatures will be playing some part in that.

[TonyT]

Here's an interesting projection for next week. It's not often that you see a low coming in from the east like this. Of course its just a forecast but an interesting one nonetheless. I have been planning to do some fieldwork up Mahia way for late next week, but now I'm having second thoughts on that... see what happens
gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_fh6-240.gif

Edit: GFS output in the GIF -- ECMWF is showing something similar

Euro is more bullish on rainfall than GFS for North Canterbury northwards, and Access for the whole east coast. It going to be an interesting week - a full on humid easterly assault on the country.

[harleyb]

MetService have an eye on it now...

--
Severe Weather Outlook

Potential significant weather event for parts of central New Zealand next week.

On Monday, a low is forecast to approach the North Island from the northeast and may become slow moving near Gisborne on Tuesday. This system is expected to direct a moist southerly flow over central and northern parts of New Zealand. The strength of the associated winds and amount of rainfall expected is dependent on the position and intensity of the low. At this stage, there is still some uncertainty as to its exact track and intensity. However, there is the potential for this system to bring significant rainfall to Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, and severe gales to parts of the lower North Island and Marlborough Sounds.

On Monday and Tuesday, there is LOW confidence of rainfall amounts exceeding warning criteria in Gisborne and the Wairoa District, and then for eastern parts of Taihape and the remainder of Hawkes Bay on Tuesday. In addition, there is LOW confidence of severe gale south to southeasterly winds in exposed parts of the lower North Island from Taranaki across to eastern Bay of Plenty southwards, and also for the Marlborough Sounds, as depicted on the chart.

In addition, large south to southeast waves and coastal inundation are possible in Hawkes Bay and Gisborne later on Tuesday.

[Chris Raine]

Norm for this summer.Other than some rain from the Tasman low and not much of that we will miss out.Water tank below a quarter full.The low trending west east of Gisborne should give a dollop for that area.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A complete day of clagg here today. Grey skies, no sunshine with not much wind. 17.8C the maximum for today.

[Awhituobs]

had amazing weather in Fiordland , apart from the monday, fantastic photos
Very little snow on the southern alps as you fly over

[David]

62% humidity here at 7am. Kinda unusual to have air that dry at this time of day

[David]

Metservice forecasting 28 on Sunday! In 12 years of records the highest temperature I have for March is 27.4C

[Nev]

Metservice forecasting 28 on Sunday! In 12 years of records the highest temperature I have for March is 27.4C

Would be fairly rare for the airport as well...

Highest March temps (°C) recorded at Akld Aero:
29.8 .. 1999 Mar 11
28.0 .. 2015 Mar 14
27.9 .. 2020 Mar 01
27.7 .. 1990 Mar 12
27.5 .. 2019 Mar 17

[spwill]

Auckland in the cool cloudy flow coming around the High today.

Keeping a watch on dewpoint temperatures for next week, I think moisture will be the main variable as to whether we can get some showers here next week.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

had amazing weather in Fiordland , apart from the monday, fantastic photos
Very little snow on the southern alps as you fly over

Same here for Kapiti Island.
Yes, I did notice the lack of snow across the Southern alps on our flight back home.

[Chris Raine]

Tasman front gave a Trace of rain.Tiwai Point area getting into drought.This is not good.Been blowing hard this arvo 20 to 30 knots at times from NW
.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

After the clearance of fog/mist overnight and this morning, the day turned out to be a mild nor-westerly sort of day.
A change from all the clagg we get with these anticyclones following a front, could be on the cards tomorrow with the next southerly change
High cloud developing with a NW Arch for much of the day with winds from the north to NW here.
Today's maximum was 24.3C. Mild evening. 22C at 10pm.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Southerly wasn't much around 11am here, been NE to east here this afternoon and a nice, sunny day for a change

[Richard]

Brought in the cloud here John. Still a nice till then.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Brought in the cloud here John. Still a nice till then.

Expecting a claggy end to the day but actually it has been quite fine with clear blues skies to the south. Still a light easterly blowing here.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

As in my posting above, expecting clagg with the southerly but it resulted in being a fine sunny day with wind reverting back to the east this afternoon.
Today's maximum was 24.7C.
However low cloud moving in later this evening.

[Chris Raine]

The weak front that crossed over post the Tasman Sea low x Australia arrived at 0500 with a squally westerly change gale for 30 minutes.I got 2.5mm out of it.Nice to have a typical westerly blowing for a change.Not very evident this summer period and where we get most of our rain.Still need much more rain to improve soil deficit

[David]

We are down to 6mm in the last 30 days. Have noticed cracks opening up in the ground again in the last week.