NZ Weather Forum

I see Weathergeek has the prog map with the x Fili low sailing pass Brian's site next week at Awhitu before it crosses the North Island and a deep low at that

haha
was actually planning to be up north (Hokianga) , doing the coast to coast cycle trail...monday and tuesday...
hummm

The Access (UKmet?) model has it back to being a direct hit
Wahine storm type intensity too

Just out of interest, I thought I would take a moment to capture the forecast for 6 days out from the 3 models. We can look back next week to compare with what eventuated! (Yep I know - a LONG way out and all that.)
[Edited to fix naming]

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Fri 08/04/2022 12:55 Just out of interest, I thought I would take a moment to capture the forecast for 6 days out from the 3 models. We can look back next week to compare with what eventuated! (Yep I know - a LONG way out and all that.)

ECMWF.jpg

GFS.jpg

ICON.jpg

What you have labelled as Icon is in fact AccessG, you might want to edit that. Here are some others: ICON UKMO GEM Canadian Unified

looking at the sat image, the associated cloud sheets are surprisingly expansive (west/east) (the whole thing has been flattened up against the high pressure I guess a bit)

It's looking increasingly likely that the surf is going to be excellent for the east coast next weekend. On a negative note, if these forecasts hold, the east coast of the North Island is going to take a battering from massive waves. Beachfront erosion is going to be mental.

Latest Metservice mapping suggsts they favour a glancing blow with it staying to the NE of the NI

Mod Note:
Thought it might be an idea to have a separate thread for Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ in the NZ section.
So have moved some of today's recent posts here.

latest Euro model run has it a more direct hit

Sadly Gisborne/Tairawhiti might cop it again

Met Service forecast track now shifted further west

MS's latest track-map hedging even a little more further west, which seems to be the model consensus at this stage (maybe even a little more).

Looking pretty interesting on most main models this evening. A lot of water to go under the bridge yet but could be a good one. Hopefully the fast nature of the storm will spare Gisborne / East Cape from too much more damage.

MS's track this evening has moved Fili even further west over the North Island...

MetVUW forecasts show a very wet period for the Hawkes Bay region after FILI has blown through.

Will this low be a bomb low? (Bombing over NZ)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not a lot of change to this morning's MS track-map re the North Island...

jamie wrote: ↑Sun 10/04/2022 08:55 Will this low be a bomb low? (Bombing over NZ)

Models currently only showing about a 12 15 hPa drop over 24 hours, but anything's possible at this stage...
It's certainly looking like it will be a pretty intense low though.

If a low that us transitioning to cool system encounters cold air, does that give it fuel for intensification? In this instance, do the cold fronts moving up through the Tasman mark a surge of cold air?

Ash wrote: ↑Sun 10/04/2022 10:05 If a low that us transitioning to cool system encounters cold air, does that give it fuel for intensification? In this instance, do the cold fronts moving up through the Tasman mark a surge of cold air?

In theory, yes. In this case, the cold front is expected to disintegrate over the SI, and the cold air won't make it far enough north to significantly interact with the depression. That said, the depression is forecast to undergo some significant deepening whilst just north of NZ and on its way through.

I got a tweet from NIWA saying an upper air vorticity maximum over SE Australia will trundle across the Tasman Sea and mix with Fili spinning it up and deepening it early this coming week.Where does the sub tropical jet fit into this?Is Fili south or north of the jet?

Chris Raine wrote: ↑Sun 10/04/2022 11:51 I got a tweet from NIWA saying an upper air vorticity maximum over SE Australia will trundle across the Tasman Sea and mix with Fili spinning it up and deepening it early this coming week.Where does the sub tropical jet fit into this?Is Fili south or north of the jet?

The subtropical jet-stream is currently south of Fili.

Here's what it looks like at midday today...
Compared to midday this Wednesday (GFS)...

How does a jet stream affect the storm?

Ash wrote: ↑Sun 10/04/2022 18:29 How does a jet stream affect the storm?

In quite a few ways. It can "steer" the storm; it can create shear which could destroy the storm; the entry and exit points of the jet can generate positive or negative vorticity centres which can deepen or fill the vortex. Its a complex interaction!